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新一期普通型人身险产品预定利率研究值出炉。

4月21日,中国保险行业协会组织召开人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会2025年一季度例会,就宏观经济形势、市场利率走势和行业发展情况进行研究。与会专家认为,当前普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为2.13%。

《国际金融报》记者注意到,此次研究值较一季度下降21个基点。按照动态调节机制要求,若下季度公布的研究值仍低于2.25%,则普通型人身险产品预定利率最高值将下调。考虑到新老产品切换有两个月的缓冲期,业内普遍预计,最快今年9月将迎来预定利率调整期。

差值首次超过25个基点

所谓预定利率,指的是保险公司在产品定价时,根据公司对未来资金运用收益率的预测而为保单假设的年收益率。通俗地说,就是保险公司承诺给消费者的投资回报率。

2024年8月,金融监管总局印发《关于健全人身保险产品定价机制的通知》,首次提出“建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制”。

今年1月10日,金融监管总局向各人身险公司下发《关于建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制有关事项的通知》(下称《通知》),进一步落实预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制,引导公司强化资产负债联动,科学审慎定价。

根据《通知》,保险行业协会定期组织人身保险业责任准备金评估利率专家咨询委员会成员召开会议,结合5年期以上贷款市场报价利率(LPR)、5年期定期存款利率、10年期国债收益率等市场利率变化和行业资产负债管理情况,研究人身保险产品预定利率有关事项,每季度发布预定利率研究值。

按照调节机制要求,预定利率最高值取0.25%的整倍数。当保险公司在售普通型人身保险产品预定利率最高值连续两个季度比预定利率研究值高25个基点及以上时,要及时下调新产品预定利率最高值,并在2个月内平稳做好新老产品切换工作。

当保险公司在售普通型人身保险产品预定利率最高值连续2个季度比预定利率研究值低25个基点及以上时,可以适当上调新产品预定利率最高值,调整后的预定利率最高值原则上不得超过预定利率研究值。

在调整普通型人身保险产品预定利率最高值的同时,要按照一定的差值,合理调整分红型人身保险和万能型人身保险预定利率最高值。

目前,普通型人身保险产品预定利率上限为2.5%。与保险行业协会在今年1月公布的预定利率研究值2.34%相比,未超过25个基点;与最新公布的预定利率研究值2.13%相比,已超过25个基点。

也就是说,如果下季度公布的研究值继续低于2.25%,则普通型人身险产品预定利率上限将下调;如果下季度公布的研究值高于2.25%,预定利率仍可不下调。

谈及下调幅度,国金证券非银金融首席分析师舒思勤指出,理论上至少需要下调25个基点。但考虑到利率延续低位下行,预计三季度研究值也很难向上突破2.25%,若此次预定利率下调至2.25%则意味着四季度还需再次下调,因此预计传统险预定利率或直接降至2%。

加快发展浮动收益型产品

截至4月21日,10年期国债收益率为1.67%,最新5年期以上LPR为3.6%,国有大行5年期定期存款利率跌破2%。低利率环境下,保险公司仍面临较大资负匹配压力。

“保险行业协会针对市场利率变化发布新一期预定利率研究值,为行业调整人身险产品定价提供了重要的参考指引。”国泰海通非银首席分析师刘欣琦指出,新一期预定利率研究值公布背景下,保险公司未来调整人身险预定利率最高值的压力提升,预计将稳步推动新产品切换,利好负债成本压降。

刘欣琦表示,基于今年4月以来银行3年期、5年期定存利率普遍跌破2%,预计储蓄险产品收益率仍然具备竞争力,短期销售波动相对有限。

中信建投证券非银金融与前瞻研究首席分析师赵然也指出,预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动态调整机制,可以提升预定利率调整的及时性,建立防范化解利差损风险的长效机制。长期来看,采取“保底+浮动”收益模式的分红险产品有望成为人身险公司重点发力方向,形成保险公司与客户“双赢”的业务模式。

事实上,加快浮动收益型产品发展转型,已经成为多数人身险公司的共同选择。

中国人寿总裁利明光表示,今年以来,公司持续推动产品和业务多元发展,包括形态多元、期限多元和成本多元。尤其是大力推动浮动收益型产品发展,不断提升公司服务客户的能力。截至目前,公司业务形态进一步丰富,浮动类型产品和业务占比快速提升,转型成功。

“从一季度的市场来看,分红险是有空间的,也有一部分客户认可。”新华保险总裁、首席财务官龚兴峰透露,二季度会进一步加大分红险的销售力度,同时加强销售队伍技能的培训和转变,确保分红险转型能够成功。2025年,新华保险计划分红型产品在整个业务盘子里新单保费不低于30%。

中国平安联席首席执行官郭晓涛表示,从全行业来看,在预定利率下降的背景下,分红险的占比将持续增加,分红险的利润边际也将进一步升高。此前预计,分红险会占行业整体销售的50%以上。从现在的发展情况来看,基本上符合预期。

其他多家保险公司也表示,将密切关注宏观经济形势和预定利率研究值走势,及时跟进市场利率变化,结合行业发展和自身经营情况,研究调整产品定价,不断提升负债质量。

  波音股价一度上涨2.3%,此前该公司同意以105.5亿美元现金向ThomaBravo出售部分数字航空解决方案业务,包括Jeppesen、ForeFlight、AerData和OzRunways。

  波音将保留核心数字能力,预计交易将在2025年底前完成。

  “这笔交易是我们聚焦核心业务、补充资产负债表、优先考虑投资级信用评级战略的的重要组成部分,”首席执行官KellyOrtberg表示。

  花旗担任波音的独家财务顾问。

  美国八个州的财务官员联合致信特斯拉董事会,对该公司目前的发展方向以及马斯克对公司所面临挑战的关注度提出质疑。

  加利福尼亚、伊利诺伊和其他六个州负责监管基金和投资事务的官员提及特斯拉下跌的股价、不及预期的第一季度交付数据,以及用特斯拉换其他品牌汽车的车主数量激增等担忧。

  “与此同时,首席执行官马斯克仍在多家公司之间分散精力,还高调担任联邦政府顾问一职,”这些财务官员写道,“这些外部事务令人严重怀疑特斯拉领导层是否真正在全力应对公司的核心问题。”

  这封公开信是与倡导团体“负责任增长的美国人”(AmericansforResponsibleGrowth)合作起草的,进一步加剧了特斯拉及马斯克面临的舆论压力。该公司将于周二收盘后发布第一财季财报。

  加利福尼亚州的MaliaCohen、伊利诺伊州的MichaelFrerichs以及另外六位财务官员警告称如果特斯拉继续表现不佳,则将“波及地区经济”并动摇公众对能源转型的信心。

  尽管马斯克在2021年将特斯拉总部从硅谷搬到了奥斯汀,但加州仍然是该公司多个制造与工程设施的所在地。华盛顿、马萨诸塞、科罗拉多和康涅狄格等签署了这封信的财务官员所在州均采纳了加州推动电动车销售的相关标准。

  在致特斯拉董事会主席RobynDenholm的信中,上述财务官员要求董事会澄清如何确保马斯克及其领导团队“投入足够的时间和精力来解决近期的业绩问题”。几位州政府官员还就公司高管薪酬政策以及恢复投资者信心的举措提出质询。

  “董事会的作用在当下尤为关键——它需要发挥强有力的监督职能,坚持受托人责任标准,并确保领导层始终与公司的长期最佳利益保持一致,”财务官员写道,“作为公共事务官员,只有在风险显而易见且不容忽视时,我们才会慎重地提出这些担忧。”

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