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  德国国债领跌欧债,收益率曲线熊平,有迹象显示美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在贸易和美联储独立性方面的强硬立场有所缓和,推动交易员削减欧洲央行货币政策放松押注。这推动股市走高,提振了美国国债,美债近期表现弱于德债的情形得到缓和。英国长期国债逆势上涨,此前英国削减了此类国债的发行计划。

  交易员预计欧洲央行2025年将进一步降息约62个基点,而周二为70个基点左右。

  德国央行行长JoachimNagel表示,由于美国关税的影响,德国今年面临经济衰退的危险;其在欧洲央行的同事FrancoisVilleroydeGalhau表示,美国总统唐纳德·特朗普依据有缺陷的经济论据让全世界在贸易问题上陷入了一场“双输游戏”。

  英国长期国债上涨,表现异于较短期限英债及其他欧洲市场,此前英国债务管理办公室进一步削减长债发行计划。

  英国2S30曲线走平,单日趋平幅度迈向2023年10月以来最大。

  早些时候,英国央行首席经济学家HuwPill重申对过往危机期间量化宽松使用方式的疑虑;英国央行的AndrewBailey和SarahBreeden晚些时候发表讲话。

  市场

  德国10年期国债收益率涨6个基点,至2.51%;

  德债期货跌67.00点,至131.28%;

  意大利10年期国债收益率涨2个基点,至3.63%;

  意大利与德国10年期国债利差收窄4个基点,至112个基点;

  法国10年期国债收益率涨3个基点,至3.24%;

  10年期英国国债收益率基本持平,报4.55%。

  美国商务部表示其周二启动了一项调查,以确定进口中型卡车、重型卡车以及中型和重型卡车零部件及其衍生产品对国家安全的影响。

  德国央行行长JoachimNagel称,由于美国关税的影响,该国经济今年面临衰退的危险。

  德国央行行长发警告称德国因关税而面临经济衰退风险

  Nagel周三表示,欧洲正处于停滞状态。“也许对我的国家、对德国来说经济会衰退”。

  欧洲央行行长拉加德:比起推高通胀特朗普关税更可能降低欧洲的通胀

  欧洲央行行长拉加德表示,比起引发通胀,美国的关税对欧洲而言更可能遏制通胀,不过还需要更多时间来全面评估形势。

  欧洲央行管委Muller:利率可能不得不降至中性以下

  欧洲央行管委会成员MadisMuller表示,如果贸易不确定性对经济增长的伤害比预期更严重,该行可能需要将利率下调至具有刺激性的水平。

  欧洲央行管委Villeroy:欧元区没有通胀风险可能进一步降息

  欧洲央行管委会成员FrancoisVilleroydeGalhau表示,鉴于目前不存在通胀风险,欧洲央行今年可能会进一步降息。

  “大锤”还是“手术刀”英国央行首席经济学家讨论QE在应对危机时的角色

  英国央行首席经济学家HuwPill对过去危机中将量化宽松政策作为“大锤”使用的做法提出质疑,此前其一位同事建议央行未来应采取更具针对性和审慎的政策。

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