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  汇通财经APP讯——Mizuho金融集团全球市场联合主管越水健也(KenyaKoshimizu)表示,去年日本央行缩减国债购买的速度过于温和,主要是担心加息与缩债叠加会导致债券收益率剧烈波动。

  如今加息暂停的可能性增强,“日本央行有更多空间调整节奏,缩债步伐无需再如此保守。”

  他还强调:“我们应专注于恢复日本债市的正常功能,特别是在全球市场因美国政策转向而大幅动荡的背景下。”

  日本央行债市主导地位正在松动,私营银行作用增强

  当前,日本央行持有日本国债总量约为一半,导致市场流动性及价格发现功能受限。市场参与者预计,日本央行将于6月对现有缩债计划进行回顾评估,而Mizuho等主要私营机构的声音将成为该评估的重要依据。

  根据现行计划,日本央行每季度减少4000亿日元的债券购买额度,目标是在2026年3月前将每月购债规模缩减至3万亿日元。

  全球不确定性放缓日本加息路径,助力灵活政策操作

  Koshimizu指出,“由于美国总统特朗普提出的关税政策扰动市场,加之对全球经济衰退的担忧,日本央行是否能够继续加息尚不明朗。”他认为,这种不确定性正好为日本央行提供了更多的操作空间,可以根据市场反应灵活调整政策节奏。

  一位市场分析师表示:“全球央行正进入新的政策周期,日本央行要实现软着陆,必须借此机会重新平衡其在债市的角色。”

  私营银行购债意愿依赖市场环境,或转向美债配置

  对于Mizuho自身是否会全面回归日本国债市场,Koshimizu并未正面表态,仅表示“取决于具体环境”。不过他指出,在当前不确定性环境下,高度流动性的产品吸引力提升,未来可能增持美国国债。

  此外,他对日本长期前景持乐观态度,认为“随着日本经济摆脱通缩,企业正逐步从成本削减转向增长战略。”

  Koshimizu总结道:“恢复市场价格发现机制才是长远之计,特别是在货币政策转型期,我们不能再依赖央行主导市场。”

  编辑观点:

  日本央行当前政策正处于战略转型关键期,一方面要应对美国政策变化引发的全球市场不稳,另一方面又需逐步退出超宽松模式。Mizuho的表态不仅反映出市场对央行恢复“中立者”角色的期待,也突显出债市参与者对市场机制修复的迫切。

  未来若缩债节奏适当加快,且收益率保持稳定,有望吸引更多私营机构重返国债市场,从而缓解央行主导结构对市场功能的长期压制。

  上周指数多数上涨,上证指数及上证50表现相对较好,主因国家队护盘。中证500及创业板指表现较弱。市场活跃度一般,成交量逐日萎缩,上周五降至不足9500亿元,为去年9.24以来最低额。六大风格看,大盘价值上涨2.6%,而中小盘成长则下跌1%左右,价值显著占优。银行、煤炭、石化这些大市值权重占比较高的行业领涨,军工、农业、计算机、社服等下跌。外盘方面,欧股反弹,美股下跌;美元指数低位震荡,黄金连续新高。

  统计局发布了1季度GDP数据和3月份经济数据,均明显强于市场预期,其中,消费延续回升、地产销售跌幅收窄,关税冲击尚未显现,超预期的经济数据短暂地抑制了投资者的政策预期。不过现实情况看,经济边际下行的压力较大,未来政策着力点在保民生、稳就业、提内需等发力。上周末国常会明确指出,加大逆周期调节力度,着力稳就业稳外贸,着力促消费扩内需;要促进养老、生育、文化、旅游等服务消费,扩大有效投资,大力提振民间投资积极性;要持续稳定股市,持续推动房地产市场平稳健康发展。相关举措一旦推出,要直达企业和群众,提高落地效率,确保实施效果。当前影响宏观基本面的重要因素是关税能否缓和及国内政策对冲力度,这也是影响市场短期演绎逻辑的核心变量。在这个背景下,大方向预计依然是内需相关及自主可控方向。但当关税出现转机迹象时,市场主线预计会很快发生切换,当前看,出现一定积极信号,特朗普当地时间17日表示,对中美达成协议有信心,这有利于投资者风险偏好的提升,但基本面角度还需等待更为确信的事件。结构上看,部分科技领域与宏观基本面本身关系就较小,且为长期主线,短期依赖于风险偏好的变化,当风险偏好不再下降甚至阶段性提升的环境下,是值得配置方向。

  来源:仁怀政府网

  4月18日,全市招商营商工作推进大会召开,深入学习贯彻习近平总书记关于民营经济发展的重要论述和习近平总书记在贵州考察时的重要讲话精神,认真贯彻落实全省抓产业抓项目抓招商推进会、遵义市招商营商工作推进大会精神,齐心协力抓招商、争分夺秒引项目、久久为功优环境,奋力推动产业招商大提升、营商环境大改善。

  市委书记常文松出席会议并讲话,市人大常委会主任杨英,市政协主席刘进,市委常委,市政府领导班子成员,市人民法院院长,市人民检察院检察长,仁怀经开区、遵义市生态环境局仁怀分局副县级以上领导参加会议。市委常委、市政府常务副市长罗小松主持会议。

  常文松指出,招商营商是经济工作的“生命线”,全市上下要把招商营商作为当务之急,以招商营商新成效,为高质量发展注入更多“源头活水”。要突出做强优势产业抓招商突破,大力实施白酒企业技改扩能和兼并重组,围绕融入茅台供应链、产业链、价值链,推动优质资源向主导产业集聚。要围绕增强发展动能抓招商突破,加快构建现代化产业体系,着力提升农业综合竞争力和产品附加值,积极创建茅台古镇国家5A级旅游景区,加快建设世界知名的休闲度假旅游城市,深化与新蒲新区共建“遵义大数据科创园”。要聚焦招大引强抓招商突破,围绕市场发展动向、重点招商方向等绘制招商图谱,善于“借船出海”“借梯登高”,继续做好平台招商文章,发挥企业在招商引资中的主体作用,推动招商引资提质、提速、提效。

  常文松强调,要突出效能提升,全力以赴优化营商环境。聚焦“引得来”,着力打造开放包容、充满活力的投资环境;聚焦“留得住”,着力打造公平透明、高效便捷的政务环境;聚焦“发展好”,着力打造尊商安商、亲商富商的发展环境。要突出要素赋能,全力以赴强化服务保障。强化要素保障,确保项目有人跟进、企业有人服务、问题有人解决;强化资金保障,满足企业灵活用款需求,降低民营企业融资成本;强化群工保障,确保招引一个、落地一个、建设一个。要突出作风转变,全力以赴抓好工作落实。全市上下要树牢“一盘棋”思维,把招商营商作为“责任田”“分内事”,从严从实传导责任、从严从实强化督导、从严从实转变作风,奋力推动产业招商大提升、营商环境大改善,为谱写中国式现代化仁怀篇章提供坚实支撑。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  来源:财联社

  财联社4月21日电,市场全天低开后震荡反弹,创业板指领涨,沪指录得7连阳。沪深两市全天成交额1.04万亿,较上个交易日放量1267亿。盘面上,市场热点快速轮动,个股涨多跌少,全市场超4300只个股上涨。从板块来看,黄金股集体大涨,四川黄金等10余股涨停。大消费股再度活跃,电商、影视等方向领涨,国芳集团等多股涨停。机器人概念股展开反弹,京城股份涨停。板块方面,黄金、电商、机器人、影视等板块涨幅居前,银行、白酒、港口等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘,沪指涨0.45%,深成指涨1.27%,创业板指涨1.59%。

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