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APLAN顶开OMEGA的腔道,让我们一同揭开她们的秘密。
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  作者:费翎

  4月14日,卡游再次向港交所提交招股说明书,由摩根士丹利、中金公司和摩根大通担任联席保荐人,继续推动上市进程。

  与一年前首次递表相比,卡游所处境遇已大不相同。从外部环境来看,随着年轻群体成为消费主力军,为满足情感需求、社交属性和文化认同的悦己消费、兴趣消费概念逐渐被资本市场接受认可。泡泡玛特近一年内股价飙升逾400%,较最低点反弹10倍有余,被誉为年轻人的“塑料茅台”;布鲁可年初上市之际融资认购倍数高达4297倍,市值一度突破390亿港元,2025年预期市盈率保持在25倍左右。

  而香港作为全球金融中心之一,拥有成熟的国际投资者基础,估值体系对新经济企业更趋友好,尤其是具备高增长潜力的消费品牌。卡游选择此时赴港上市,既是借势资本加速扩张,也是向投资者展示其“内容驱动消费,消费反哺内容”融合模式的绝佳窗口。

  就内部动因而言,公司的行业地位和业绩表现再创新高。据灼识咨询研究显示,按2024年商品交易总额计算,卡游在泛娱乐产品行业、泛娱乐玩具行业及泛娱乐文具行业的市场份额分别为13.3%、21.5%、24.3%,三大赛道皆稳坐龙头;在泛娱乐玩具行业集换式卡牌领域的市占率达71.1%,而第二名仅为4.7%。

  2024年,卡游实现总营收100.57亿元,同比暴涨278%;若剔除金融负债公允价值变动及股权激励开支等非经常性项目,经调整净利润录得44.66亿元,较2023年激增378%。收入规模走高、盈利韧性凸显的背后,是卡游多元化战略的成功。

  IP多元化:授权+原创双轨并行构建泛娱乐生态护城河

  IP是卡游的业绩基石,其独特的“授权IP规模化变现”和“原创IP生态延伸”双轨模式,兼具短期确定性和长期想象力。

  据招股书披露,截至2024年12月31日,卡游共有70个IP矩阵,其中69个为授权IP,包括奥特曼、小马宝莉、蛋仔派对及哈利波特等。2022-2024年,前五大授权IP主题产品收入对公司总营收的贡献保持在85%以上,奥特曼曾是主产品集换式卡牌的支柱IP。

  为了保障业务稳定性,卡游与主要IP合作伙伴长期保持良好关系。奥特曼和小马宝莉等核心IP的授权协议已续签4次至2029年,叶罗丽自2019年合作以来续签了2次延续至2033年。报告期内,于2028年或其后到期的授权IP主题产品收入约占总营收八成,1年内到期的IP收入仅约占10%。

  与此同时,卡游也在不断寻找极具生命力的新授权IP,有意识地降低对单一IP的依赖风险。2025年春节《哪吒之魔童闹海》爆火,以超156亿元票房跻身全球影史前5名,卡游迅速推出联名的哪吒之魔童闹海斗天包收藏卡,第一批投放的450万包一周内售罄,被央视称为“现象级文化消费事件”。而2023年,公司以奥特曼IP为主题的新产品系列数量占新产品系列总数比例已经降至32.3%,同比减少12.1个百分点。

  此外,卡游在原创IP孵化方面的实力储备不容小觑。公司拥有11个专注产品设计及开发的工作室,由471名专业从事原画、平面设计及3D设计等领域的优秀人才组成,还成立了一个由100多名全职雇员组成的支持团队,可通过对消费者的偏好洞察,灵活部署支持工作室,及时推出受市场欢迎的产品。2023年推出的首款卡游三国原创IP产品,累计交易额达2.94亿元,被评选为2024年度数字文化十大IP之一。

  卡游凭借授权IP和原创IP“组合拳”构筑起的内容壁垒,为后续的衍生品开发、场景化运营打下坚实基础,有助于形成“内容-产品-用户”的正向循环,从而构建起覆盖全年龄段、多场景的泛娱乐生态体系。

  产品多元化:集换式卡牌为核多品类协同纵深布局

  所谓集换式卡牌游戏,是指以收集特定主题的实体卡为基础,通过策略构筑组合、与他人互动的游戏形式。据招股书介绍,卡游为卡牌产品设计了不同的稀有类别、角色和背景,并设计英雄对决回合制玩法,盲盒随机销售形式带来了极高的复购率,而对战游戏设计赋予了社交货币属性。

  2022-2024年,卡游的集换式卡牌产品销量占总销量比例稳定在90%以上,销售收入从39.30亿元大幅增长至82.00亿元,年复合增长率达27.8%,占总营收比例超80%。而其生产所用的直接材料和IP授权费用合计只分别占收入25.5%、19.7%、24.3%,推动细分业务毛利率由69.9%提升至71.3%,是公司当之无愧的高毛利“现金牛”。

  在集换式卡牌领域占据近乎垄断性优势后,卡游以此为流量入口,顺利向IP周边衍生品与场景化消费延伸,借助多品类协同实现用户价值深挖。

  一方面,卡游抓住了国内“谷子经济”(源自英文单词Goods,即二次元周边商品)快速崛起的红利期。由动漫、游戏等IP为原型制作的徽章、立牌、贴纸等周边商品单价低、消费频次高,能满足年轻消费者收藏、社交和情感需求。公开数据显示,2024年该市场规模直逼1700亿元,较2023年增长40.6%,预计2029年将超过3000亿元。而报告期内,卡游的其他玩具销量从4290万件涨至1.48亿件,收入则从1.80亿元飙升至10.23亿元,约占当期总营收10.2%。

  另一方面,卡游大胆尝试跨界融合,将经典IP元素融入笔具、笔记本等文具产品和人偶等细分玩具品类,进一步覆盖学生群体的学习场景和成年人群体的娱乐场景。2022-2024年,公司共推出31款人偶和128个文具系列,总销量接近3亿件;两项细分业务合计收入分别为2090万元、3.77亿元、8.34亿元,年复合增长率高达241.7%。

  从单一产品到多品类爆发,卡游的底气源于强大的柔性供应链和精准的分层运营能力。

  招股书显示,截至最后实际可行日期,公司在浙江和广东共有三个在营生产基地、一个准备投产的生产基地和一个在建的生产基地,产品从设计到量产最短只需20-30天,同一IP可复用于卡牌、文具、人偶等多品类,包装生产线既可以生产集换式卡牌也可以生产文具,有效实现边际成本递减。

  而在用户运营方面,卡游展现出了超常的敏锐度。近年来小马宝莉IP在社交媒体平台走红,公司基于大数据精准地把握住了受众群体年龄层的迁移,通过联名活动、社媒种草等手段精准触达目标客群。据卡游相关人士透露,2024年热销的小马宝莉收藏卡牌,年轻女性消费群体约占48%,一定程度上验证了其在细分市场的运营能力。

  以IP多元化为内容引擎、以产品多元化为增长杠杆,卡游形成了“卡牌吸金+衍生品扩圈”的商业模式。登陆港交所或将是崭新的起点,卡游有望在原创IP孵化、跨界场景融合及全球化布局上持续突破,成为泛娱乐生态中具有标杆意义的“内容+消费”双轮驱动样本。

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