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  汇通财经APP讯——周三(4月16日)澳元和纽元延续五日连涨态势,中国最新公布的3月零售销售与工业产出数据远超预期,犹如一剂强心针,有效对冲了全球贸易紧张局势的阴霾。数据显示,在美国加征关税前,中国经济已蓄积强劲内生动力。

  澳元对美元一度上涨0.2%至0.6356,隔夜曾触及逾一周高点0.6381。澳元在0.6395/6409美元区域仍面临强劲的技术阻力,该区域阻碍了澳元此前的三次反弹。

  纽元兑美元一度上涨0.4%至0.5921,隔夜触及五个月高点0.5943。若能持续突破0.5929美元,则将通往11月高点0.6037美元。

  但澳新银行分析师发出预警,全球关税战的不确定性正形成“达摩克利斯之剑”,可能抑制消费与投资信心。该行新西兰经济主管SharonZollner透露,预计新西兰官方隔夜拆款利率(OCR)将在8月和10月两度下调至2.5%的历史低位,较此前3%的预测更为激进。市场普遍押注新西兰联储5月会议将启动25个基点的降息,秋季利率或跌破2.75%。

  总结:货币狂欢背后的风险暗流

  尽管中国经济数据短暂照亮汇市,但技术阻力与政策宽松预期正在形成多空拉锯。投资者需警惕关税政策突变可能引发的波动,同时密切关注澳纽央行即将开启的降息周期,这场由数据驱动的上涨盛宴或面临新的变数。

  北京时间13:21,澳元兑美元现报0.6345/46。

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