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51热门大瓜黑料,解锁影视新体验,带你领略不一样的视听盛宴!
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51热门大瓜黑料,解锁影视新体验,带你领略不一样的视听盛宴!

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  来源:华尔街见闻

  美东时间4月16日周三,美国财政部公布国际资本流动报告(TIC)显示,今年2月美国的海外债主们持有的美国国债显著增长,为2021年6月以来的最大增幅。加拿大和日本是该月净买入量位居前列的国家,而该月正值美债市场近期动荡的前夕。

  截至今年2月末,美国以外国家持有的美国国债总额增加2900亿美元,达到创纪录的8.82万亿美元。当月,外国买家净购买了1062亿美元的长期美债和732亿美元的短期美债。

  日本2月所持美国国债增加466亿美元,是自2020年2月以来的最大增幅,至1.13万亿美元,为2024年4月以来的最高水平。自2019年6月持仓超越中国大陆以来,日本一直是美国国债最大的海外持有国。

  华尔街见闻网站此前提到,去年日本的美债持仓变动,一度被视为干预汇市压力下的调整。为了稳定日元汇率采取的干预需要日本掌握充足“弹药”,因此不得不减持包括美债在内的美元资产筹资。例如,有媒体援引数据称,去年7月日本投入366亿美元干预汇市。不过,去年8月和9月,日元兑美元强劲反弹,日本政府暂时没有支持日元的需求,失去了抛美债的一大动力。

  中国大陆2月所持美债增加235亿美元,至7843亿美元。当月中国净卖出了48亿美元的长期美国国债,同时净买入了151亿美元的短期国债。整体持有量的增长也部分反映了2月美国国债价格的上涨。

  从2022年4月起,中国大陆的美债持仓一直低于1万亿美元,截至今年2月,仍是仅次于日本的第二大美债持有国家地区。大体来说,中国大陆的美债持仓增加的月份与当月美债价格上涨吻合。

  分析普遍认为,鉴于中美关系变化和外储资产配置多元化的趋势,中国的美国国债持仓仍可能稳步下降。未来中国持仓的波动很大程度上仍受中美关系影响。

  近年来,中国大陆减持美债更多来自外储资产多元化配置的需要,提升黄金配置占比就是促进多元化配置的一种体现。截至去年4月,中国央行曾创纪录地连续18个月增持黄金,此后一度暂时收手,不过近来又恢复购入黄金的操作。本月稍早公布的数据显示,3月末中国黄金储备为7370万盎司,较2月末的7361万盎司增加9万盎司,这是自2024年11月以来,中国央行连续第五个月增持黄金储备。

  加拿大在1月净卖出美债后,2月美债持仓大幅反弹,净买入465亿美元的长期美债。有分析人士指出,今年1月,美国总统特朗普向加拿大施压,目前双边紧张局势进一步加剧。

  英国是第三大美债海外债主,2月持有量增加了101亿美元,达7503亿美元。

  开曼群岛(被认为是对冲基金等杠杆投资者的热门注册地)2月美债持有量增加了133亿美元,达到4178亿美元。市场人士表示,近期美国国债市场的波动部分源于对冲基金解除所谓的“基差交易”策略。

  周三的数据还显示,阿联酋今年前两个月的美债持仓大幅增加近430亿美元,总额达到1199亿美元,几乎是去年1月时的两倍。

  分析称,最新的TIC数据反映了特朗普宣布大规模加征关税约一个月前,外国投资者对美债的强烈需求。在其4月2日宣布关税措施后,29万亿美元的美国国债市场遭遇了自2001年以来最严重的抛售。

  未来几个月的TIC数据将被密切关注,以判断各国是否正在减少美债持有量。虽然4月的美债持仓数据要等到6月才会公布,但部分市场参与者对此说法持怀疑态度。从长期趋势看,外国投资者在美国国债市场中的占比已经从2008年超过一半的峰值下降,彭博汇编数据显示,近年来该占比约为30%。

  美国财政部的TIC数据还显示:

2月份,包括长期证券、美国短期证券、以及银行资金流的所有外资净流入总额为2847亿美元。其中,私人外资净流入为2293亿美元,官方外资净流入为554亿美元。2月份,外国居民增持了美国长期证券,净买入规模为1427亿美元。其中,外国私人投资者的净买入为1661亿美元,而外国官方机构则净卖出234亿美元。美国居民在1月份增持了长期外国证券,净买入规模为307亿美元。经过调整后,例如估计外国投资组合通过股票互换收购美国股票,1月份外国对长期证券的净卖出总额估计为1120亿美元。外国居民增持了短期证券美国国库券732亿美元。外国居民持有的所有以美元计价的短期美国证券和其他托管负债增加了799亿美元。银行自身对外国居民的以美元计价的净负债增加了928亿美元。

  美国财政部今年3月的TIC数据,定于2025年5月16日发布。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

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