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  据Hartnett领导的团队称,美元正处于长期贬值过程中,而投资者撤离美国资产的趋势还将进一步延续。这种趋势将持续,直到美联储开始降息、美国达成贸易协议以及消费者支出保持韧性。

  策略师们在一份报告中写道:“当前的‘痛苦交易’无疑是由‘七巨头’引领的、幅度有限的美国股票市场和美元的上行挤压行情。”他们表示,决定性地突破当前的关键支撑位和阻力位(据估算,标准普尔500指数的关键位在5690点,接近50周移动平均线)将取决于上述条件是否得到满足。

  美国资产在2024年达到极高估值后,今年以来表现不佳,因为投资者在激进的贸易政策出台后削减了对美国资产的持仓。关税正威胁着全球经济增长,且可能会加剧美国的通货膨胀,促使资产配置者分散投资。

  标准普尔500指数从2月的峰值一度暴跌了19%,之后逢低买入者入场,收复了近一半的跌幅。彭博美元指数今年已下跌6.3%。

  Hartnett认为,美元贬值是“最明确的投资主题”。他认为,“深度搜索”(DeepSeek)是美国例外主义的巅峰,特朗普的政策是欧洲财政过度的导火索,而他宣布的关税政策则是全球化衰退的开端。

  Hartnett表示:“美元走弱的过程要么伴随着收益率下降缓慢展开,要么伴随着收益率上升迅速到来。金价飙升已经强烈地预示了这一点。”

  他补充称,美元走弱的主题有利于增加全球资产对大宗商品、新兴市场和国际股票的配置,比如中国的科技股以及欧洲和日本的银行股。

  4月25日金融一线消息,4月24日晚,上海银行发布2025年第一季度报告,报告显示,上海银行一季度实现营业收入135.97亿元,同比增长3.85%;归母净利润62.92亿元,同比增长2.3%。截至2025年3月末,上海银行不良贷款余额167.74亿元,较上年末上升1.94亿元,不良贷款率1.18%,与上年末持平;拨备覆盖率271.24%,较上年末上升1.43个百分点;贷款拨备比3.2%,较上年末上升0.02个百分点。

财联社4月25日讯(编辑刘晨实习生管育若)曾深陷恒大泥沼的盛京银行(2066.HK),一直努力在“去恒大化”,如今元气恢复如何?从其近日发布的2024年报可窥一斑。

截至2024年末,盛京银行总资产规模达到1.12万亿元,同比增长4%;发放贷款总额人民币5006亿元,同比增长4.8%;吸收存款总额人民币7806亿元,同比增长2.6%。资产规模显示有所扩张。

从收入看,其2024年实现营业收入85.8亿元,较上年减14.6%,首次跌破百亿元大关;归母净利润下滑15.21%至6.2亿元。其净息差从上年末的0.96%降到了0.80%,为历年来最低水平。与上年相比,盛京银行盈利不佳,但已经有所改善,一定程度显示出“去恒大化”的效果。

财联社据Wind数据统计,截至目前,盛京银行共有存续债券37只,规模226.50亿元,其中,同业存单116.5亿元。

利息净收入下降拆解

受宏观环境和市场因素影响,盛京银行去年的净息差进一步收窄,利息净收入下行。

年报显示,2024年盛京银行实现发放贷款和垫款利息收入247.42亿元,同比减少18.3%,占利息收入的比重为75.85%。去年其利息净收入为68.9亿元,同比下降22.33%。

利息净收入的下降,也导致净息差逐年收缩。截至2024年末,盛京银行净息差已经低至0.80%,跌下1%的关口,较2023年下降0.16个百分点。

据金融监管总局数据,2024年第四季度,商业银行净息差为1.52%,盛京银行较行业值低0.72个百分点。

根据“市场利率定价自律机制”发布的《合格审慎评估实施办法(2023年修订版)》的规定,商业银行净息差的最低标准是0.8%,这意味着盛京银行净息差已跌到最低标准。

从利差来看,2024年末,盛京银行的生息资产收益率3.81%,较2023年下降0.34个百分点。

“买债”大创收,投资净收益40.47亿,同比增幅166%

管理层在年报中解释收入下降原因称,主要是贷款市场报价利率(LPR)持续下调,市场利率下行,银行业净息差收窄。本行平衡风险和收益,进一步优化资产投向和业务结构,利息净收入同比减少;本行积极把握金融市场投资交易机会,债券投资收益增加,非利息净收入较上年实现有效增长。

年报显示,2024年,盛京银行实现投资净收益40.47亿元,同比增加25.27亿元,增幅166.2%,主要是报告期内处置债券资产净收益增加所致。

上述业绩表现,显示出盛京银行经过2023年一系列涉及恒大的处置和人事变动后,2024年可谓开启了新的一年,相比上年已有改善,但仍有待持续发力。

2023年11月,曾在中国银行任职的孙进正式出任盛京银行董事长。2024年初,盛京银行的董监高迎来大规模调整。恒大风波之后,新一代管理层仍面临不小的挑战。

  零担货运公司赛亚表示,由于客户因贸易不确定性而减少需求,公司未能像往常一样在3月份迎来需求增长。

  总部位于佐治亚州约翰斯・克里克的赛亚公司(纳斯达克股票代码:SAIA)在周五开盘前公布了第一季度每股收益为1.86美元。这一结果远低于市场普遍预期的2.76美元,也低于该公司去年同期公布的3.38美元。

  此外,在财报公布前的90天里,由于分析师因日益加剧的贸易担忧而降低了预期,普遍预期的每股收益数值下降了31美分。

  赛亚公司的收入同比增长4.3%,达到7.88亿美元(按每天计算增长6%),每日货运量增长了12.8%,但每百磅的收入(即收益率)下降了5.8%(不包括燃油附加费则下降5.1%)。

  货运量的增长主要得益于近期新开设的货运站。收益率指标下降是由于每批货物的重量增加了7.8%。如果剔除货物重量的变化,净收益率则为正值。

  公司总裁兼首席执行官弗里茨・霍尔茨格雷夫在一份新闻稿中表示:“主要由于宏观经济环境的不确定性,本季度我们没有看到货运量通常会出现的连续增长情况。3月份的货运量与2月份持平,这导致我们第一季度的收入远低于预期。”

  公司运营比率(运营利润率的倒数)为91.1%,同比恶化了670个基点,且明显差于管理层此前的预期,此前预期的运营比率接近87.5%。新货运站的成本以及1月份异常恶劣的天气是部分影响因素。

  每批货物的成本同比上涨9.4%,而每批货物的收入仅增长1.5%,形成了近800个基点的负差。薪资、工资和福利费用(占收入的百分比)同比上升了410个基点,折旧费用同比上升了100个基点。

  从去年同期的净利息收入转为净利息支出,这一变化金额为450万美元,导致本季度每股收益减少了13美分。为了为收购货运站提供资金,净债务同比增加了2.07亿美元。

  周五早盘交易中,赛亚公司的股价下跌了23.8%。

  赛亚公司将于美国东部时间周五上午10点召开电话会议,讨论第一季度业绩。

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