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作者/  IT时报记者 王昕

编辑/ 王昕 孙妍

4月13日沈阳车展上,一辆黑色问界M7Pro突然从展位上冲出,造成一人受伤、4台展车受损,离奇的事故画面在互联网上立刻引发了病毒式传播。再联想起前些日子的“小米汽车事件”,让我这个坚定的“技术至上派”也动摇了,智能技术在汽车行业的应用,到底多久才能到达那个完全无人驾驶的乌托邦。

我一直坚信,未来无人驾驶汽车的安全性会远超当前的人类驾驶员,道路事故率会因此大大降低。当技术演绎到极致,超强的传感器和雷达可以捕捉到哪怕一只飞过的苍蝇和蚊子,甚至车子硬是想要撞人,都将是一件很难的事情……

全自动无人驾驶是智能驾驶技术演进的美妙终局。

在《汽车驾驶自动化分级(GB/T40429-2021)》国家标准中,对L5级完全自动驾驶的核心定义是:完全无人驾驶,能够在任何可行驶条件下自主执行所有动态驾驶任务,并超越人类驾驶员的能力。同时,系统能够在所有驾驶环境下安全运行,用户不再需要参与任何驾驶决策,系统完全代替人类驾驶员。

那么全自动驾驶何时才能实现呢?当前,华为、小鹏、蔚来、理想、岚图等主流车企均宣布年内推出具备L3级功能的车型。北汽、广汽、小鹏等则均宣布将于近两年内推出L4级别自动驾驶汽车。

至于智驾进化的“终点”,“激进派”马斯克称,再等2个月就行了!特斯拉将于2025年6月在美国奥斯汀推出无监管全自动驾驶技术(FSD)。除了这个“疯子”以外,大多数行业机构和专家的预测都认为,我国实现完全自动驾驶商用的时间会在2030年前后。

当人类在汽车上堆积出越来越高的技术浓度时,从大量智驾用户的使用体验来看,至少看上去,我们离完全自动驾驶已经很近,在绝大部分场景中,主流智驾平台的表现都可圈可点。但从99%到100%的那层窗户纸要远比想象中更难捅破,人类司机的驾驶意图和一些潜移默化的习惯模式常常是技术模仿不来的。

波士顿咨询曾在一份报告中指出,智能驾驶是“自汽车发明以来影响最为深远的技术”,智能汽车未来可以减少90%的道路交通事故,但就目前来说,智驾并非完全如想象中那么可靠。

当前,智驾技术还在轰轰烈烈地演进。2024年,车企和供应商集体卷入了一场狂热的“端到端”智驾竞赛。“端到端”就是将所有传感器数据以及动力、地图信息等输入车端模型,然后输出更优的驾驶轨迹。其特点是,上限高、下限低,在常规场景下,它能够从容驾驶,提供近乎完美的驾驶体验,但在非常规极端场景下,这种从容很可能变成冒失,并带来巨大安全风险。

触目惊心的安全事故,已经让业界意识到“端到端”的局限性,如鲁棒性(系统稳定性)差等,并开始研究多模态大模型的应用。例如,由视觉语言多模态大模型充当驾驶决策的“大脑”,让智驾越来越类人,越来越从感知到认知。

有专家认为,可以通过搭建极强大的训练模型虚拟环境,即“世界模型”(WorldModel,指智能体对现实环境的内部模拟和预测能力),能确保车辆不再发生由系统错误产生的问题和事故。

但即便算法、算力和数据三大要素齐聚,自动驾驶向终极彼岸的演进难度大到足以让从业者痛苦绝望。

过去,人类为自己的驾驶行为负责;未来,技术为人类的行车安全担责。人类驾驶员为自己的酒驾、瞌睡、莽撞承担责任,技术如何为自己的过热、死机、卡顿辩解呢?更深一层的诘问是,技术真的可以为人类担责吗?在法律上,到底谁来为技术背书?这背后是技术、法律、伦理的巨大挑战,许许多多问题目前尚无定论。

2024年7月20日,全球经历了黑暗的一天。航空公司、医院、零售商以及其他各类企业纷纷停摆。航班取消、医院系统瘫痪、银行客户无法交易,而这一切都只是因为——微软宕机了。

Windows操作系统是一个已经运行了40年、超级成熟的数字系统,历经无数次迭代、升级、优化、完善,但其依然会宕机。这是不是意味着,即便再成熟的智驾系统也客观存在宕机的可能性,由于车联网的存在,其潜在风险远远不局限于某一辆车,一个小问题、漏洞都可能引发连锁反应,后果不堪设想。

“伤不起”是智驾系统的命门。全球应用最广泛和成熟的Windows系统至今仍可能“蓝屏”,但智驾系统一秒钟都不能“开小差”。

同时,智驾系统的本质是数字设备。现在所有运行中的数字设备都无法回避性能、可靠性、老化等问题,手机、PC时间用久了,性能会变差,也就是说安全性相应变差,自打新车买回家的那一刻起,智驾系统的性能和可靠性就开始持续老化,这可不是运行两遍“手机加速”“电脑加速”那么简单的事,智驾系统的任何不确定性都人命关天。

当前我们越来越依赖计算机和网络服务来进行日常活动,数字系统从工作到个人生活几乎无所不在。但这种依赖性也意味着,当数字系统出现问题时,影响的范围和严重程度都可能非常大,大到人们承担不起。

地平线副总裁兼首席架构师苏箐的话很有启发:“自动驾驶代表了物理世界与人类交互的第一个半规则、半非规则的场景,蕴含着极高的研究与发展价值。”

业界还需在技术理性、商业伦理与法律底线间激烈、艰难地探索出一条新路。回归安全是本质,但人类将学着接受智能系统哪怕万亿分之一的、极低的出错概率和相应后果,然后孕育出崭新的人、机共处方式,并从智驾领域逐渐扩展到未来的各行各业中。

排版/ 季嘉颖

图片/ 通义千问 网络 

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