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  来源:证券之星

  市场全天低开后震荡反弹,三大指数涨跌不一,沪指止步8连涨。

  盘面上,银行股维持强势,中、农、工、建四大行续创历史新高。地产、城镇化概念股集体走强,渝开发等多股涨停。5G概念股表现活跃,通宇通讯等涨停。下跌方面,大消费股集体调整,贝因美等多股跌停。

  截至收盘,沪指跌0.11%,深成指涨0.23%,创业板指涨0.27%。市场热点较为杂乱,个股跌多涨少,全市场超2700只个股下跌。沪深两市全天成交额9147亿,较上个交易日缩量848亿,创年内地量。

  01. 银行股攻势再起

  今日,A股市场震荡调整,沪指小幅收跌,两市成交额较之昨日再度萎缩,显示出资金仍然保守,观望情绪浓厚,整体操作偏向防御。

  首先,银行股再度逆势活跃,中、农、工、建四大行续创历史新高。

  今年以来,险资频频举牌银行股,背后或是红利属性凸显、战略协同需求和防御性配置多重因素共振。中国银河证券表示,降准降息预期增强,低利率环境延续,叠加全球政治经济环境不确定性,资金避险属性提升,银行股息率性价比凸显。

  其次,6G概念、通信设备等板块同样于盘中活跃。

  消息面上,工信部表示,下一步将在推动科技创新和产业创新融合的深度上下功夫,凝聚产学研用各方力量,加快推进6G技术研发、标准制定、中试验证和产业落实,加强通信、感知、智能、计算等融合技术突破,前瞻布局和培育面向6G的应用产业生态。

  此外,近期强势的大消费方向陷入整理,旅游酒店与乳业等方向领跌,贝因美跌停。

  本轮大消费行情演绎至今,几乎扩散至各个细分。而昨日加速的上涨后情绪端或趋于高潮,以目前市场整体的量能水平而言,存在着一定的买盘承接不足疑虑。分析人士预计,后续内部的分化可能会有所加剧。

  整体而言,在市场持续缩量环境下,板块轮动较快,资金更便宜防御板块和消息面催化方向,因此,大消费在昨日高潮遭遇调整仍在情理之中,分析人士建议,后续可关注资金对于消费方向的回流强度,一方面继续聚焦前排核心标的,另一方面关注在一众低位补涨个股中能够脱颖而出的个股。

  02. 增量资金加速涌入市场

  近期,受海外扰动,投资者情绪较为脆弱,资金观望意味浓厚,成交额再创年内地量,也令市场担忧交易额又会长期萎缩。

  事实上,当前A股市场面临的增量资金依然充足——今年以来,随着各项政策举措的逐步落地实施,包括保险资金、银行理财资金、各类养老金等在内的增量资金入市进程加快。

  首先,今年1月份,《关于推动中长期资金入市工作的实施方案》出台,主要举措包括要求公募基金持有A股流通市值未来三年每年至少增长10%;大型国有保险公司自2025年起每年新增保费的30%用于投资A股,对国有保险公司、社保基金、养老金等全面实施三年以上长周期考核,降低短期业绩权重。

  其次,国家金融监督管理总局近日发布《关于调整保险资金权益类资产监管比例有关事项的通知》,上调保险资金权益资产配置比例上限、提高投资创业投资基金的集中度比例、放宽税延养老比例监管要求。

  第三,4月份以来,稳股市“组合拳”协同发力,增量资金全面入市。央行、中央汇金、沪深两市公司及股东等多方行动,齐心协力为A股市场提供增量资金支持,用实际行动表达对中国资本市场的坚定信心。

  此外,社保基金、公募基金、私募基金、证券公司、银行理财等各方联手加仓,形成协同效应;龙头企业“大额+高频”回购,产生示范效应,如三一重工、海尔智家等单笔回购规模均超10亿元。截至目前,已有483家A股上市公司累计披露511单股票回购增持贷款计划,拟申请贷款金额上限合计1020.584亿元。

  展望未来,证券日报刊文评论称,随着相关政策措施效果陆续显现,预计会有更多增量资金进入A股市场。

  03. A股行情或迎“多点开花”

  对于A股后市,内外资机构近期也是联合看好。

  外资方面,对于近期市场担忧的关税风波,摩根大通分析师在最新发布的报告中表示,特朗普政府的新一轮关税政策对于中国互联网公司的影响并不直接,对于中国线上消费的影响更是微乎其微,预计可能不到0.5%。

  对于A股投资机会,高盛在最新的报告中表示,中资股估值吸引,叠加经济刺激政策预期,势有资金重投中国。考虑到A股气氛更受惠于政策刺激,策略配置上较H股看高一线。高盛预计,未来12个月内,MSCI中国指数有12%的上涨空间,沪深300指数有15%的上涨空间。

  内资方面,睿远基金傅鹏博认为,这次关税之“危”会转化为“机”,推动一系列改革,如提振内需,以国内消费市场带动经济增长。资本市场或迎来从“科技牛”的局部行情到多点开花的局面。

  睿远基金赵枫也认为,伴随着外部环境的变化和投资者预期的波动,二季度市场表现也许会比较颠簸,但结合当前的估值水平和较为宽裕的政策空间,我们认为中国权益资产的价格存在较为坚实的基本面支撑,对全年表现仍可保持乐观。

  具体配置上,高盛看好消费板块的表现,认为消费和地产领域的进一步改善将推动市场上涨。高盛还表示,小盘股可能表现更佳,特别是科创50、创业板指和中证1000等指数。

  4月18日金融一线消息,国家金融监督管理总局辽阳监管分局行政处罚信息公开表显示,国华人寿保险股份有限公司辽阳中心支公司因财务数据不真实,被责令改正并罚款11万元。车轶欧(时任国华人寿保险股份有限公司辽阳中心支公司总经理)受到警告并被罚款1万元。

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