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由于特朗普政府单方面提出对主要贸易伙伴加征关税,全球资本市场近期剧烈波动,面临多年未见的严峻考验。

但过去一周来,A股一定程度上从最初的冲击中有所恢复,截至4月14日上证指数已经连涨5个交易日,正在逐步接近到关税冲击前的点位。

这期间,白酒、乳业、调味品等内需消费股整体上扬。正如各方机构所指出的,在当前大力提振国内消费的政策导向下,本就以国内消费为主的板块,展现出强大的稳定力。

白酒板块尤其如此。从加征关税传言尚未落地开始,不少避险资金就转入了白酒板块,白酒股逆势回涨。4月3日至14日,白酒板块共有五个交易日出现上涨,包括贵州茅台、五粮液、山西汾酒等头部白酒在内,不少白酒股已经修复了关税消息冲击的跌幅。

舍得酒业也是其中之一。4月3日至4月10日,舍得酒业五个交易日内涨幅达9.66%,主力净流入1.2亿元,周涨幅板块第一。

这并非近期个例。上个月披露的2024年年报显示,截至去年底舍得酒业的股东户数超过13.5万人,环比增长14.3%,两家新进股东跻身前十大股东阵容,同时公募指数基金“鹏华中证酒ETF”已经连续四个季度增持。

为什么舍得酒业会成为各类投资者的共同选择?

这是舍得酒业近期积极优化基本面、持续开展长期投资与真金白银回报投资者等多方举措的综合结果,其共同目标是实现企业的长远可持续发展,这些努力被投资者看在眼里。

扩大内需时代彰显白酒股“质价比”

“每有风吹草动,资金就拼命买白酒。”

这句股民间调侃的话,正是过去几个月A股市场的写照。每当资本市场由于外部原因出现波动,白酒板块总能逆势回涨。在关税风波影响下,近期白酒板块再次吸引资金涌入。

在其他外向型行业的对比下,白酒板块的“质价比”高度凸显:一方面白酒消费需求高度集中在国内、不受外部环境影响,具有较强的稳定性和可预测性,另一方面白酒板块整体业绩优良,但股价相较于盈利能力明显低估。

尽管行业面临调整期,白酒企业的业绩依然“能打”。中国酒业协会披露的数据显示,2024年白酒行业销售收入7963.84亿元,同比增长5.3%,白酒行业利润2508.65亿元,同比增长7.76%。这样的盈利能力,在整个消费板块依然少见。

但与此同时,白酒板块的估值还在历史低位。截至4月14日,白酒板块的PE估值百分位仅13.53%,仍然处于低估阶段。

随着扩大内需、提振消费被提升到了国家战略的高度,资金进一步转向以内需为主的消费板块,盈利性、稳定性、自主性兼具的白酒板块自然成为投资者的优选。

招商证券研报就认为,未来政策有望在内需上发力,食品饮料板块或成为资金避险选择。其中当前白酒板块仍在探底过程中,但估值性价逐渐凸显,加之受关税影响小,配置价值提升。

事实上,数据显示,白酒板块今年上涨2%,保持正增长。

而具体分析来看,股价持续保持增长的,主要是正在积极优化基本面、开展消费者培育的名酒。

两方面缺一不可。一方面,往往名酒才有穿越周期的经验,并且拥有充足的优质产能、储能。另一方面,只有实事求是、尊重市场的白酒企业才能真正把控行业脉搏。

正如中信证券研报所说,当前正处于宏观周期调整和白酒自身周期调整的过程中,需要企业能积极寻求新场景、新消费和新模式,随着宏观经济的复苏和消费的提振,白酒行业有望逐步向上,以消费者培育为根基品牌力持续提升的名酒企业会有更好的表现,产业分化将更加极致。

舍得酒业正是这类白酒股的代表。

今年3月14日白酒板块大涨,舍得酒业当天涨停,并于次日连涨创下今年股价新高。4月以来面临资本市场波动,舍得酒业股价持续回涨,并再度接近上个月的年内股价高点。4月7日至11日五个交易日内,舍得酒业以周内正增长收官,涨幅位居A股白酒板块第一。

多举措擦亮舍得酒业投资价值

为什么舍得酒业能赢得投资者的青睐?

