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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  摩根士丹利发布研报称,料友邦保险(01299)首季新业务价值(按固定汇率)升6.9%,主要受到平均资本回报率(APE)增加7.3%及毛利持平在54.2%的支持。该行相信,放缓属暂时性,并持续估计新业务价值增长今年上半年及全年均增长12%,认为公司估值吸引。该行予公司目标价81港元,评级“增持”。

  该行指,内地拖累增长,受假设变更影响,新业务价值料跌8%,但预测可比基准将实现增长,并预计今年全年新业务价值增长约为10%。该行另料,泰国的新业务价值增长可达28%,主要受到新业务保费增长和利润率扩大的推动,中国香港在疫情后有望创下历史新高,实现增长13%。

  文丨尚扬 

  今日,市场热点全面开花,消费类板块全线爆发,其中旅游酒店、休闲食品、预制菜、养老产业、冰雪产业甚至宠物经济等均涨幅居前。业内人士表示,消费板块一直在走牛市,年内还会有一批同行者走出来,准则就是寻找选择具备护城河,且极致性价比的公司。

  政策频出

  消费股全面上行

  近日,商务部等9部门联合印发《服务消费提质惠民行动2025年工作方案》,围绕加强政策支持、开展促进活动、搭建平台载体、扩大对外开放、强化标准引领、优化消费环境等6个方面,提出48条具体任务举措,既涵盖了餐饮、住宿、健康、文化娱乐、旅游休闲、体育赛事等主要行业领域,也包括了旅游列车、空中游览、跳伞飞行、超高清电视、微短剧等新业态、新场景。

  在此前,商务部、国家卫生健康委等12部门还印发了《促进健康消费专项行动方案》,提出了提升健康饮食消费水平、大力发展体育旅游产业、增强银发市场服务能力、组织健康消费促进活动等10方面重点任务。

  4月17日,消费类板块涨势不俗,旅游酒店、休闲食品、预制菜、养老产业、冰雪产业甚至宠物经济均涨幅居前。个股中,华天酒店、桂发祥、五芳斋、南京商旅、益佰制药(维权)等公司纷纷冲上涨停。

  旅游股爆发

  宠物食品股长期走牛

  在消费板块中,旅游股集体爆发,除华天酒店、南京商旅涨停外,金陵饭店等同样涨停,君亭酒店、天润科技、宋城演艺等跟涨(见图1)。

  随着“五一”黄金周的临近,旅游市场迎来新一轮爆发期。4月16日,铁路12306系统开始发售4月30日,即五一假期前一日车票,用户访问量随即激增,“12306崩了”登上热搜。

  且此前经文化和旅游部数据中心测算,2025年3天清明假期,全国国内出游1.26亿人次,国内游客出游总花费575.49亿元,同比分别增长6.3%、6.7%,较2019年同期分别增长19%、20%。计算客单价为457元/人次,同比2024年微增0.4%,较2019年有1%增长。

  业内人士表示,随着各目的地还在持续收客中,2025年五一黄金周市场热度有望创下历史新高。国内游及出境游“双向增长”特征明显,深度游、度假游成为旅游市场新引擎。

  同程旅行之前发布的假期预测报告显示,今年五一假期的旅行热度或将达到2023年以来的峰值,出行高峰预计出现在假期前两日。

  目前旅游板块中已有25家公司发布了正式的2024年年报,其中17家公司去年全年实现盈利,同时实现营业收入、净利润同比增长的公司有5家(见表1)。增势最好的岭南控股,公司涵盖了旅行社、酒店、餐饮、会展、景区等业态的产业链布局。年报显示,公司营业总收入实现43.09亿元,同比增长25.43%;实现归母净利润1.5亿元,同比增长116.08%。

  但长期来看,消费板块中的细分赛道宠物食品公司的走势更是一骑绝尘。今日盘中,乖宝宠物再次刷新历史高点(见图2),自2023年8月登陆创业板以来,累计涨幅已近70%。路斯股份自去年三季度末以来,股价也是持续震荡走高,今日盘中21.87元/股的最高价,较2024年12月3日创出的22元/股的历史高点仅一步之遥。类似的还有中宠股份,最新股价也创出了近3年新高。

  机构近期积极调研

  目前,上市公司2025年一季报披露尚只是冰山一角,机构投资者一季度末的持仓图谱还需等待时日。但结合今年以来的机构调研情况可以看到,部分旅游酒店、宠物食品类公司得到了机构投资者们的积极关注,期间机构投资者们纷纷对其发起调研。

  如参与调研机构家数最多的君亭酒店,机构们对其与希尔顿战略合作高端酒店有哪些进展,未来与希尔顿是否有进一步合作等问题极为关注。公司表示,去年11月,君亭酒店集团与希尔顿集团签署了战略合作意向书,标志着双方将在高端酒店领域展开深入合作。此次合作得到了希尔顿集团高层的高度重视,全球CEO克里斯托弗·纳塞塔、亚太区总裁以及中国区总裁均出席了签约仪式。希尔顿选择与君亭合作,一方面是因为君亭作为一家本土成长起来的中国公司,在中国市场具有强大的运营能力和品牌影响力;另一方面,希尔顿在中国市场深耕多年,拥有丰富的经验和资源。双方的合作将聚焦于高端酒店的品牌、管理和会员服务等方面。

  再比如一家宠物食品龙头公司,得到了15家机构的关注调研。

  针对公司作为国货头部宠物食品品牌,如何强化品牌势能的问题。公司给出的解答是,结合宠物行业变化的趋势洞察,较早即确定了品牌战略,持续做大做强核心品牌,发力高端品牌,当前已进一步验证公司高端化品牌塑造能力。展望未来,在产品基础上,公司将继续以品质领先战略为核心,以技术创新为基础,进一步聚焦研发,强化产品全链路设计的严谨性与科学性,以用户思维来进行产品全生命周期视角下的场景化表达;在品牌塑造上,公司将继续以满足中国市场消费需求为目标,推动公司产品的品牌力和品牌体验升级,公司还将进一步优化公司品牌架构,聚焦细分市场扩大品牌份额;在运营策略上,以打造超级大单品为主,线上线下协同推广,数据牵引优化运营效率。

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