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  来源:A智慧保

  4月18日,金融监管总局发布《关于推动深化人身保险行业个人营销体制改革的通知》,对于超百万保险代理人而言,这不啻为30多年来最为明显的政策信号。

  过去四年,大个险的市场面貌已经天翻地覆,改革成本降低,改革时机或是最佳。此次文件提出,逐步构建支持保险销售人员长期服务的组织架构、晋升体系和佣金薪酬激励制度,支持保险销售人员参加社会保险、办理居住证等,建立有中国特色的保险销售人员荣誉评价体系。这些是从激励角度出发,凡事有奖有罚,才能赏罚分明。因此,文件也要求深化执行“报行合一”,建立因保险销售人员违法违规导致经济损失的佣金薪酬追索扣回机制。

  从职业化到专业化

  自1992年个人保险代理人模式引入内地保险市场以来,个人营销经历了周期转换,从初期的快速发展和盛极一时,到近年来的大幅萎缩,原有的金字塔模式难以维系,但新营销模式尚未建立,虽有“大破”,尚未“大立”。

  在巅峰期,全行业有接近1000万的保险代理人,而伴随着个险增长的停滞和银保渠道重返C位,这一数字已降至300万以下。也就是说短短五六年,700万人从这个行业流失。即使这里面有保险公司主动清虚的原因,也不能否认因人的减少而导致规模的减速。

  当初的“大进大出”和“人海战术”适应跑马圈地、野蛮生长的市场草创期,成绩不小,问题不少,销售误导的现象十分严重,代理人的职业化和专业化程度都严重不足。当市场进入成熟期,当大规模同质化的需求被填满之后,如何进一步服务高端需求、个性需求和长尾需求,便成为摆在个人营销体制面前的时代答卷。可以说,保险营销体制改革是保险业高质量发展的必经之路。

  原来的保险代理人与保险公司,因利相交,利尽而散,职业认同感和归属感不高。保险是最复杂的金融产品之一,有着极高的专业门槛,如果代理人在销售的时候专业能力不足,简单当理财产品卖,会给消费者造成很多负面观感。

  如果对职业没有认同感和归属感,就会短期化和势利化,在销售端就极容易出现佣金和风险的背离。因此,实现职业化,不仅涉及到收入利益的重新分配,让保险代理人有更多的获得感,同时也涉及到社保、荣誉和文化。而职业化之后,才能致力于专业化,也是市场当前对于代理人的最大需求。

  从短期主义到长期主义

  原来的个人营销金字塔模式,管理佣金逐级抽成,客观形成“拉人头”的激励机制,层级越高,收入越高。而在原来的增量市场竞争中,即使底层代理人也能暂时获益,但这也在无形之中助长了“大进大出”,没有长远规划,而当自身的资源和关系被耗尽之时,也就没有了上涨和进步空间,只能打一枪换一个地方。一旦市场从增量竞争转向存量竞争,流动亦不可得,只能“流失”。

  先立后破。贸然打破金字塔模式,会导致矛盾瞬间尖锐和利益分配逻辑的混乱。当务之急,是提高代理人的专业化和精英化,将其收入与保单质量和客户的全生命周期深度绑定,克服短期主义,导向长期主义,渐进式地推动个人营销体制的变革。

  克服短期主义,就要在薪酬和晋升方面树立长期主义,破除营销重于服务的观念,同时将收入和风险的久期匹配,薪酬追索扣回在银行业早已普及,是对销售短期行为和违规违法行为的有力震慑。

  涉及人的转型最难,所谓“百万槽工衣食所系”。无论是寿险改革还是代理人转型,保险公司里不同职级和条线的人,对保险高质量发展的理解不一,不同圈层的人都有各自的既得利益,所以改革往往会出现“破”易“立”难、进退失据的局面。精英化和数字化久久为功,属于前人栽树,颇考验决心和毅力。

  任何改革的核心,都是利益如何重新分配,分配不好,就会被抵制或消解。以前在金字塔模式里还能找增量,改革阻力较大,现在“穷”则思变,改革阻力变小,正是建立个人营销体制新模式的时间窗口。当再也摘不到低垂果实时,不妨去学习如何造梯子。

  日前,博时基金策划召开《东升西落·日异月殊——博时基金2025二季度策略会》系列直播,携手多家券商机构共同发声,探讨当下市场及未来展望。同时,博时基金还策划了【科技时代——2025科技投资系列圆桌线上沙龙】,聚焦中国科技突破五大主题:AI硬件、AI软件、智能驾驶、机器人、创新药,呈现产业趋势研判与投资逻辑方法。

  随着AI助力下的“第四次科技革命”曙光初现,围绕“DeepSeek与AI投资”热门话题,博时基金权益投资四部投资副总监兼基金经理肖瑞瑾与华泰证券电子与计算机首席分析师谢春生、博时基金首席数字官车宏原、博时基金行业研究部研究员肖达四位投研专家,通过多方视角碰撞,深入解析DeepSeek带来的AI投资机遇与挑战。

