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张津瑜6分钟35秒:重塑行业格局的创新策略与机遇解析
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张津瑜6分钟35秒:重塑行业格局的创新策略与机遇解析

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西藏自治区

  来源:国际金融报

  自2016年上市后,一路小跑连续八年营收增长的千禾味业(603027.SH)遭遇滑铁卢。

  近日,公司披露了2024年年报,期内实现营收30.73亿元,同比下降4.16%;归母净利润5.14亿元,同比下降3.07%;扣非后归母净利润5.03亿元,同比下降5.12%;公司经营活动现金流也由上年的4.7亿元降至3.38亿元,降幅达28%。

  根据千禾味业此前制定的股权激励计划,2024年营收、净利润(扣非后的归母净利润)目标是,在2021年的基础上分别增长不低于89%、201%,即36.38亿元、6.56亿元,均未达标。

  营收、利润双降,千禾味业依然不吝分红。

  公告显示,公司计划向全体股东进行现金分红,每10股分配现金5元(含税),拟派发现金红利约5.14亿元(含税),占归母净利润的99.94%。

  其中过半分红将会流入创始人家族。截至去年末,创始人家族成员伍超群、伍建勇、伍学明为千禾味业第一、二、三的股东,持股比例分别为40.67%、9.16%、0.79%,合计持股超50%。

  酱油食醋收入波动

  作为一家调味品企业,公司收入主要靠酱油、食醋等产品售卖而来。

  2024年,千禾味业酱油产品销售45.32万吨,同比增长1.27%;收入19.64亿元,同比下降3.75%。销量上涨收入却下降,华创证券研报指出,其酱油产品价盘下降明显,降幅5%。

  酱油产品其实一直是公司业绩支柱,近年来持续贡献六成以上营收,且上市以来均保持正增长,发展势头良好。这也是酱油自2016年后首次出现营收下滑。

  2023年的高基数是影响业绩下滑的因素之一。最近几年,千禾味业凭借零添加特色,“吃”到了海天酱油添加剂“双标”事件红利,酱油收入从2021年的超11亿元跃升至次年的超15亿元,再到2023年的超20亿元,业绩大幅上涨。

  另一方面,随着添加剂事件影响渐消,且海天、李锦记等同行加速布局零添加产品,行业竞争加剧,千禾味业酱油售卖也受到影响。

  孙婉秋摄

  为了应对这些问题,公司去年积极进行调整。国泰君安研报显示,2024年,千禾味业为根除低价产品对品牌的不利影响,主动下架零售价7元的超低价零添加产品,将营销主要精力聚焦在9.9元产品上。

  报告期内,其还推出多款高端高品质产品,如千禾浓香酱油、千禾醇香醋、千禾松茸生抽、千禾挤挤瓶蚝油、千禾零添加减盐酱油等。常规而言,调整产品结构,推出高端产品,会拉动销售均价上涨,但从去年酱油吨价下滑5%来看,其高端化调整暂未取得明显成效。

  千禾味业第二大品类食醋的销售吨价同样有所下滑。

  去年该产品售卖11.46万吨,同比下降9.5%;收入3.7亿元,同比下降12.52%,降幅大于酱油;吨价也相应下滑3%。这也是上市以来食醋品类首次收入下滑。

  有分析认为,食醋业务表现弱于酱油主要因为消费力疲软背景下,食醋刚需属性弱于酱油。

  “大本营”失速

  2024年,千禾味业还对渠道端“动刀”。

  公司主要采取“经销为主+直销为辅”的双组合销售模式,报告期内,为提升渠道竞争力,千禾味业加强对经销商调整优化,全年新增经销商770个,减少了704个,净增66个至3316个。

  这一扩张步伐已有明显放缓。

  拉长时间线看,2020年—2023年,千禾味业经销商数量分别为1404个、1791个、2230个、3250个,对应增长387个、439个、1020个,逐年上涨。截至2025年第一季度,公司经销商数量已降至3282个,甚至出现负增长。

  制表:左宇

  渠道端的调整短期内也会对公司业绩产生一定影响。2024年,千禾味业线上收入同比下滑4.89%,线下同比下滑4%,双渠道承压。

  细分来看,2024年减少的704个经销商里,有312个属于西部区域。该区域年内仅增加211个经销商,净减少101个,也是所有区域里唯一总数下滑的。

  收入降幅也是所有区域里最大的。

  2024年,千禾西部区域营收从上年的12.29亿元降至11.2亿元,下滑8.89%,五个大区降幅最大,占总营收的比重超36%。西部地区作为公司“大本营”,2019年、2020年业绩贡献度还在50%以上,随着全国化推进,占比逐渐下降,但依然是业绩重镇。

  该区域失速也意味着,千禾味业在“大本营”的品牌影响力和产品认可度或有下降。另外,除南部区域外,其他区域营收也在下滑。

  公司营收罕见下滑,但投入的宣传推广费还在上涨。

  2024年,其销售费用为4.23亿元,同比上涨7.94%;销售费用率也增长1.5个百分点至13.76%,投放转化率不高。其中,促销及广告宣传费从上年的1.54亿元增至1.66亿元。

  存货周转天数走高

  千禾味业产品动销节奏放缓,存货规模也有所上涨。

  2024年,公司存货规模从上年的7.49亿元升至8.93亿元,上涨19.23%;存货周转天数从120天增至153天,库存积压压力加大,运营效率降低。

  相比同行而言这一周期较长,“行业一哥”海天味业2024年存货周转天数为54.63天,较上年的56.27天有所下降,平均不到两个月就能够完成从存货投入到生产再到出库销售的一个完整循环;恒顺醋业2024年前三季度存货周转天数为66.45天;ST加加2024年前三季度存货周转天数为133.73天。

  去年9月的中期业绩会上,就有投资者质疑,走访商超发现,千禾的产品生产日期普遍较早,不少是2024年初甚至2023年底生产的,是不是经销商去库存面临较大压力?

  转入2025年,还在调整阶段的千禾又添了“新烦恼”。

  年初,公司陷入食安风波,又被消费者质疑“千禾0”产品是否真的“零添加”,引发负面舆情。

  另外,3月国家新规明确,预包装食品不得使用“不添加”“零添加”等用语对食品配料进行特别强调。这对以“零添加”为核心卖点的千禾味业来说,也是不小的挑战,两年过渡期内更换包装的成本及如何重塑品牌认知、找到新的产品亮点,都是其需要面对的问题。

 

  据投资者和银行透露,越来越多富有的美国人正在瑞士开设银行账户,以此作为其投资组合“去美国化”的一部分。

  瑞士的银行表示,近几个月来,他们注意到美国高净值人士对开设投资账户的兴趣大增,相关业务也随之增多。

  瑞士金融咨询公司AlpenPartnersInternational的首席执行官PierreGabris说:“这种情况是一波一波出现的。奥巴马当选的时候,我们看到了一波热潮。然后新冠疫情引发了另一波。现在,关税问题又引发了新的一波。”

  Gabris表示,不同的客户开设账户的动机各不相同。

  许多人希望实现投资多元化,减少对美元的依赖,他们认为,在美国债务不断飙升的压力下,美元还会进一步贬值。瑞士中立的政治立场、稳定的经济、坚挺的货币以及可靠的法律体系都颇具吸引力。

  还有一些人是出于政治方面的考虑,他们认为在特朗普政府执政期间,美国的法治有所倒退。

  另外,也有一些人开设瑞士账户是为了在以黄金储存和精炼厂闻名的瑞士购买实物黄金。

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