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智通财经呼吸,施罗德投资环球无约束固定收益投资主管JulienHoudain指,过去两周的市场动荡可谓历历在目。即使整体宏观前景仍然存在不确定性,观察到部分资产已开始展现具吸引力的估值水平,为投资者带来潜在机会。鉴于近期经济与政策变化,将美国经济“硬着陆”的可能性上调至35%,但根据综合分析,经济“软着陆”仍是最有可能出现的情境,机率为55%。施罗德投资表示看好美国5年期国债,但对中长期美债持审慎态度。

目前市场局势依然高度不稳定,走向瞬息万变。分析这些政策对美国经济短期影响的最简单方式,是将其视为一种对消费者与企业课征的税负。目前这项“加税”措施约等同于国内生产总值(GDP)的0.6%,与经济低幅度增长甚至停滞相符,但尚未构成深度衰退的条件。尽管全球消费者将因关税面临更高成本,国际油价下跌将在某程度上提供缓解。尽管不足以完全抵销关税压力,但仍是一项正面因素。

施罗德投资表示,虽然目前的宏观环境似乎对经济前景不利,但更关注这些因素对市场估值的影响。在投资级别与高收益债券市场中,近期显著的市场波动与无差别式的抛售,已为这些资产类别创造了具吸引力的入市点。然而,审慎挑选仍是关键。

过去数周,美国10年期国债殖利率自3月底以来显著攀升(意味价格下跌)。在债券配置上,仍看好美国5年期国债,但对中长期美债持审慎态度,因其仍面临潜在风险。在欧元区债券方面,维持对其负面展望的观点,主因估值偏高,加上德国等区内核心国家的财政政策出现重大转向,可能对债市构成压力。从跨市场配置的角度出发,德国公债(Bunds)仍是目前“沽空”的主要策略标。

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  佐丹奴国际(00709)发布公告,于首个季度,集团销售额按固定汇率计算取得5.2%的显著增长,尽管面对不利的汇兑影响,但仍展现出强大的韧力,整体增长达3.7%。除东南亚外,主要市场均取得正面表现,其中海湾阿拉伯国家合作委员会地区取得按年15%的显著增长,部分原因是受惠于斋月期间时间差异。东南亚地区因印尼非佐丹奴品牌表现欠佳而面对挑战,集团正积极精简营运以解决这些问题。

  集团的线上业务表现出色,增幅达18.4%,主要得益于中国内地的系统改进。集团将实施进一步举措,扩大集团在全球范围内的电子商务能力,这与“超越界限”五年策略计划中概述的数位化战略重点一致。

  批发收入显著增长了23.6%,这得益于集团特许经营市场(尤其是菲律宾和缅甸)的强劲销售增长。

  正如之前在2024年全年业绩中所述,集团的目标仍然是实现3%至5%的收入增长。然而,近期全球贸易不稳定及全球金融市场波动,加上宏观经济及地缘政治紧张局势,均可能对消费需求造成不利影响。管理层致力于稳健的规划,并利用其“超越界限”五年策略计划下的策略性措施应付及处理这些挑战。

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