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4月16日,中美贸易摩擦再度升级,成为全球金融市场的“震源”。中国南方航空宣布暂停10架二手波音787-8飞机交易,这一决定背后是两国关税战的直接交锋——美国对中国商品加征145%关税,中国同步实施125%报复性关税,导致原本计划的飞机资产置换被迫搁置。作为全球最大航空集团之一,南航的举动不仅冲击波音公司在华业务,更预示着中美高端制造业博弈已从新订单拓展至二手设备交易领域,产业链的连锁反应正在显现。特朗普政府同日启动的关键矿产关税调查,将稀土、铀等战略资源纳入审查,进一步表明贸易冲突正从传统商品领域向国家安全相关的核心产业蔓延。

  美元指数上演“技术性反弹”,长期疲弱格局未改

  受超卖技术面驱动,美元指数从三年低点99.00附近反弹至100.12,但市场对这一回升普遍持谨慎态度。美联储理事沃勒“衰退风险下支持降息”的言论虽短暂提振美元,但密歇根消费者信心指数跌至50.8、一年期通胀预期飙升至6.7%等数据,暴露美国经济“滞胀”压力加剧。更关键的是,特朗普政府关税政策的反复(如近期对部分进口商品关税的临时豁免与重启),正在削弱美元作为全球储备货币的稳定性,市场对“去美元化”的讨论持续升温。技术层面,尽管相对强弱指标(RSI)显示短期超卖反弹可能,但移动平均收敛背离指标(MACD)仍释放看跌信号,20日均线(102.97)构成强阻力位,暗示美元中长期下行趋势未改。

  黄金避险属性爆发,在“乱世”中刷新历史高点

  贸易战升级催生的避险需求,推动现货黄金在周二突破3270美元/盎司,创下历史新高。这一涨势背后有多重支撑:首先,中美在航空、矿产等战略领域的对抗,促使投资者加速配置黄金对冲不确定性;其次,中国央行连续四个月增持黄金储备,全球央行2025年1月净买入18吨,凸显官方层面的“去美元化”行动;从技术面看,黄金周线图完成“看涨吞噬”形态,突破双重上升通道,确认长期牛市趋势。高盛等机构预测,到2026年中期金价有望升至4000美元/盎司,短期阻力位看向3298-3306美元,而3173美元(上周五低点)成为关键支撑,回调至此可视为逢低布局机会。

  比特币多空博弈胶着,杠杆退潮下陷入震荡整理

  与黄金的“避险狂欢”形成对比,比特币在8.4万美元附近陷入震荡,未能延续4月11日8亿美元净买入引发的反弹势头。当前市场呈现明显的“衍生品驱动”特征:BTC-USDT期货杠杆率下降50%,反映资金正从高杠杆交易撤离;而80000-90000美元区间堆积的113.6亿美元多空清算头寸,成为价格波动的“定时炸弹”——若突破90035美元,65亿美元空单将遭遇强制平仓,反之跌至80071美元则会抹去48.6亿美元多单。值得注意的是,散户与现货市场参与度仍较低,机构对后市分歧加剧:渣打银行看好比特币2025年底达20万美元,但技术面显示需现货与期货同步放量才能突破关键阻力,短期内建议投资者保持观望,避免追涨杀跌。

  原油与美股承压,贸易战对实体经济的传导加剧

  除金融市场外,贸易冲突对实体经济的冲击也在显现。OPEC+意外增产41.1万桶/日,叠加中美贸易战抑制能源需求预期,布伦特原油价格跌至65.58美元/桶,创两年最大周跌幅,反映市场对全球经济增速放缓的担忧。美股方面,标普500指数较2月高点下跌超10%,进入技术性调整区间,科技股领跌(纳指周跌4%),投资者担心关税壁垒抬高企业成本,拖累盈利预期。这种“风险资产受挫、避险资产走强”的分化格局,正考验着全球投资组合的配置策略。

  三大变量主导后市,交易需紧盯政策与数据窗口

  展望后市,有三个关键因素将决定市场走向:其一,美联储5月利率决议,若降息概率升至75%,可能提振风险资产,但需警惕通胀黏性导致的政策滞后;其二,4月22日美国对华半导体关税听证会,若进一步升级可能引发科技产业链重构,利好黄金等避险资产;其三,OPEC+5月会议是否调整增产计划,若维持当前政策,油价或下探60美元,加剧全球滞胀压力。

  对于交易者而言,黄金可逢回调至3173美元附近分批做多,目标看向3300美元;美元反弹至101.80美元可尝试空单,止损设于102.50;比特币则建议等待明确突破信号,避免在高清算区间频繁操作。在贸易战阴云不散的当下,保持仓位灵活、严格设置止损,仍是应对市场不确定性的核心原则。

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