这是多方举措合力的结果。几方面的“坚持”,让市场再次看到了舍得酒业的长期投资价值。

首先,从有利于主业健康发展出发,坚持主动调整、改善基本面。管理层求真务实,用短期承压换来了长期稳健发展。

2024年,面临行业进一步深度调整,渠道库存压力进一步加大。摆在不少白酒企业面前的抉择是:到底是要长期健康发展?还是压货换取报表高增长?近期在白酒行业峰会上,行业协会、头部企业都公开表态,呼吁白酒企业从追求规模增长转入追求发展质量。

舍得酒业先行一步,身体力行兑现了这一行业共识。去年舍得酒业主动控速,严格执行“控量、挺价、清库存”方针,为渠道减负保利润。舍得酒业用自身业绩短暂承压,释放了渠道压力,并且稳住了经销商的信心和信任。

渠道释压后,今年舍得酒业得以装上阵。今年春节期间,舍得酒、沱牌酒的开瓶率分别同比增长70%、87%,取得良好开局。

华西证券研报也提到,经过2024年的坚定调整,舍得酒业社会库存及动销状况持续向好,大单品价格体系维护初见成效,2025年有望恢复成长性。

基本面改善的同时,舍得酒业并没有停下推进既有战略的脚步。

一方面,继续强化“老酒”和“生态”两大标签。

舍得酒业不仅携手行业协会发布了《坛贮老酒(浓香型白酒)》《生态酿酒评价规范白酒企业》两项团体标准,并开展了老酒相关科研成果的研究认证,进一步巩固舍得生态酿酒和老酒品质价值体系的构建,以标准制定者的身份强化在老酒赛道、生态酿酒赛道上的领先优势。

另一方面,开拓增量动作不停,持续扩大消费者培育。

顺应电商渠道发展趋势,去年舍得酒业积极拓展电商业务,全年渠道销售增长至4.46亿元,增长3.08%。同时舍得酒业加快布局海外业务,增加至36个国家和地区,两个深耕市场动销平均增长200%,同时舍得的品牌营销活动也成功在欧洲落地。

其次,从有利于企业长期发展角度出发,坚持长期投入、多方布局。

一方面是持续开展白酒投资,拓展主业深度。

去年舍得酒业建成了龙池生态酿酒车间等项目,今年智慧包装中心、芳樽酒堡正式启用,进一步夯实舍得酒业的产能、储能和效率优势。年报显示,截至2024年末,舍得酒业含基酒的半成品酒近16万吨。

舍得酒业的资产也在继续增厚。2024年末,舍得酒业总资产增长至118.02亿元,归属上市公司股东净资产68.08亿元,同比增长近一倍。

另一方面投资酒旅融合项目,拓展产业宽度。

今年3月,舍得酒业公告将与控股方沱牌舍得集团、射洪酒投公司合作打造酒旅融合项目,探索发展新增量。

这一总投资12亿元的酒旅融合项目,不仅展示出复星方面对于舍得酒业一如既往的支持,也展示出射洪当地政府围绕舍得酒业做大产业链的信心。

同时,从有利于提振投资者信心角度出发,坚持真金白银开展投资回报。

舍得酒业是少数已经连续出资回购股份的白酒上市公司,过去两年已经三度开展回购。在2023年8月、2024年2月两度提出回购股份后,舍得酒业2024年10月再次提出回购公司股份,截至2025年3月31日本次已经累计回购157.6万股,出资金额9442.3万元。算上前两次的回购,舍得酒业目前为止已经共计出资近6亿元,真金白银证明了企业对自身发展的信心。

不止如此。舍得酒业今年已经提出了全新的限制性股票激励计划(草案),当中对2025年至2027年的业绩提出了考核要求,同样证明了管理层对自身经营的信心。

此外,尽管去年业绩承压,舍得酒业再次提高了分红比例。

根据其2024年度利润分配方案,舍得酒业拟每10股派发现金红利4.3元(含税),合计拟派发现金红利1.42亿元(含税),占2024年度归属于母公司股东净利润的40.94%。虽然总额由于业绩承压有所下调,这一分红金额依然高于往年盈利接近的年份,同时这一分红比例也高于2023年的40.19%,再创新高。

面临行业调整、市场波动,舍得酒业不冒进、不回避,始终从自身现实出发,用“坚持”诠释了名酒的担当和坚守,让资本市场捕捉到其整体向好的趋势。未来随着扩大内需战略常态化、白酒行情明朗化,短期向好、长期可期的舍得酒业,有望收获市场更广泛的认可。

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