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  财联社4月15日讯(编辑牛占林)在美国政府发动全面贸易战之后,全球金融市场风雨飘摇,但未曾想到的是,俄罗斯卢布成为了今年全球表现最佳的货币,涨幅甚至远远超过了黄金这一传统避险资产。

  数据显示,今年迄今,俄罗斯卢布兑美元在场外交易中上涨了38%。美元因美国总统特朗普不断升级的关税战而面临巨大压力,卢布却因许多俄罗斯独有的因素而受到支撑,其中包括创纪录的高利率。

  其他新兴市场货币通常会遇到一个问题:当全球经济不稳定或者投资者觉得风险太大时,很多外国投资者会把钱从这些国家撤走,但卢布却没有资金外流压力。

  T-Investments的经济学家SofyaDonets表示:“资本管制在很大程度上保护了俄罗斯免受这种情况的影响,而高借贷成本也在支撑卢布汇率。”

  尽管西方国家的一系列制裁措施并未取消,但俄罗斯国内的一些政策和经济情况也在帮助卢布升值。这一状况对于控制通胀而言无疑是一个好消息,但在国家大规模支出用于军事需求和社会项目之际,这可能会降低能源收入。

  持续的通胀迫使俄罗斯央行维持一种极其强硬的货币政策立场——目前基准利率为21%,已连续几个月保持不变,这抑制了对进口商品的需求,进而也减少了对外币的需求。与此同时,出口商被要求在本地市场上出售部分外汇收入,这进一步推动了卢布的升值。

  当然,美国对俄罗斯政策的缓和迹象重新激发了卢布在套利交易中的吸引力。Istar资本研究与投资组合管理主管IskanderLutsko表示,尽管制裁风险仍然存在,外国投资者仍在转向那些与俄罗斯保持良好关系的国家,以获取高收益的卢布资产。

  Lutsko补充说,除此之外,俄罗斯企业渴望利用成本低得多的人民币贷款,为成本高昂的本币债务进行再融资,这推动了更多的外币兑换成卢布。

  与此同时,美元指数跌至六个月低点,因为特朗普在关税政策上的最新反复无常,加剧了投资者对美国资产的不安情绪,并削弱了美元和美国国债仍然是终极无风险避险资产的信心。

  由于预期未来会有更多的动荡和不确定性,交易者们纷纷抛售美元资产,转而买入黄金。这种贵金属自今年年初以来已经上涨了23%,达到历史新高。

  经济学家指出,卢布走强是多方面的,首先,普京和特朗普关系解冻提振了人们对俄罗斯市场的信心;其次,紧缩的货币政策正在冷却企业和消费者对进口的需求;第三,俄罗斯政府通过出售其主权财富基金中的硬通货来保护经济免受油价下跌的影响。

  还有戏剧性的一点是,俄罗斯将免受特朗普关税政策的影响,因为双方早就切断了几乎所有贸易往来。

  值得注意的是,自2024年6月13日起,受制裁影响,美元在莫斯科交易所的交易暂停,这使得相关交易活动转移到了场外市场。这增加了价格发现的复杂性,并导致了国内价格与国际价格之间出现了差距。

  俄罗斯央行表示,卢布升值可能是由于地缘政治形势改善,投资者对俄罗斯资产重新产生兴趣所致。报告还称,俄罗斯相对较高的基准利率可能也是一个因素。

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