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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  大和发布研报称,青岛啤酒股份(00168)目标价由52.5港元升至70港元,相当预测市盈率18倍(此前予其估值14倍),评级由“持有”上调至“买入”,指其为该行啤酒行业的首选。该行指注意到3月份青啤的出厂销量同比增长可能加快至约10%,显著超越中国啤酒同业。该行预期青岛啤酒第一季营收增长4%,主要来自销量同比增长3%及平均售价同比增长1%。同时上调2025至2026年每股盈利预测5至11%,以反映2025年销量以及平均销售单价预测升幅更高。

  汇通财经APP讯——韩国央行行周四(4月17日)释放强烈降息信号,直指特朗普关税政策构成“重大风险”。在全球贸易战阴云下,韩国经济恐面临十年来最严峻挑战,金融市场震荡加剧。

  降息箭在弦上,央行罕见松口

  韩国央行周四虽维持基准利率2.75%不变,但行长李昌镛在发布会上重磅表态:“除我之外,六位政策委员均对5月降息持开放态度。”这一罕见措辞立即引发市场震动,教保证券分析师白允敏直言:“5月降息已成定局,年底利率或跌至2.25%。”

  三重暴击:野火、政变、贸易战

  央行警告一季度经济可能萎缩,创纪录野火与政治动荡已造成重创,但真正的“核弹”来自特朗普关税。李昌镛坦言:“美国关税强度与各国反应瞬息万变,我们连基本经济情景都难以设定。”数据显示,韩国央行自去年10月已连续降息三次,如今或将开启第四轮宽松。

  12万亿紧急救市,韩元剧烈波动

  消息公布后,韩元兑美元跌幅收窄至0.16%,报1416.1附近。政府正多线作战:一方面与美国谈判争取关税延期,另一方面紧急起草12万亿韩元(84亿美元)追加预算。企划财政部长崔相穆警告:“关税带来的经济下行风险远超预期。”

  总统大选前的经济豪赌

  在6月3日总统大选前,这场经济保卫战充满政治意味。前总统尹锡悦因戒严令遭弹劾的阴影未散,现政府试图通过降息+财政刺激的组合拳稳住局势。但分析师警告,若全年经济增速跌破1%,韩国或被迫祭出更激进举措。

  结语:

  当特朗普的关税大棒遇上韩国经济“内忧外患”,这场危机已不仅是货币政策的调整,更关乎整个东北亚经济格局的重塑。随着关税大限临近,韩国经济正步入关键考验期。

  北京时间13:23,美元兑韩元现报1418.02/30。

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