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  欧洲信用评级机构Scope警告称,如果一场旷日持久的贸易战削弱了全球对美元的长期信任,或者如果唐纳德・特朗普总统实施更极端的措施,如资本管制,美国的信用评级可能会被下调。

  特朗普贸易关税政策引发的后果包括,今年以来美元兑其他主要货币出现了50多年来最急剧的下跌。而投资者用于对冲风险的信用违约互换(CDS)市场,已将美国信用评级最多下调五次的可能性纳入了定价考量。

  总部位于柏林的Scope与标普全球、穆迪和惠誉一样,被欧洲央行用于评估信用状况。该机构表示,美国自身是在贸易战中最易受冲击的国家之一,尤其是在一些更极端的情形下。

  这些极端情形包括一场长期的关税之争,以及(或者)美国实施资本管制——即对外国投资征税——这可能会导致出现能取代美元作为全球主导货币的“可行替代品”。

  “如果对美元特殊地位的疑虑增加,这对美国的信用状况将极为不利,”Scope的主权债务评级主管阿尔维塞・伦克-尤努斯在周二发布的一份报告中表示。

  Scope是首家在特朗普对二战后全球经济秩序进行重大调整之后,就美国信用评级可能被下调发出如此严厉警告的机构。

  Scope目前给予美国的信用评级为AA,展望为“负面”。这低于标普和惠誉的AA+评级,也低于穆迪的评级,穆迪是目前唯一一家仍将美国评为最高等级“AAA”的主要评级机构。

  伦克-尤努斯补充称,如果中国和欧盟深化贸易关系;如果中国进一步开放其经济;以及如果欧盟能够说服其公民更多地投资于该集团的重点项目,那么围绕美元地位的疑虑将会加剧。

  “这些变化不太可能迅速发生,”伦克-尤努斯说。

  Scope还对其他一些存在大量贸易顺差以及(或者)在金融方面对美国有较大风险敞口的国家发出了更广泛的警告。

  这些国家包括像爱尔兰这样顺应全球商业周期的开放型经济体、像意大利这样对融资利率上升较为敏感的国家、石油出口国,以及像土耳其和格鲁吉亚这样货币疲软的国家。

  “最终对经济增长、通货膨胀、公共债务、外部信用指标以及主权信用评级的影响,将最终取决于宏观经济环境,”Scope的报告称。

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