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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82

Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82
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  成也“金融酒”、败也“金融酒”。

  岩石股份这份年报带来更多启示。

  文丨朱浪

  4月21日,岩石股份披露了或许是2024年白酒上市公司中“变脸最大”的年报。

  年报显示,2024年岩石股份营收2.85亿元,同比下跌82.54%,归母净利润-2.17亿元,同比下滑349%;公司经营活动现金流净额-7546万元,较上年3.98亿元大跌119%,资金链濒临断裂。

  受此影响,4月22日停牌一天后,岩石股份4月23日起被实施退市风险警示,更名为*ST岩石(维权)(注:因岩石股份曾多次调整股票简称,为避免混淆,文中仍以“岩石股份”作为公司简称)。

  历史总是惊人的相似。

  305年前,1720年英国发生“南海泡沫”事件。曾提出万有引力定律和牛顿三大运动定律、被誉为科学巨匠的牛顿禁不住暴利诱惑,投资购买英国南海公司股票。最初股市暴涨,牛顿很快赚到5000英镑。1720年秋天泡沫破灭,南海公司股价暴跌87.5%,牛顿损失了20000英镑,相当于他当造币厂厂长10年的收入。

  对于这段经历,牛顿留下名言:“我能精确计算出天体运行的轨迹,却难以预料到人性的疯狂。”这句话或许同样能够击穿曾经火爆的酒类投资泡沫。

  █ 

  热钱资本,瞄准白酒市场

  按时间推算,岩石股份进军白酒算是新兵。

  2018年底,当时的岩石股份以200多万元收购一家线上白酒销售平台——贵州贵酒云电子商务有限公司,正式进入白酒赛道。2019年底,公司以“经营状况不达预期、减少亏损”为由,出售贵酒云及子公司贵酒销售全部股权,并成立上海军酒有限公司改卖散酒。

  2019年,岩石股份宣布变更公司名称为“上海贵酒股份有限公司”。但截至2019年上半年,公司白酒销售尚不足250万元。彼时的岩石股份在白酒赛道仍只能算试水。

  变化很可能来自股市。

  2019年前后,A股酿酒板块迎来一轮大牛市,很多酒类股票上涨5-10倍,甚至出现上市公司“沾酒必涨”现象,大量业外热钱涌入,岩石股份随即快速布局白酒。

  2020年底,岩石股份以8600万现金收购江西章贡酒业和赣州长江实业两家公司各25%股权,控股股东还将持有贵州高酱酒业有限公司52%股权无偿赠与公司。

  章贡酒业是江西知名酒企,成品酒产能3万吨/年;长江实业负责章贡酒销售和推广;高酱酒业从事大曲酱香基酒的生产和储存,被授权贴牌生产销售酱香型白酒,2020年停工五年的高酱刚全面复产。至此,岩石股份终于在白酒生产端补齐短板。

  █ 

  卖酒不赚钱、炒股赚钱

  2020-2023年,岩石股份营收从7971.77万猛涨至16.29亿元,并在2021年成功摘帽。

  多位酒业人士表示,作为一家成立时间短、品牌历史文化欠缺的白酒企业,岩石股份业绩能够一飞冲天,很大程度上是敢于“砸钱”。

  2020-2023年,岩石股份销售费用分别为11.36亿、10.87亿、7.21亿、7.21亿。同期对应的公司营收为7971.77万、6.03亿、10.91亿、16.29亿。2023年白酒上市公司销售占比中位数为17.80%,从正常角度看,投入产出明显不合理。

  吊诡的是,2020-2021年期间,岩石股份股价一路高涨,从7.70元最高上摸51.66元,涨幅超过600%。

  有专业人士认为,“卖酒不赚钱、炒股赚钱”往往是资本酒的特征。资本市场的拔苗助长终究未能成功,2024年年报即说明问题。

  █ 

  酒是用来喝的,不是用来炒的

  岩石股份市场快速起落,除了将热钱投向市场外,也离不开其独创的“金融酒”销售模式。

  有公司老员工回忆,2019年公司实控人刚收购酒厂,高薪招聘员工但迟迟不出业绩,就推出一个营销策略。一个销售经理打款5000块,就能从公司拿价值5000块的酒,还能拿到4500块工资加1000块奖励,公司还给交社保公积金。对员工来说,虽每月工资要提前垫资,但可免费获得大量白酒,是笔“稳赚不赔”的买卖。

  受利益驱动,有人拿出多年积蓄或向亲朋好友借钱加入上海贵酒,变相成为其经销商,在其业绩增长中扮演关键角色。甚至公司团队会批量从农村购买大量身份证,伪装成“新入职员工”,还给办理社保、签订劳动合同。

  专业人士分析,按照买酒发工资模式,岩石股份销售的已不是白酒,而是一种高回报的投资理财产品,只有通过越来越多后期进入者不断融资,才能支付前期投入者的资金和利息。

  显然,白酒卖到这般地步,已沦为一种金融工具。岩石股份在一定程度上成也“金融酒”、败也“金融酒”。

  350年前牛顿就表示,股票生意失败不是因为自己缺乏计算分析能力,而是无法预测人性的疯狂。岩石股份爆雷离不开“资本酒”“金融酒”大背景,人性的贪婪才是根本。

  试想,一家白酒公司凭借“卖酒不赚钱、炒股赚钱”做大,依靠“员工买酒发工资”动销,完全脱离正常商业逻辑,却能快速做大甚至以“创新者”标榜,鲜艳之下很可能潜藏隐忧,最终爆发。

  这或许是这份特殊的年报,留给行业的启示。

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