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  由于能源产品成本下降,美国3月进口价格意外下跌,但在贸易紧张局势升温的情况下,这一下降趋势不太可能持续。

  美国劳工部劳工统计局周二表示,上月进口价格下降了0.1%,2月进口价格经向下修正后为上涨0.2%。接受路透社调查的经济学家此前预测,不包括关税的进口价格在2月此前公布的上涨0.4%之后将保持不变。

  在截至3月的12个月里,进口价格上涨了0.9%。

  这份报告与疲软的消费者和生产者价格数据一致,表明在唐纳德・特朗普总统对进口商品实施广泛关税生效之前,通货膨胀正在消退。特朗普的贸易战,并使金融市场陷入动荡,引发了人们对高通胀、经济增长乏力甚至衰退的担忧。

  上周公布的美联储3月18日至19日会议纪要显示,政策制定者几乎一致认为,美国经济面临着通胀上升和增长放缓同时出现的风险,也就是通常所说的滞胀风险。

  金融市场预计,在1月暂停加息后,美国中央银行将在6月恢复降息,并在今年将其政策利率下调100个基点。

  目前,美联储的基准隔夜利率处于4.25%至4.50%的区间。

  进口燃料价格在2月上涨1.6%之后,3月下降了2.3%。食品价格在前一个月持平后小幅上涨了0.1%。不包括燃料和食品,进口价格连续第二个月上涨0.1%。在截至3月的12个月里,所谓的核心进口价格上涨了1.1%。

  随着美元兑美国主要贸易伙伴货币走弱,进口价格可能会进一步上涨。

  今年到目前为止,贸易加权美元已下跌约2.6%,其中大部分跌幅出现在3月以及4月的前几周,因为白宫加大了关税力度。

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