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Deprecated: strpos(): Non-string needles will be interpreted as strings in the future. Use an explicit chr() call to preserve the current behavior in /www/wwwroot/4-16.com/label.php on line 82
勇闯基地1-尽享激情四溢的极致体验,打破常规,释放你的热情!
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勇闯基地1-尽享激情四溢的极致体验,打破常规,释放你的热情!

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摘要

H20贸易受限,英伟达市值一夜“蒸发”近1900亿美元。实际上,美国多次针对半导体领域出台大规模出口管制措施。半导体细分产业众多,哪些环节更加受益于关税背景下自主创新逻辑?

投资要点

①H20贸易受限英伟达市值一夜“蒸发”近1900亿美元

②关税等政策或进一步催生设备和芯片自主可控

③半导体产业链哪些环节空间大?

H20贸易受限英伟达市值一夜“蒸发”近1900亿美元

经过多轮的市场传言猜测与情绪反转,美国政府最终对英伟达的H20芯片升级了出口管制。

据媒体近日报道,英伟达当地时间15日发布8-K文件称,公司日前收到美国政府通知,H20芯片和达到H20内存带宽、互连带宽等的芯片向中国等国家和地区出口需要获得许可证。英伟达预计,第一季度业绩中,与H20产品相关的库存、采购承诺及相关准备金费用将高达约55亿美元。

在此背景下,投资机构已经下调英伟达目标价。同时,当地时间4月16日,英伟达放量下跌6.87%,一夜总市值“蒸发”近1900亿美元。

这已经不是第一次美国政府限制英伟达芯片出口。

万联证券指出,早在2022年8月,美国政府就向英伟达下达通知,要求对A100、H100进行新的出口管制许可,而该管制许可导致后续实际影响是A100、H100以及更高端芯片在中国的禁售。此次美国政府对H20进行许可证管理,表明贸易管制力度加大,我们认为H20在中国市场的销售或将面临较大限制。同时,英伟达预计第一季度业绩包括与H20产品相关的库存、采购承诺及相关储备费用约55亿美元,贸易管制或导致英伟达在中国市场份额有所流失,国内AI芯片厂商有望承接更多市场份额。

除了限制英伟达部分芯片出口外,2022年以来,美国多次针对半导体领域出台大规模出口管制措施。据证券时报梳理:

2022年10月限制先进制程下的高算力、人工智能芯片出口;

2023年10月,对先进计算芯片和半导体制造设备等物项收紧管制措施;

2024年12月,对24种半导体制造设备和3种关键软件工具实施出口限制。

近期,美国对多个国家和地区加征所谓“对等关税”,全球半导体产业的进出口将受到影响,高度全球化的半导体供应链面临重构风险。

万联证券进一步指出,关税博弈未定,全球贸易摩擦或加剧半导体产业国产化进程有望进一步加速,国产算力亦迎来发展机遇。建议关注:(1)半导体自主可控逻辑加强,关注先进制程突破带来的国产份额提升,以及半导体行业各细分领域的龙头企业;(2)H20贸易管制力度加大,或推动国内AI芯片厂商份额提升,关注国内AI芯片龙头企业;(3)由于国产芯片与英伟达芯片在单卡性能方面仍有一定差距,需通过超节点部署弥补整体算力水平,对互联组件、功耗控制等提出更高要求,有望提升光模块、液冷等细分领域需求。

关税等政策或进一步催生设备和芯片自主可控

从产业发展状况来看,中国已连续多年成为全球最大的半导体消费市场,占据全球市场份额近三分之一。

据报道,根据美国半导体行业协会数据,2016至2024年,我国半导体产业销售额稳步上升,2021年达到历史巅峰,接近1900亿美元,2022至2024年持续超过1800亿美元(2023年因行业低迷除外)。从全球看,中国半导体产业对全球贡献度维持三成左右,2021年创历史新高,接近35%;2024年为29.45%,较上一年小幅上升。

东莞证券表示,美国对华科技封锁倒逼自主可控,叠加贸易摩擦推升进口成本,有助于加速相关领域的国产化进程。以半导体设备为例,应用材料、泛林半导体等企业在全球半导体设备制造领域占有重要地位,我国当前自给率相对较低,未来国产化进程有望加速。

