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  来源:证券之星

  市场全天低开后震荡反弹,创业板指领涨。

  盘面上,从板块来看,黄金股集体大涨,四川黄金等10余股涨停。大消费股再度活跃,电商、影视等方向领涨,国芳集团等多股涨停。机器人概念股展开反弹,京城股份涨停。

  截至收盘,沪指涨0.45%,深成指涨1.27%,创业板指涨1.59%。市场热点快速轮动,个股涨多跌少,全市场超4300只个股上涨。沪深两市全天成交额1.04万亿,较上个交易日放量1267亿。

  01. A股再现普涨格局

  今日,A股市场再迎普涨反弹,三大指数全线收红,量能较之上周五也有所提升。从热点方向看,多个板块表现亮眼。

  其中,黄金股再度走强,贵金属板块指数涨超9%。

  消息面上,黄金价格再度“创造历史”。国际黄金现货早盘时段继续冲高,一度站上3380美元/盎司,再创历史新高。国内方面,上期所黄金期货主力合约再度飙涨,一举突破800元/克关口,创历史新高;黄金珠宝品牌的实物黄金价格也随之上涨,多家品牌的足金饰品克价逼近1040元。

  平安证券表示,美国政府政策反复可能带来黄金短期波动率走高,但海外宏观不确定性持续,中期黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段。长期来看,美元信用走弱的主线逻辑或愈加清晰,黄金货币属性加速凸显,持续看好黄金中长期走势。

  大消费方向反复活跃,零售、电商、影视、宠物等多个细分板块均涨幅居前。

  值得注意的是,虽然大消费行情反复演绎,但内部分歧正在加剧,部分人气高标已然出现了退潮之疑虑(如泰慕士、贝因美、麦趣尔等个股上周五跌停)。对于后市,本轮消费股的炒作不会轻易终结,但分析人士预计,大概率是以个股抱团的形式为主,要重点留意各细分核心个股的市场反馈情况。

  此外,AI概念同样展开反弹,AI智能体与算力股均于盘中表现活跃。

  随着通用推理能力的进步,中信证券认为AI爆款应用有望在科研、编程等高价值场景率先解锁,软件、互联网有望受益。除去应用端的投资机会,中信证券认为硬件端的需求也必然会随着多模态技术的进步与应用而不断提高,中期维度,中信证券仍持续看好AI算力板块的投资机会。

  整体而言,在上周地量之后,两市成交额今日重回万亿元,虽然缩量整理格局短期或仍反复,但市场不存在大跌的风险。不过,在增量资金依旧不足的背景下,市场尚且无法支撑起多个热点普涨,分析人士预计,后续仍以震荡轮动为主,重点留意热点板块分歧回调时的低吸机会仍是关键。

  02. 并购重组背后三大信号

  近期,A股并购重组市场持续活跃,年内已有约60家上市公司首次披露并购重组事件,远高于去年同期水平。市场人士认为,并购重组将成为贯穿2025年资本市场的“重头戏”,更多优质企业有望通过并购重组的方式集聚优势资源、做强做优。

  并购重组活跃的背后,有三重信号。

  第一,政策支持。近期,多地出台涉及并购重组的相关支持政策,广州发布“并购重组十条”,南京出台九条措施支持企业并购重组,上海鼓励民营企业聚焦新质生产力强链补链和传统产业转型升级开展并购重组……各地密集出台支持性政策展现了持续性、系统性和协同性,释放出积极信号。

  第二,资金支持加力。近期,各地掀起一轮并购基金成立潮。国内目前规模最大的专业医疗并购基金——北京亦庄康桥产业投资基金已落地,该基金与康桥美元基金组成规模超70亿元人民币的并购基金,目标规模100亿元,将聚焦医疗健康行业的并购整合。

  在此前举办的2025上海全球投资促进大会上,上海市国资委发布国资并购基金矩阵,总规模500亿元以上,将聚焦国有经济布局优化、结构调整和上海市重点产业领域强链补链,发挥国有资本引领带动作用。此外,还有不少上市公司也积极参与产业并购基金的设立。并购基金资金渠道后续有望进一步拓宽。

  第三,“硬科技”领衔。并购重组是支持经济转型升级、实现高质量发展的重要市场工具。近期,“硬科技”领域并购重组代表性案例不断涌现:宁波方正(维权)筹划购买骏鹏通信60%股权,光韵达拟以不超6.5亿元现金收购亿联无限100%股份……

  未来,科技型企业有望迎来新一轮并购潮。东兴证券分析师刘嘉玮表示,拥有关键核心技术的科技型企业并购重组的“绿色通道”有望开启,优质行业头部公司将作为并购重组主体,推动上市公司之间吸收合并。

  03. 中国股市的升势远未结束

  展望后市,机构对A股行情依然看好。国泰海通建议投资者,应该尽快转变对股市主要矛盾的认识,提高中国配置。

  首先,经过三年出清和调整,投资人对经济形势的估计是充分的,已有共识对估值收缩的影响是递减的。

  其次,海外扰动变化显示美国面临滞胀、美元信用的约束,后续或仍有反复,但不确定性最大的时候或已过去,股市触底并不取决于不确定性减小,在于不确定性不再变大。

  最后,中国股市估值的主要矛盾正在发生转变,要看到中国的确定性,贴现率下降是2025年中国股市上升的关键动力。更加积极有为且后备充足工具箱的经济政策、以“投资者为本”的资本市场制度改革、“持续稳定股市楼市”的表态,有望带动中国股市风险溢价系统性下移,而无风险利率下降将成为增量入市的关键一环。

  随着投资者关于内外部的疑虑消减,中国股市也有望走出升势。因此,国泰海通依然战略性看多。配置方面,新兴科技是主线,金融周期是黑马,可关注三条主线:

  一是金融与高分红,无风险利率下降与增量入市,推荐券商/保险/银行;同时,可关注具备股息与稳健经营优势的央企高分红股,推荐运营商/高速公路/公共事业。二是新兴科技成长,推荐港股互联网/传媒游戏/信创/半导体/算力/医药。三是顺周期的回归,推荐地产/有色/化工/建材/零食/化妆品。

 

  4月21日金融一线消息,中国银行近日发布2024年年度A股派息实施公告,2024年末期利润分配以方案实施前的该行普通股总股本294,387,791,241股为基数,每股派发现金红利0.1216元人民币(税前),共计派发现金红利357.98亿元人民币(税前);其中A股普通股股本2107.66亿股,派发A股现金红利256.29亿元人民币(税前)。

  中国银行已派发2024年中期现金红利每股0.1208元人民币(税前),连同本次末期现金红利,2024年全年现金红利为每股0.2424元(税前),全年普通股派息总额约为713.60亿元人民币(税前)。

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