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△哈佛大学校园

  当地时间4月18日,特朗普政府表示,已要求哈佛大学提供过去十年来的外国资金及部分外国关系的记录。

  美国教育部致函哈佛大学校长,表示哈佛大学在2014年至2019年期间披露的信息“不完整且不准确”。有分析称,这是美国政府针对哈佛大学的最新升级行动。(央视记者徐德智)

  新闻多看点

  近日,美国联邦政府以冻结联邦经费为要挟,要求多所高校“整改”,美国著名私立学府哈佛大学则选择“硬刚”。

  美国哈佛大学14日拒绝了特朗普政府提出的对其管理结构、招聘及招生政策进行大幅改革的要求。美国政府随即宣布冻结该校总额约22.6亿美元的联邦经费。15日,特朗普再发出威胁,要取消哈佛大学的免税资格,并要求该校道歉。

  美国国务卿卢比奥周五表示,除非未来数日内出现进展迹象,否则美国总统唐纳德·特朗普将停止斡旋俄乌冲突。此番言论发表于美乌领导人在巴黎举行首次实质性高级别面对面会谈之后,欧洲多国代表亦参与其中。

  “我们不会无休止地耗费数周乃至数月推进此事。因此需要立即——我指的是未来几天内——判断能否在未来几周达成目标。若可行则继续,否则我们将转向其他优先事项。”卢比奥强调。

  此番强硬表态与周四巴黎会谈的乐观氛围形成反差。卢比奥此前称其提出的美国和平框架获积极回应,乌克兰总统泽连斯基办公室亦评价会谈“具建设性且成果积极”。

  原标题:鲍威尔,突爆大消息!

  特朗普和鲍威尔的矛盾进一步加剧。

  当地时间4月18日,白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特证实,美国总统特朗普及其团队正在研究能否解雇美联储主席鲍威尔。

  另据媒体爆料,特朗普有意让前美联储理事凯文·沃什接任美联储主席一职。早在2017年,特朗普任命鲍威尔之前就曾考虑过提名沃什。但他的背景颇具争议,作为雅诗兰黛继承人的女婿,沃什几乎没有正统经济学背景,并且在金融危机时期多次错判市场和经济。

  美联储作为全球最具影响力的央行,其信誉很大程度上依赖于其行动的独立性,免受政治干预。华尔街警告称,如果特朗普试图罢免鲍威尔,可能会进一步加剧市场动荡。高盛的分析师表示,一旦美联储失去独立性,市场将面临极端波动。

  白宫证实

  当地时间4月18日,在被问及“解雇美联储主席鲍威尔是否现在变得更可能”时,凯文·哈塞特回答称:“总统特朗普和他的团队正在继续研究这个问题。”

  哈塞特表示,他关注的是美联储的政策行为,而不是个人问题。他批评美联储在特朗普第一任期内加息、并将减税定性为通胀推动因素的决定,但却未对前总统拜登的“失控支出”提出质疑。他称这些支出是“教科书式的通胀因素”。

  “所以如果你认为,特朗普对美联储过去的政策感到不满是不可接受的,那我认为你需要做一些解释了。”哈塞特说。

  哈塞特称,特朗普的政策正在推动资本投资和就业增长,而通胀正在下降。

  “所以,在这样的背景下,那些在失控支出问题上保持沉默的人,现在却跳出来说‘因为关税,这会导致通胀灾难’,那这些人真的需要改进一下他们的模型和论述方式。”他说。

  作为资深共和党人,鲍威尔由特朗普在其第一任期提名任命,并在前总统拜登执政时获得了连任。

  早在第一任期,特朗普就频繁公开批评美联储及鲍威尔,并经常敦促美联储降息。开启第二任期后,特朗普继续施压鲍威尔降息。然而,面对来自特朗普的压力,鲍威尔始终坚持美联储的独立性,不愿屈服于总统的意愿。

  本周,特朗普和鲍威尔的矛盾进一步加剧。特朗普周四连续三次公开喊话,抨击美联储货币政策完全混乱,并声称鲍威尔早该被解雇。

  据央视新闻消息,当地时间周五,特朗普在白宫发表讲话,重申鲍威尔应该降低利率。

  鲍威尔的美联储主席任期将于明年5月结束,而他作为美联储理事会成员的任期将持续至2028年1月。

  关于总统是否有权解雇美联储主席,还没有先例可循。特朗普本人倒是自信满满,他此前表示,他相信自己拥有解职鲍威尔的权力。他说:“如果我想让他下台,他马上就会走人,相信我。”

  鲍威尔此前则多次表示,总统无权解雇他。而且早在六年前,他就曾明确表态,若其职务受到挑战,他将通过法律手段进行抗争。

  而美联储高层也曾对这一情况提前做好了准备,即一旦鲍威尔美联储主席的地位受到挑战,美联储负责设定利率的独立机构——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC),将立刻召开会议,重新选举鲍威尔为委员会主席。

  影响多大?

