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柳州市(鹿寨县、三江侗族自治县、融安县、城中区、柳江区、融水苗族自治县、柳南区、鱼峰区、柳北区、柳城县)

  汇通财经APP讯——黄金价格(XAU/USD)周四亚洲交易时段一度飙升至历史新高,随后出现部分获利回吐。尽管美元从多年低点略有反弹,加之亚太市场风险偏好升温,但黄金下行空间依旧受限。

  全球投资者避险情绪仍然浓厚,因美国总统特朗普日前再度加码关税政策,尤其对亚洲国家加征高达145%的关税。

  美联储政策预期构筑金价支撑带

  尽管美国3月零售销售数据强劲增长1.4%,创两年多新高,美联储主席鲍威尔近日表示暂不倾向降息,担忧通胀压力。

  但市场仍预期美联储将在6月开启新一轮降息周期,并在年内降息至少三次,这种预期持续限制美元上行,为无息资产黄金提供坚实支撑。

  “市场仍倾向相信降息将至,尤其考虑到当前经济面临的贸易不确定性与全球增长疲软,”——分析平台Moomoo首席执行官MichaelMcCarthy

  技术面上,日线相对强弱指数(RSI)持续高于70,表明市场已进入“超买”区域。分析指出,金价在冲高至3,300美元/盎司后短期或出现整理或小幅回调,但整体上行趋势并未改变。

  若价格跌破3,300关键支撑位,才可能触发进一步的技术性回调。反之,回调过程中或将吸引更多“逢低买入”资金入场,继续推高金价。

  市场聚焦美国经济数据与美联储官员讲话

  当前市场关注焦点包括:美国每周初请失业金人数、费城联储制造业指数及住房市场数据等,此外,美联储官员的发言也可能为货币政策方向提供更多线索。

  “若经济数据偏弱,将强化市场对降息的定价,从而为黄金进一步上行打开空间。”——花旗银行G10利率主管DanielTobon

  编辑观点:

  在特朗普推行极端关税政策的大背景下,全球贸易局势骤然紧张,避险需求大幅提升,从而推动金价突破历史高点。尽管短期内技术面存在回调压力,但美联储潜在的政策转向与全球经济不确定性构成了金价的坚实支撑。

  未来金价若能站稳3,300上方并获得更多宏观数据支持,或将开启下一轮涨势。

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