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小雪胸好大做得很爽:对文化产业的影响分析
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小雪胸好大做得很爽:对文化产业的影响分析

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  来源:金十数据

  鲍威尔此次演讲的场地,正是特朗普此前大谈高关税与美联储主席更替的地方。

  今晚,所有目光都将聚焦在美联储主席鲍威尔身上。他将于北京时间4月17日凌晨1点半出席芝加哥经济俱乐部活动并发表讲话。全球投资人、分析师以及市场参与者都在等待鲍威尔对近期的一系列经济动态做出回应。

  有意思的是,鲍威尔此次演讲的场地,正是特朗普在2024年10月到访并大谈高关税与美联储主席更替的地方。尽管美国临时暂停了对全球75多个国家的关税,为期90天,但整体经济前景依然充满不确定性,市场对美国衰退的担忧正在升温。

  鲍威尔今天的讲话,势必将就经济现状、关税影响以及2025年利率走势提供重要线索。市场将重点关注三个悬念:

面对特朗普关税政策与白宫“换帅”压力,美联储将如何坚守独立决策的传统?通胀回落但衰退风险加剧的背景下,鲍威尔的降息预期会否有所改变?美联储内部“鹰鸽之争”逐渐白热化,沃勒等官员的激进降息主张会否影响决策?

  在此前的讲话中,鲍威尔表示,特朗普加征关税幅度远超美联储预期,对经济的影响可能比预期更大。因此,他认为,近期的政策影响具有高度不确定性,在进一步调整之前,将等待更明确的情况。他也强调称,当前政策立场良好,可以采取观望态度,政策仍具有适度限制性。至于美国经济是否会出现经济衰退,他指出,美联储并未对经济衰退的可能性进行概率预测,但外部预测机构已提高了该可能性。在降息预期方面,鲍威尔并未改变3月会议上的看法,认为经济增长疲软、通胀上升相互抵消,将使美联储维持对2025年降息两次的预期。

  鲍威尔正面临来自多方的“降息”压力。美国通胀似乎正在逐步回落。最新的3月CPI数据显示,通胀有进一步下行的趋势。与此同时,特朗普一直支持低利率政策,现在这立场也给鲍威尔制造了麻烦。如果迅速、大幅降息,可能再次引发通胀;但若延迟降息,又可能拖累美国经济。

  鲍威尔及大多数联储官员目前依旧认为,现在并不是降息的合适时机。尽管美国经济开始显现疲态,尤其在就业市场,但美联储似乎仍倾向于维持政策利率稳定,以防特朗普关税带来新一轮通胀。美联储3月会议纪要显示,其经济预测与点阵图暗示2025年可能有两次降息。

  但是,特朗普的关税政策不仅提高了美国陷入衰退的风险,也可能迫使美联储出台更多、更激进的降息措施。与此同时,市场表现依旧低迷,反映出此前对美联储政策转向宽松的憧憬未能转化为实质反弹。投资者纷纷选择观望、趋于谨慎。

  值得注意的是,就在本周一,美国财政部长贝森特宣布,白宫将开始面试接替鲍威尔的美联储主席候选人。鲍威尔的现任期将于2026年5月届满,尽管频繁面临来自特朗普的政治压力,他在公众场合多次重申将完成自己的任期。华尔街传闻称,美联储理事沃勒有望在鲍威尔2026年任期结束后接替担任美联储主席,而他本周发表的观点与部分联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)成员存在分歧。

  沃勒在周一表示,如果美国总统重新实施4月2日公布的关税措施,那么美联储将不得不迅速进行一系列“坏消息式”的降息操作。沃勒警告称,如果特朗普在暂停期结束后全面施加关税,美国经济增长将“几乎停滞”,失业率也将从当前的4.2%大幅攀升至明年的5%。他还指出,虽然短期内通胀可能飙升至5%,但价格压力的上行趋势可能只是暂时的,这将为美联储降息以对冲经济放缓的影响打开空间。

  沃勒表示:“尽管我预计关税引发的通胀效应只是暂时的,但它们对产出和就业的负面影响可能会更持久,并且成为制定货币政策立场时必须考虑的重要因素。若经济放缓程度严重,甚至触及衰退边缘,那么我会倾向于比此前预期更早、更大幅度地下调政策利率。”

  沃勒对失业上升的判断也与纽约联储周一公布的消费者信心调查结果一致。该调查显示,目前有44%的美国民众预计未来一年失业率会上升,为疫情以来的最高水平,且自特朗普上任以来,该比例已上升10个百分点。

  其他FOMC成员多主张“观望”态度。他们表示,在硬数据中看到实际放缓迹象之前,不会贸然调整利率。鲍威尔目前也持有同样的看法。

  自2025年初以来,美联储一直将利率维持在4.25%-4.5%区间。市场目前预计美联储将在2025年进行三次降息,首次将于6月开始。根据4月16日的CME“美联储观察工具”,美联储5月维持利率不变的概率为81.4%,6月降息25个基点的概率为60.1%。

  另外,多家投行近期增加了对美联储今年降息的预期,最新做出修改的是德银,该行现在预计美联储将在12月降息25个基点,此前预计2025年不降息,另外还预计美联储将在2026年第一季度再降息两次25个基点,将终端利率降至3.5%-3.75%。

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