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  来源:财联社

  最新的美国官方数据显示,特朗普政府对于贸易政策的认知,可能建立在极度严重的幻觉之上。

  近几周时间里,特朗普屡次在公开场合鼓吹他的关税政策能使“美国每天收入20亿美元”。然而美国海关和美国财政部的数据却显示,即便是在4月5日部分关税生效后,海关实际收到的关税大致也只有2-3亿美元左右,差距可谓是相当大。

  美国海关和边境保护局(CBP)在发给媒体的声明中表示,自4月5日起,海关根据新实施的“对等关税”政策,已经累计征收超过5亿美元。加上2025年1月20日以来实施的15项总统贸易行动,累计关税收入达到250亿美元。

  这份声明的缘由,是美国海关在上周五出现长达10小时的系统故障,导致美国进口商无法输入豁免代码,帮助在途货物免除更高额的关税。

  所以CBP在声明中特别强调,即便在短暂的故障期间,CBP日均2.5亿美元的收入流未受影响。

  作为对照,美国财政部周一发布的每日存款报表也显示,在“关税和特定消费税”项下,录得的金额一共只有3.05亿美元。

  作为一名将政治生涯与关税深度绑定的非典型政客,特朗普对“美国每天能收到多少关税”的认知错得如此离谱,美国媒体认为他可能只是单方面地听信了亲信的胡说八道。

  3月底时,特朗普的高级贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗接受采访时曾表示:“仅汽车关税一项就能增收约1000亿美元…此外,其他关税将每年带来6000亿美元的收入,十年间总计约6万亿美元。”

  6000亿除以365天,约合每天略超16亿美元。这个数字大致能与特朗普嘴里的“每天20亿美元”对上。

  按照特朗普政府展现出的算术能力,美国的经济学家们也大胆猜测:纳瓦罗的“6万亿”就是把2024年美国进口商品总额3.3万亿美元,四舍五入为3万亿,并假设对所有商品征收20%的全面关税。这样下来一年就是6000亿,十年就是6万亿。

  但不论是经济学,还是真实的贸易世界,都不是这么运作的。

  美国税务基金会的联邦税收政策副总裁埃里卡·约克解读称,纳瓦罗忽视了关税提高时人们消费行为的改变、各国的报复性措施以及由此对其他税收来源的影响。

  按照“贸易弹性”的基本经济学原理,加征关税也会导致进口量的减少,另外美国进口数据已经包含关税成本。最关键的是,关税是一种对美国企业和消费者加征的税(这是特朗普政府的另一个常见认知错误),会导致美国企业和工人收入下降,工作岗位减少,从而导致政府在其他方面的税收下降。

  对于特朗普的政治议程来说,纳瓦罗的计算错误,也会带来更深远的影响。

  作为明年中期选举前的关键立法,特朗普希望在年底前推动减税法案的延长,减税的规模正好是“十年5-10万亿美元”。纳瓦罗经常暗示,关税收入能够弥补税收减少。这意味着,特朗普政府的关键经济议程,恐怕都压在鲁莽的简单算术和不切实际的幻想上。

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