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今天,国家统计局发布的3月70城房价数据再次印证了上海楼市的“神话”:新房价格环比上涨约0.7%,同比涨幅达约5.7%。

上海新房价格延续上涨态势,成为全国楼市结构性复苏的标杆。

在政策红利、供需调整与市场信心共振下,上海楼市正书写着“量价齐升”的新篇章。

图源:国家统计局

01

新房价格涨幅领跑,高端住宅成关键动力!

3月上海新房市场表现抢眼,多项指标创下近年新高。

据中原地产监测数据,3月份,上海新建商品住宅成交面积约68.3万平方米,环比增加约145.1%;新房均价约81321元/平方米,环比上涨约14.9%。

这一涨幅不仅领跑一线城市,更折射出市场供需结构的深层变化。

一方面,豪宅热销推高均价。

高端项目集中入市成为价格攀升的关键动力。黄浦区金陵华庭均价约18.9万元/㎡,开盘即“日光”,单日吸金92.34亿元;徐汇区能建·西岸誉府也实现当日清盘。

中指研究院统计显示,从成交的结构来看,今年一季度上海千万级房源成交占比提升至8%,核心区域大平层成交占比达12%。

另一方面,市场结构性分化仍在加剧。

数据显示,上海内环内新房均价突破12万元/㎡,而临港、金山等远郊项目以低价策略吸引刚需,均价同比下探3%-5%。

此外,克而瑞数据显示,市中心项目去化率普遍超80%,五大新城则多在四成以下。

02

多重因素推动!未来上海楼市走向,定了!

说到底,上海新房市场的量价齐升,是多重因素叠加的结果。

首先是政策效应叠加。

自2024年“沪九条”“沪七条”新政实施以来,购房需求持续释放。

与此同时,首套房公积金利率降至2.85%,叠加灵活还款方式,显著降低刚需群体入市门槛。

对此,上海市房地产交易中心副主任阮骏麒指出,政策效应仍处释放阶段,市场回稳态势有望延续。

其次,土地市场高热传导。

一季度上海土拍溢价率普遍超30%,北蔡楔形绿地地块楼板价突破7万元/㎡,地价攀升倒逼房企聚焦高端产品。

据不完全统计,2025年即将入市的新房中,有54个为单价10万+的高端盘。

最后,是置换链条被激活。

数据显示,3月上海二手房网签2.93万套,创2022年以来同期新高。

中原地产数据显示,陆家嘴、徐汇滨江等区域次新房成交周期缩短,形成“卖旧买新”的良性循环。

4月的上海楼市或将延续“小阳春”态势,克而瑞预测,核心区高位震荡与远郊弱复苏并存的格局将延续。

但长期来看,上海楼市的库存压力不容忽视,部分郊区项目面临滞销。

写在最后:

如今的上海楼市正从“普涨时代”迈入“K型分化”——核心资产持续冲高,普通住宅回归居住本质。

对购房者而言,“闭眼买房”的时代早已终结:

改善客可紧盯内环倒挂盘;刚需不妨捡漏远郊降价次新,金山、奉贤的2万+地铁盘性价比凸显。

对此,你怎么看?

(转自:上海楼市情报)

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