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美联储理事沃勒(ChristopherWaller)周一在美国圣路易斯的一场活动上表示,特朗普的贸易政策对美国经济造成的通胀影响可能都是暂时性的。他说,如果关税对通胀的影响较小,美联储在2025年下半年“非常有可能”考虑降息。

媒体报道,沃勒在讲话中称,新的关税政策是“数十年来对美国经济影响最大的一次冲击之一”。

“该政策的未来走向,以及其可能产生的影响,仍高度不确定。这使得经济前景同样极具不确定性,要求政策制定者在考虑各种可能结果时保持灵活。”

据新华社报道,连日来,美国政府肆意滥用关税手段,对包括中国在内的全球贸易伙伴征收额外所谓“对等关税”,遭到美国国内及国际社会强烈不满,引发金融市场大幅动荡,后暂缓对部分贸易伙伴征收高额“对等关税”,但仍对这些国家和地区保持10%的“基准关税”和对中国125%的高关税。

沃勒列出了高低两种关税政策可能的发展情景,并阐述了美联储在这两种情景下应如何调整政策。

高关税场景

在第一种“高关税”情景中,沃勒假设平均关税约为25%,并在较长时间内保持不变。他表示,在这种情况下,经济增长可能会“几乎停滞”,失业率将显著上升。

他还指出,通胀在这种情况下也会大幅上升,如果企业迅速且完全将关税成本转嫁出去,未来几个月的年化通胀峰值可能接近5%。

不过,沃勒认为,只要美国人对未来价格增长的预期保持稳定,到2026年通胀将会回落至更温和的水平。

他表示:“尽管自2021年开始的上一轮通胀持续时间,超出了我和美联储政策制定者最初的预期,但我目前的最佳判断是,由关税引发的较高通胀将是暂时的。如果这种通胀是暂时的,我可以忽略它,基于潜在趋势来决定政策。”

“如果经济放缓非常严重,甚至威胁到出现衰退,那么我预计将更早且更大幅度地支持降低联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的政策利率。”

低关税场景

在第二种“低关税”情景中,沃勒假设美国对所有国家的商品都维持10%的统一基础关税,且其他关税将随着时间推移而逐步取消。

沃勒表示,在这种情况下,对通胀的影响会小得多,年化通胀峰值大约在3%左右。虽然这仍会对经济产出和就业增长产生负面影响,但影响程度会远低于第一种情景。

沃勒说:“由于这种逐步减少的关税对通胀和经济活动的影响有限,我将支持有限的货币政策应对措施。随着经济放缓,如果通胀预期保持稳定甚至下降,结合对较小关税效应为暂时性的判断,这将为FOMC在价格数据反映出潜在通胀趋势的进展时,调整政策提供空间。”

沃勒最后表示,如果关税对通胀的影响较小,美联储在2025年下半年“非常有可能”考虑降息。

(文章源于《华尔街见闻》)

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