  据媒体爆料,特朗普数月来一直在私下讨论解雇鲍威尔的可能性,并有意让前美联储理事凯文·沃什(KevinWarsh)接替。然而,沃什劝阻特朗普不要解雇鲍威尔,主张应当允许他完成任期,避免干预美联储的独立性。

  美联储作为全球最具影响力的央行,其信誉很大程度上依赖于其行动的独立性,免受政治干预。如果特朗普试图罢免鲍威尔,可能会进一步加剧市场动荡。

  据媒体报道,美国财政部长贝森特已多次警告白宫官员,任何试图解雇鲍威尔的行为都可能使金融市场不稳定。

  与此同时,马萨诸塞州民主党参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦(ElizabethWarren)也在接受采访时警告,解雇美联储主席可能导致美国市场崩溃。

  虽然沃伦常常公开批评鲍威尔,但她承认解雇美联储主席将带来非常大的风险:“虽然我经常与鲍威尔就法规和利率问题发生冲突,但请理解这一点,如果美国总统可以解雇鲍威尔主席,它将使美国市场崩溃。”

  她指出,支撑股市乃至全球经济的“基础设施”是“大机构(美联储)独立于政治的想法”。

  高盛的分析师警告称,一旦美联储失去独立性,市场将面临极端波动。

  在高盛的极端情景预测中,一个“听话的美联储”将屈服于政治压力,不顾通胀风险而大幅降息,这将导致美元贬值、实际利率下降,进而推动金价飙升。

  当美联储的决策不再基于经济数据而是基于白宫的政治需求时,黄金将被作为避险资产疯抢。高盛指出,历史上每当中央银行失去独立性时,都会导致法定货币信心危机,金价因此大幅上涨。

  加州大学伯克利分校经济学家BarryEichengreen表示:“全球对美元的信任和依赖是在半个世纪乃至更长的时间里建立起来的,但它可能会在眨眼之间消失。”

  ForestfortheTrees的创始人兼首席投资官LukeGromen在社交媒体上指出:“如果贸易谈判真的进行得非常好,特朗普就不会攻击鲍威尔了。”

  Schwab金融研究中心首席固定收益策略师KathyJones告诫说,试图解雇鲍威尔可能会加剧对美国国债和美元的抛售,这种模式通常只出现在新兴市场经济体或当对一个国家的治理信心被动摇时才会出现。

  野村证券认为,特朗普对美联储的公开批评可能会影响降息的进程,进而提高人们对未来通胀的预期,这可能导致美债市场再次出现不稳定。

  每经编辑杜宇

  据央视新闻4月19日消息,塔斯社当地时间4月18日报道,俄罗斯联邦安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫当天表示,若乌克兰问题谈判没有进展,美国将不再参与斡旋的决定是“明智的”,欧洲也应该这么做。俄罗斯将“更快”解决问题。

  18日,美国总统特朗普表示,如果谈判无法在短期内取得明确进展,美国将不再参与斡旋。他说,如果某一方或双方让谈判变得非常困难,“我们将不再参与其中”。

  此前,美国国务卿鲁比奥17日在法国巴黎与乌克兰、法国、英国、德国官员就乌克兰问题进行了磋商。鲁比奥18日表示,就乌克兰问题的谈判不能一直停滞不前,如果短期内看不到俄罗斯和乌克兰达成一致的信号,美方不会继续撮合。

图片来源:视觉中国

  另据央视新闻,根据乌克兰最高拉达(议会)18日公布的信息,乌总统泽连斯基已经签署了有关将乌克兰战时状态和总动员令从2025年5月9日延长90天至8月6日的法令。

  同一天,俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫表示,为期30天的俄乌暂停打击能源基础设施约定期限已到期,但俄总统普京未就此作出新指示。

  佩斯科夫指出,俄罗斯遵守了俄乌暂停打击能源基础设施的约定,但乌克兰未能遵守。

  俄方指责乌克兰军队自3月18日相关约定生效以来对俄罗斯多个地区的能源目标发动了120多次袭击。

  而乌克兰也指责俄方同期30多次违反约定,打击了乌克兰各地的关键基础设施。

  中国社科院俄罗斯东欧中亚研究所研究员张弘在接受中央广播电视总台环球资讯广播采访时分析指出,佩斯科夫的表态说明,俄罗斯有可能退出有关暂停打击对方能源设施的计划,近期俄乌冲突还有可能继续升级。

  事实上,俄乌双方都没有完全认真执行暂停打击对方能源设施的协议。现在俄罗斯宣布协议到期,意味着俄罗斯可能会加大对乌克兰的能源设施的进攻力度,通过在战场上加大进攻力度,促使乌克兰软化立场,接受美俄在乌克兰停火问题上的一系列安排。

  俄乌和谈目前面临着巨大分歧,双方不仅在战略性问题上没有共识,在一些技术性问题上也没有政治互信。因此俄罗斯的表态也暗示着俄乌冲突可能会在下一阶段继续升级。

  美国总统特朗普18日声称,如果围绕乌克兰问题的谈判无法在短期内取得明确进展,美国将不再参与斡旋。

  张弘认为:美方表态显示特朗普政府对俄乌和谈的战略耐心正在消失。

  自特朗普开始第二任期以来,一直试图推动美俄战略缓和以及俄乌停火,但是俄乌和谈目前没有取得任何突破性进展。这导致特朗普上任百天要实现俄乌停火的计划有可能落空。

  美国国务卿鲁比奥的发言可以被视为向乌克兰和欧洲施加压力,暗示他们如果不配合特朗普推动俄乌和谈,一旦美国停止对乌克兰军援,乌克兰和欧洲必须要单独面对俄罗斯的外交和安全压力。

  这也显示出俄乌和谈其实对于特朗普政府而言不是必须完成的任务,一旦不符合美国的战略预期,美国就不会在这个问题上继续消耗下去。

  每日经济新闻综合央视新闻

  封面图片来源:央视新闻

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