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  4月16日,现货黄金快速拉升,盘中升破3270美元/盎司关口,再创历史新高,截至发稿时报价3270.52美元/盎司,日内涨幅超1.2%。

  与此同时,国内品牌金饰价格仍维持在历史高位。周生生足金饰品价格突破千元每克,报价来到1007元/克;周大福和周六福的足金饰品价格均为990元/克。

  然而,黄金价格的剧烈波动仍需引起注意。以更能反映市场情绪的黄金期货为例,4月3日COMEX黄金期货冲至3196美元/盎司后,曾连续3天下跌,最低破2970美元,2天跌去226美元。但随后又快速反弹,4月11日突破3200美元,3天涨超200美元。

  面对黄金价格的再度突破,市场对其未来是否会重演“V型”走势格外关注。国是金融改革智库首席专家刘胜军向南财快讯记者分析,此前黄金价格的剧烈波动主要源于市场观点的分歧。当黄金价格在短时间内快速上涨后,部分投资者会选择获利了结,这种现象属于市场正常表现。

  “但从长远来看,受国际局势的复杂性以及美国政策不确定性的影响,市场避险需求依然强劲,各国央行尤其是中国央行的持续购金行为也在支撑黄金价格。黄金价格涨势远没有结束,未来四年内仍有较大涨幅空间,”刘胜军分析认为。

  从央行购金数据来看,2022年,全球央行净购买1082吨黄金,相较于此前的450吨大幅提升,创下历史最高。2023年,再度净购买1037.4吨,接近全年黄金供应量的20%。

  截至2024年3月,中国央行黄金储备为7274万盎司,环比继续上升16万盎司。值得注意的是,这已经是中国央行连续第17个月增加,累计增持高达1010万盎司,约合286吨。

  在金价迭创新高的背景下,多家华尔街大行仍进一步上调了对黄金的目标价。

  高盛在最新报告中将2025年黄金目标价从此前的每盎司3300美元上调至3700美元,上调幅度高达12%,也是该机构年内最激进的一次上调动作。瑞银预计,由于全球贸易和地缘政治背景的变化增强了避险资产的配置需求,该行分析师JoniTeves预计,金价到2025年12月将达到每盎司3500美元。

  德银的预测则显示,到2025年底,黄金价格将达到3350美元/盎司;如果央行需求在2025年底前保持高位但随后回落至2011—2021年的常态,2026年黄金平均价格可能为3500美元/盎司;如果高需求持续到2026年底,则2026年平均价格可能达到3900美元/盎司。

  (声明:文章内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作,风险自担。)

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