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伴随A股上市公司年报陆续披露,券商分析师们纷纷调整个股评级。数据显示,4月以来,已有20只个股获券商上调评级,主要覆盖科技、消费两大核心领域,业绩增长、公司及行业发展前景广阔是券商调增评级的主要原因。

券商调整个股评级的背后,一定程度上展现出机构对相关行业未来走势的预期。在机构人士看来,市场接下来或将开启防御与顺周期风格的轮动,消费、科技等领域细分行业中的核心资产有望受益。

科技、消费板块受券商追捧

根据统计,4月获券商调高评级的个股包括妙可蓝多、三只松鼠、博腾股份、浪潮信息、微电生理、森马服饰、峰岹科技、金盘科技、珠海冠宇、均胜电子、新城控股、呈和科技、北方稀土、一致魔芋、亚太股份、福斯特、中国中免、华纬科技、我爱我家、大金重工。其中,消费、科技两大板块个股数量较多。

AI识股

从评级报告分析,业绩增长是消费股受券商青睐的直接原因。例如,中信证券对三只松鼠的评级由“增持”上调至“买入”,核心逻辑在于公司2024年营收顺利达成重回百亿目标,2025年全年电商渠道有望继续稳健增长,饮料等新日销品类将推动线下分销渠道收入高增。2024年,三只松鼠实现营收106.22亿元,同比增长49.30%;实现归母净利润4.08亿元,同比增长85.51%。

对科技股而言,看好行业及公司发展前景,是券商上调评级的主要原因。以浪潮信息为例,西部证券对其评级从“增持”上调至“买入”,关键理由是公司2024年业绩高速增长,合同负债体现出下游旺盛需求。西部证券表示,浪潮信息公司合同负债等指标表明下游客户正在加大数据中心基础设施领域的投入,公司有望获得确定性较高、弹性较大的增长。2024年,浪潮信息营业收入、归母净利润同比分别增长74.24%和28.55%。

从行业角度看,算力需求有望驱动国内智算规模持续扩增。根据国际数据公司(IDC)与浪潮信息联合发布的《2025年中国人工智能计算力发展评估报告》的测算,2025年中国智能算力规模将达到1037.3EFLOPS,较2024年增长43%;2025年中国人工智能算力市场规模将达到259亿美元,较2024年增长36.2%。

业绩承压拖累评级

除上述19只获券商上调评级的个股外,4月还有浙江鼎力、中信银行、贵州茅台、锦江酒店、粤电力a等十余只个股被券商下调了股票评级。

AI识股

作为A股“股王”的贵州茅台罕见地被中国银河证券下调评级至“谨慎推荐”。中国银河证券在出具的评级报告中表示,2024年贵州茅台稳健达成整体业绩目标,但增长动能有所变化:2024年茅台酒放量较多,对价格造成压力;需求疲弱下,公司增长空间在收窄。

因业绩表现疲软,国内最大规模连锁酒店集团——锦江酒店被野村东方国际下调评级,从“增持”调整为“中性”,目标价也从31元/股下调至24.6元/股。年报数据显示,2024年锦江酒店实现营收140.63亿元,同比下降4%;实现归母净利润9.11亿元,同比降幅为9.06%。

机构预计后市将演绎消费与科技主线

券商对个股评级调整的背后,除了对单家上市公司业绩的分析与研判,一定程度上也折射出其对相关行业未来走势的判断与思考。

光大证券策略首席分析师张宇生称,当下,市场已逐步消化美国“对等关税”政策相关悲观预期,同时,国内扩大内需与促进消费的政策力度或将进一步加大,市场对国内经济基本面的担忧有望逐步缓解。市场在未来或将开启防御与顺周期风格的轮动,可关注消费方向,包括家用电器、食品饮料、社会服务、商贸零售等行业。

招商证券认为,关税冲击落地后,后续亟需扩内需政策发力,消费、民生方面或有更多的增量政策出台。中期来看,围绕内需政策发力和AI应用落地是今年主要方向,建议关注景气度改善或较高的电子、工程机械、乘用车、食品饮料等行业。

中信证券表示,A股短期的“筹码底”已经见到,4月至5月可能以科技主题型行情的交易机会为主,而基本面预期或在三季度稳定下来,届时消费、先进制造和周期当中的核心资产将明显占优。

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