据证券时报,中国半导体产业凭借自身产业基础,以及政策支持、周期反转、增量创新等因素驱动,在自主可控之路上展现独特竞争力,进口依赖度呈下降态势。

据海关总署数据,中国集成电路进出口贸易持续向好,其中集成电路出口额持续增长,2019年起出口额持续超过千亿美元。2024年迎来重要转折点,芯片成为中国第一大出口商品,出口金额折合人民币约1.2万亿元。

与此同时,我国集成电路进口金额虽然仍呈现增长趋势,但增速放缓。自2019至2024年,我国集成电路进口金额复合增速为4.77%,较2013至2018年的复合增速下降1.4个百分点。以集成电路进出口贸易比值来看(进口金额/出口金额),该比值自2018年以来逐年下降,2024年该比值为2.42倍,较2007年峰值下降超一半。

从半导体设备不同地区的进口金额来看,我国半导体设备对单一地区的依赖度正在下降,进口地区逐渐多元化。

数据显示,2024年,来自美国的进口金额占比低于20%,较2021年下降超1.6个百分点;来自日本的进口金额占比约23%,较2021年下降超1个百分点;来自韩国的进口金额占比下降近3.5个百分点;而来自新加坡、马来西亚的进口金额占比,较2021年均上升超3.5个百分点。

万联证券表示,关税博弈背景下,全球贸易摩擦或加剧,半导体产业链供应链自主可控的重要性及必要性愈发显著。由于贸易摩擦成本提升,本土芯片企业设计、代工制造、封装等环节更具备成本优势,有望重塑部分细分环节贸易格局,进一步提升自主可控份额。

申港证券认为,中国企业从美国进口集成电路产品、半导体设备及零部件或面临一定关税压力。从具体产品看,中国芯片产品进出口结构类似,主要为处理器及控制器、存储器、模拟/功率半导体,对美进口加征关税或将推高国内部分PC厂商、服务器厂商的采购成本,加快国产CPU及MCU产品的自主替代。另外,我国半导体设备及零部件的进口以前道制造设备为主,从美国进口的比例达12.7%,因此关税增加或将影响部分设备采购成本。2024年我国半导体设备进口金额超过420亿元,进口关税增加预计将推动市场份额更多向国产设备厂商转移,加快设备的国产化进程。

中信证券表示,中国半导体行业的内需市场和自主可控成为明确的发展方向。中原证券等机构也认为,“对等关税”政策将对全球贸易格局变化产生重要影响,国内半导体产业自主可控要求再次提升,且进程有望加速推进。

半导体产业链哪些环节国产化空间大?

半导体细分产业众多,哪些环节更加受益于关税背景下自主创新逻辑?

首先,模拟芯片迎来广阔市场空间。目前,全球前两大模拟芯片企业TI与ADI均为美国厂商,据测算中国区销售额可能超过23亿美元,这至少是本土厂商的约四倍以上,即模拟芯片国内市场需求远高于国产厂商供给量。TI与ADI主要晶圆生产均在美国本土,因此加征关税后其产品在中国的价格会显著上涨,而国内模拟芯片厂商产品价格竞争力增长,应用领域拓宽,迎来替代海外市场广阔机遇。

与此同时,作为芯片的底座,国产设备、材料、零部件进入自主可控历史性窗口期。半导体设备方面,其仍具有较高集中性,2024年全球前五大设备厂商占全球市场份额超85%,但当前国产设备厂商已处于突破替代的加速期,北方华创近期推出首款离子注入机,技术对标国际竞品;新凯来近期发布31款高端装备,完成几乎全产业链覆盖。半导体材料方面,我国已具备较好的国产化基础,在部分细分领域已跻身全球第一梯队,如江丰电子的高纯度溅射靶材市占率位列全球第二。但同时我国在光刻胶、电子特气、前驱体等高端材料领域仍存在结构性短板。截至2024年,中国主要晶圆制造材料国产化率仍普遍在40%以下,光刻胶仅13%。而在关税政策影响下,我国在高端材料领域的国产化突破也势必加速推进。半导体零部件方面,其常年被美日欧高度垄断,阀门、泵类、密封圈基本依赖进口。而当前,我国企业已在部分零部件细分赛道相继取得突破,半导体零部件已进入了产品拓展、客户导入的快车道,该趋势也必将在关税紧张格局下进一步深化。

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