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  ■ 刘 萌

  最近一段时间,多个跨国企业加大对华投资,“投资中国”成为越来越多外企的新计划。与此同时,商务部最新公布的数据显示,2025年1月份至3月份,全国新设立外商投资企业12603家,同比增长4.3%;实际使用外资金额2692.3亿元人民币,同比下降10.8%。其中,3月份当月实际使用外资同比增长13.2%。

  3月份实际使用外资为何实现同比跃升,笔者认为,这主要由以下几方面因素促成。

  首先,一系列政策主动发力,稳固外资存量、促进外资增量,增强外资在华投资信心。

  当前,国际投资环境更趋复杂,中国引资挑战与机遇并存。从2月份商务部、国家发展改革委印发《2025年稳外资行动方案》,到3月份《政府工作报告》对“大力鼓励外商投资”作出一系列具体部署,我国引资稳资力度明显加大。

  其次,以人工智能为代表的中国科技火爆出圈,既彰显了中国科技创新的实力,也让更多外资企业看好“投资中国”的前景。

  国家统计局数据显示,3月份,规模以上高技术制造业增加值同比增长10.7%,增速较前两个月进一步提升。

  从实际使用外资数据来看,外资企业在高技术产业相关领域加快布局,进一步融入中国市场。1月份至3月份,高技术产业实际使用外资786.1亿元人民币,其中,生物药品制造业、航空航天器及设备制造业、医疗仪器设备及器械制造业实际使用外资分别增长63.8%、42.5%和12.4%。外资企业正以“真金白银”深度融入中国产业链和创新链。

  最后,我国持续推进高水平对外开放,外资来源地进一步多元化,有效应对了地缘政治风险等外部冲击带来的挑战。

  从外资来源地看,1月份至3月份,东盟地区实际对华投资增长56.2%,欧盟地区实际对华投资增长11.7%,瑞士、英国、日本、韩国实际对华投资分别增长76.8%、60.5%、29.1%和12.9%(含通过自由港投资数据)。

  今年的《政府工作报告》明确,扩大高水平对外开放,积极稳外贸稳外资。无论外部环境如何变化,始终坚持对外开放不动摇,稳步扩大制度型开放,有序扩大自主开放和单边开放,以开放促改革促发展。

  近年来,我国不断缩减外资准入负面清单,已实现制造业领域外资准入限制措施“清零”。日前,服务业扩大开放又迎来新的支持政策,4月18日,商务部印发《加快推进服务业扩大开放综合试点工作方案》和新一轮服务业扩大开放综合试点任务清单,进一步发挥试点地区先行先试作用,推动服务业开放提速加力。

  随着一系列政策措施落地见效,“投资中国”前景一片大好,中国将不断巩固全球投资热土的地位。

  来源:中国经济网

  原标题:暴涨!暴涨!本轮逻辑有何不同?

  近期,国际金价狂飙,接连突破3300美元/盎司、3350美元/盎司的重要关口,不断刷新历史纪录。高盛、摩根大通、瑞银等多家机构上调黄金价格的预期。

  截至4月18日,今年以来,以人民币计价的现货黄金价格累计涨幅达到26.78%,接近去年全年涨幅;COMEX黄金期货价格年内累计上涨26.52%。

  在零售端,今日周大福(01929.HK)、潮宏基(002345.SZ)、六福珠宝、周六福、周大生(002867.SZ)的首饰金价均为1028元/克,周生生(00116.HK)、老庙黄金的首饰金价为1022元/克,老凤祥(600612.SH)的首饰金价为1023元/克。

  那么,本轮金价快速上涨的核心驱动因素是什么?与此前相比,当前金价的上涨逻辑有何异同?未来金价还会快速上涨吗?

  本轮金价上涨的逻辑有何不同?

  国际金价的大幅波动与美国关税政策的“不确定性”密切相关。专家认为,美国关税政策公布后,对美股、美债、原油期货等均造成重创,流动性趋紧下部分机构投资者选择高位减持黄金资产,引发国际金价短期波动加大和阶段性下滑。

  中信建投期货贵金属分析师王彦青指出,超预期的关税政策公布后,市场各类资产进入了普跌状态,市场流动性骤然紧张,黄金也受到波及,出现一定幅度的回调。在市场流动性稳定之后,金价就重回避险逻辑,再度回升。

  王彦青认为,驱动金价上涨的核心逻辑在于,美国关税政策正阻碍全球分工的供应链体系,同时破坏了以美元为中心的货币体系。当人们使用美元会承担更多成本时,市场对美元的信任度及需求就会降低。考虑到黄金仍然是各国央行外汇储备的重要组成部分,且无货币信用受损的担忧,在“去美元化”的趋势下,黄金需求将大大增加,为黄金价格带来持续支撑。

  未来黄金价格会继续上涨吗?

  展望未来,受访人士普遍认为,在当前地缘经济紧张和贸易摩擦加剧的背景下,黄金中长期看涨逻辑依然存在,国际金价仍有进一步走高的可能。

  东方金诚研报显示,从中长期来看,全球贸易环境变化、宏观经济不确定性增加以及全球地缘局势持续动荡引发的避险需求、全球央行配置黄金意愿仍较强、美国仍处于降息周期等多重因素仍将支撑黄金价格重回上涨态势。

  “‘对等关税’给国际资本市场带来了极大的不确定性,叠加地缘政治风险居高不下等因素,市场避险需求仍在持续攀升。”中国银行研究院研究员吴丹说,“作为传统避险资产,黄金的长期配置价值依然稳固,看涨头寸仍在高位,且主流资金未实质性减弱对黄金的战略配置。”

  吴丹建议,投资者短期需重点关注美联储货币政策动向和贸易摩擦走势,在多元化资产组合中合理配置黄金份额,同时理性评估好自身风险承受能力和资金流动性状况,避免出现过度投机性资产配置。

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