  ————————————————————

  把握AI硬件的崛起机遇

  本次圆桌深入剖析了DeepSeek对AI大模型、AI算力、AI端侧、AI应用四大行业的重要影响——从大模型开源带来的国产替代机遇,到算力基建的长期投入;从企业级应用的效率提升,到端侧AI驱动的消费电子升级。种种迹象表明,中国AI产业正迎来战略窗口期。

  ————————————————————

  AI大模型:开源浪潮缩短中美差距,通用与垂直领域齐头并进

  自Deep Seek推出低成本、高效率的开源大模型以来,全球AI产业格局加速重构。圆桌伊始,主持人肖瑞瑾指出,Deep Seek的快速迭代不仅提振了国内投资者信心,更将中美人工智能大模型技术差距缩短至约三个月。

  华泰证券谢春生表示,在算力资源受限的背景下,中国大模型厂商展现出了超预期的迭代能力,对中国大模型厂商的长期竞争力有充分信心。以Deep Seek为例,其模型迭代能力已接近美国一线水平,并通过与国产芯片的适配,逐步实现模型训练与英伟达GPU的解耦,形成“算力-模型-应用-终端”全链条闭环。他进一步分析,未来全球大模型发展将呈现两大趋势:

  训练重心从“预训练”转向“后训练”:Open AI等厂商已开始探索后训练优化路径,预训练的ScalingLaw(规模定律)面临瓶颈。

  通用与垂直大模型齐头并进:用户和数据是构建通用大模型、垂直大模型的核心壁垒,基于用户衍生的生态所沉淀的数据,会成为大模型进一步迭代的核心要素。未来会看到通用大模型和垂类大模型齐头并进,在不同方向有新的进展。

  ————————————————————

  国产算力:短期受限,长期可期

  针对算力问题,博时基金行业研究部研究员肖达指出,当前DeepSeek与国产算力适配情况不错,但制造算力芯片所需要的先进半导体制程国产能力不足。算力芯片通常需要使用7nm以下工艺制程,但所需的EUV光刻机目前被海外禁运,同时与之相关的其他关键设备、材料和工艺能力距离海外厂商仍有显著差距。

  不过,随着国内光刻机技术突破及定制化芯片开发,国产算力有望在未来3-5年缩小差距。他特别提到,2025年国内AI基础设施资本支出计划近5000亿元,但相比美国前五大云厂商合计的3000亿美金规模仍有差距,需持续加大投入以应对推理需求的非线性增长。

  ————————————————————

  AI应用:企业部署加速,AIAgent开启人机协同新时代

  企业级应用进入快车道

  博时基金首席数字官车宏原介绍,国内正处于企业快速部署DeepSeek的时期,大模型与业务流程深度结合,博时基金已率先行动大幅提升私有算力,相对去年提升了数倍。目前,国内金融、教育、法律、医疗等各个行业都在积极引入Deep Seek等国产模型,例如,在企业人力资源部门,AI可高效筛选简历数据,协助企业招聘,辅助提升企业经营效率等。但他同时指出,当前企业算力需求激增,部分行业面临算力扩容挑战,需通过资源池管理、推理加速等技术优化应对瓶颈。

  AIAgent的潜力与边界

  针对近期热门的AIAgent(智能体),车宏原认为类似Manus的AIAgent已在专题研究、报告撰写、软件开发、智能助理等场景中达到了较好的效果,但受限于底层大模型的幻觉风险与黑箱等问题,某些场景下甚至可能放大缺陷,因此在使用AIAgent的过程中离不开人类的判断和决策。他预测,未来AIAgent将分化为通用型与专业型两类,前者由大模型厂商主导,后者则依赖行业生态构建,形成“共生共存”的竞争格局。

  ————————————————————

  AI端侧:硬件升级周期,消费电子产业链迎新机遇

  端侧AI普及加速

  主持人、博时基金权益投资四部投资副总监兼基金经理肖瑞瑾在总结中指出,除了AI企业应用如雨后春笋般普及外,我们也留意到AI正在走向端侧,即走向我们每天使用的智能手机、平板电脑、个人PC以及耳机、手表等IOT设备——端侧AI正从概念走向现实。通过模型蒸馏技术,DeepSeek的7B参数小模型已可在笔记本电脑流畅运行,未来更小模型将适配手机、耳机等设备,实现实时翻译、环境感知、智能生活助理等功能。

  硬件升级与产业链受益

  端侧AI对本地算力需求有限,但复杂任务仍需云端协同。肖瑞瑾预测,为提升用户体验,AI端侧等有望迎来硬件升级周期,国内消费电子产业链(芯片、零组件、组装)及AI原生应用开发商将显著受益。此外,中美在端侧AI领域技术差距较小,中国凭借完善的消费电子产业链,有望赶上差距,推动移动互联网时代走向真正的原生AI应用时代。

  ————————————————————

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