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  今年以来,房地产市场延续止跌回稳趋势。

  从楼市成交来看,克而瑞研究中心根据自然资源部和国家统计局数据估算,一季度,全国一二手房成交总量同比增长10%,其中二手房率先大幅增长34.7%。

  从土地市场来看,据中指研究院统计,1—4月,22个重点城市月度平均溢价率均在20%左右。4月土拍热度不减,多地相继拍出高溢价地块,其中,4月22日,杭州两宗地溢价率分别达到59.4%、74.4%。

  业内人士认为,一季度房地产市场正式迎来交易规模的企稳信号,尽管4月新房成交增长动能转弱,但二季度或将延续止跌企稳态势。核心城市优质地块土拍竞争激烈,预计这些项目未来将多开发为改善型产品,有助于促进改善性住房需求释放,推动房地产市场止跌回稳。 

  一二手房成交总量同比增长10%

  近日,自然资源部公布的数据显示,一季度,全国办理存量商品房转移登记164.6万件,同比增长34.7%。克而瑞研究中心指出,这是官方公开披露的全国二手房交易规模数据。

  而国家统计局的数据显示,1—3月份,全国新建商品房销售面积21869万平方米,同比下降3%。克而瑞研究中心据此估算,一季度全国商品房成交大约219万套。

  克而瑞研究中心认为,相比一季度一手房的持续筑底而言,二手房市场先一步迎来大幅上涨,并拉动一季度一二手房成交总量达到383万套,同比增长10%。2025年初房地产市场也正式迎来了交易规模的企稳信号。

  从4月的成交情况来看,据克而瑞研究中心监测,重点26城4月上半月成交面积达317.17万平方米,环比下降14%,与去年同期基本持平。同比来看,一线城市率先回稳,4月上半月成交量较去年同期增长32%;二线和三四线城市则同比分别下降10%和8%,更多是局部复苏。

  对于未来市场走势,克而瑞研究中心认为,今年以来楼市处于止跌回稳通道中,2月市场止跌企稳,3月传统营销旺季来临新房成交达到年度高点,而4月新房成交增长动能转弱,全月成交预计将环比回落。不过由于去年基数较低,同比或延续持平,二季度或将延续止跌企稳态势。

  重点城市土拍溢价率持续保持20%左右

  不仅楼市成交企稳,土地市场热度也不断升温。

  据中指研究院统计,1—4月,22个重点城市月度平均溢价率均在20%左右。4月土拍热度不减,北京、杭州、成都、苏州、重庆、南京相继拍出高溢价地块,其中,4月22日,杭州萧山区两宗地溢价率分别为59.4%、74.4%;4月1日,杭州出让的8宗地中有4宗溢价率超50%;4月7日,重庆渝北区新牌坊地块溢价率达38.9%;4月2日,苏州姑苏区地块以溢价率23.8%成交。

  同时,在核心城市土拍带动下,土地出让金同比增长显著,今年截至4月22日,300城住宅用地出让金同比增长20.1%。

  今年以来,房企投资聚焦核心城市,央国企资金优势凸显。据中指研究院统计,今年截至4月22日,22个重点城市溢价成交(溢价率>0)宅地中,央国企拿地金额占比达58%,民企拿地金额占比升至24%,主要是滨江一季度补仓力度较大,带动民企整体拿地占比提升。高溢价率地块来看,22个重点城市宅地溢价率在70%以上的地块中,央国企的占比达70%。

  从重点房企布局城市来看,北京、杭州、上海、成都等是房企要进驻或深耕城市。据中指研究院监测,一季度共8家房企拿地金额超百亿元,其中5家房企拿地最多的城市均为北京,2家房企在杭州拿地居首位,中海、建发在北京+杭州拿地金额占比分别达76%、65%。

  对于当前的土地市场,中指研究院指数研究部总经理曹晶晶认为,核心城市土拍升温传递出一个重要信号,即随着限价政策逐步退出,“政府保障基本住房需求、市场满足多层次多样化住房需求”的趋势正在加快形成,让商品住房回归商品属性也是近年来构建市场+保障的住房供应体系的应有之义。未来企业通过开发高品质改善型产品,有助于进一步撬动住房消费潜能释放,推动房地产市场止跌回稳。同时,也需看到,当前房地产市场仍处于修复阶段,房企普遍采取“聚焦核心城市”的投资策略,这一策略一定程度上导致核心城市土拍竞争加剧,也是多地土拍高溢价的重要原因,而除部分核心城市外,更多城市的土地市场短期仍面临压力。

  4月24日,周大福在港交所公告,截至2025年3月31日止三个月(2025财年第四季度)零售值同比下降11.6%。

  其中,中国内地的同店销售跌幅有所收窄。季内,内地直营店及加盟店的同店销售分别同比下降13.2%及8.7%。

  香港及澳门市场方面,同店销售跌幅与上一季度相若。同店销售同比减少22.5%,香港的同店销售下跌21.5%,而澳门则减少25.6%。

  公告提到,尽管宏观经济环境不佳及黄金价格高企影响了消费意愿,但公司在产品优化方面取得积极成效,尤其是在中国内地的同店销售跌幅有所收窄。(闫妍)

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