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权臣hlH将军皇上-揭示性价比背后的真相与价值
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权臣hlH将军皇上-揭示性价比背后的真相与价值

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  本周,西部证券、国金证券、华西证券等多家券商将公布年报。

  A股年报季进入收官阶段,上市券商也掀起了第二波业绩披露高峰,这次的主角是中小券商。

  继2023年亏损近三千万元后,国盛证券母公司国盛金控(002670.SZ)在2024年扭亏为盈。据国盛金控4月22日披露,2024年全年,公司实现营收20.07亿元,同比增长7.11%;实现净利润1.67亿元,2023年同期亏损2998.41万元。其中,国盛证券贡献了95%的营收。

  根据安排,本周(4月21日至25日)还将有西部证券(002673.SZ)、国金证券(600109.SH)、华西证券(002926.SZ)等多家券商公布年报。

  今年3月底,包括“三中一华”在内,20余家上市券商掀起第一波年报披露高峰,初步勾勒出证券行业过去一年的业绩概貌。进入4月,东兴证券、首创证券等中小券商,陆续披露业绩。Wind统计显示,截至目前,34家上市券商或母公司披露了2024年年报,其中,超六成去年营收正增长,超八成实现归母净利润正增长。

  券商年报披露收官在即,市场分析人士普遍表示,看好证券行业去年的业绩表现。同时,今年以来,市场交投活跃度回升,业内对今年一季度乃至上半年的券商表现,同样充满期待。

  国盛证券净利增近六成

  今年2月下旬,国盛金控完成了对国盛证券的吸收合并,后者由此实现“曲线上市”。

  2024年1月,国盛金控提出,将吸收合并全资子公司国盛证券,称吸收合并旨在聚焦证券主业,更好发挥国盛证券作为江西省属唯一证券全牌照企业的作用。

  历时一年有余,该事项在今年2月获证监会核准。根据公告,吸收合并完成后,国盛证券解散,国盛金控名称变更为国盛证券股份有限公司。

  被吸收合并之前,国盛证券是国盛金控的核心子公司,并成为后者最重要的收入来源。2020年至2023年,国盛金控的营业收入中,超过八成由国盛证券贡献。

  Wind数据显示,上述统计期间,国盛金控实现营收22.06亿元、23.48亿元、18.94亿元和18.74亿元,同期国盛证券的营收分别为19.04亿元、20.47亿元、15.46亿元和17.13亿元,占比均超过八成。

  到了2024年,国盛金控对国盛证券的“依赖”更明显,当年营收几乎全部来自国盛证券。

  最新披露的年报显示,2024年,国盛金控实现营收20.07亿元、净利润1.67亿元,分别同比增长7.11%和658.34%。国盛证券实现营收19.07亿元,同比增幅为5.23%,占母公司营收总额的95%;实现净利润3.47亿元,同比增长56.06%。

  分业务板块来看,经纪和自营业务,是国盛证券2024年表现最亮眼的两大业务,合计贡献了超八成营收。

  从主营业务增幅来看,据披露,国盛证券2024年自营收入4.33亿元,同比增幅超过六成;资管、经纪业务当期收入则为0.24亿元、10.86亿元,分别同比增长45.47%和11.22%。而投行、信用交易业务收入同比下滑,其中投行收入降幅超六成。

  本周还将有多家上市券商披露年报,涉及西部证券、国金证券、太平洋证券(601099.SH)等。再往后,东吴证券(601555.SH)、长城证券(002939.SZ)、长江证券(000783.SZ)等也将在月底交出年报成绩单。

  看好券商年报及一季报表现

  今年3月底,上市券商掀起第一波年报披露热潮,中信证券(600030.SH)、中金公司(601995.SH)、中国银河(601881.SH)等20多家券商公布业绩。

  进入本月,东兴证券(601198.SH)、浙商证券(601878.SH)、首创证券(601136.SH)相继“交卷”。这3家中,浙商证券去年营收下滑超10%,其余两家均实现增收增利。

  整体来看,Wind统计显示,截至目前,34家上市券商或母公司披露了2024年年报,合计实现营收超4800亿元。

  目前居业绩榜首位的是券商“一哥”中信证券,去年营收637.98亿元、归母净利润217.04亿元,同比分别增长了6.2%和10.06%。营收方面,国泰海通、华泰证券去年营收均超过400亿元,中国银河营收超300亿元,广发证券、申万宏源、中金公司等5家,营收超200亿元。

  截至目前,去年实现超百亿净利润的上市券商有5家,为中信证券、华泰证券、国泰海通、招商证券和中国银河。

  再从业绩增长动力来看,上述34家上市券商或母公司,超六成(22家)去年营收实现正增长,超八成(28家)去年归母净利润实现正增长。

  将两项指标结合来看,截至目前,去年实现增收增利的上市券商有22家。自营和经纪业务,成为这些券商业绩增长的主要驱动力。

  受“924”行情带动,A股去年四季度以来显著回暖,“靠天吃饭”的证券业也因此迎来强有力的业绩支撑。

  其中,广发证券、南京证券去年均实现了自营收入翻番。根据“自营收入=投资收益-对联营企业和合营企业的投资收益+公允价值变动净收益”计算,去年,南京证券、广发证券的自营收入分别为11.31亿元、77.54亿元,同比分别增长139.67%和117.38%。

  二级市场的企稳回升,也让一些中小券商扭转了自营亏损局面。华林证券去年自营业务收入4.85亿元,同比增长87.19%,2023年自营亏损0.42亿元。

  上市券商年报披露收官在即,市场分析人士普遍看好证券行业去年的业绩表现。

  “2024年,证券行业在政策催化与市场波动中实现困境反转。”中信建投非银及金融科技首席分析师赵然称,去年第三季度成为券商业绩的转折点,而自营与经纪业务是核心驱动力。

  分季度来看,赵然称,去年二、三季度,固收投资行情超预期,到了四季度,股票市场交投热度超预期等因素接续利好。

  据他观察,2024年,证券公司整体业绩表现,将呈现出“头部券商业绩分化,中小券商盈利弹性更大”的特征。而在头部券商之中,业绩分化也较过往更加明显,例如国泰君安、广发证券的净利润同比增速超过30%,中金公司利润增速为-3%。

  不仅如此,多位非银分析人士表示,看好今年一季度乃至上半年的券商业绩表现。

  东吴证券分析师孙婷援引数据称,今年一季度,万得全A指数涨幅1.9%,全市场日均股基成交额为1.7万亿,同比增长70%。“得益于市场行情上行及交投活跃度回升,一季度多家券商证券投资和财富管理业务快速发展,带动业绩高增。”她说。

  孙婷还表示,证券行业转型有望带来新的业务增长点。受益于市场回暖、政策环境友好,券商经纪业务、投行业务、资本中介业务等均受益。

  中信证券金融产业首席分析师田良称,聚焦2025年,证券行业有望依托高成交额、资本市场持续回暖以及成本控制进一步展现自身业绩弹性。

  “在2024年上半年偏低的业绩基数下,证券行业净利润同比增速有望在2025年上半年继续保持较高水平。”田良预计。

  具体业务方面,他分析称,今年以来,受市场利率低位,权益市场回暖以及财政政策影响,市场利率有所上行。具体到券商业务,他认为,一季度,固收类投资收益高速扩容的趋势可能暂缓。但在海外关税冲击及国内降准降息的环境下,固收投资收益变动仍值得期待。

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