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热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端

  美国继续收紧AI芯片的出口管制。

  据上海证券报报道,当地时间4月15日,英伟达披露,其“特供”中国市场的AI芯片H20已经被美国政府列入出口管制,需要申请许可证方可出口。英伟达在文件中表示,美国政府已于当地时间4月9日通知英伟达,要求其向中国(包括香港和澳门)和D:5国家组,或总部或最终母公司位于该地区的企业,出口H20人工智能加速器和实现H20存储带宽、互连带宽或其组合的任何集成电路都需要获得许可证。英伟达表示,鉴于H20相关库存及订单等,公司将在2026财年第一季度(截至2025年4月27日)计提约55亿美元。

  受此消息影响,4月15日美股盘后交易中,英伟达股价一度下跌超过6%,AMD股价下跌超过7%,博通股价则下跌近4%。

  当前,英伟达面临的挑战之一就是出口管制。这些管制并不是现在才开始,而是逐年递增。

  近年来,随着美国商务部工业和安全局(BIS)每年都会推出新规,英伟达面临的不仅是单一出口许可证问题,更是一个系统性的市场准入限制与竞争格局变化。

  2024年12月,BIS连发多个出口管制的“强化版”新规,试图限制中国人工智能和先进半导体的崛起。到了2025年1月,BIS又发布了《人工智能扩散暂行最终规则》,这份由拜登政府提议的“AI扩散规则”进一步限制了先进计算芯片的出口,并且新增了针对闭源AI模型权重的严格监管。

  应该说,美国科技公司在全球布局和技术研发上都将遭遇更多不确定性,尤其是“AI扩散规则”发布后引起了科技界强烈反响。对此,行业巨头英伟达、甲骨文,美国半导体协会(SIA)以及美国信息技术产业协会(ITI)等都表达了反对意见,认为这可能会削弱美国在云计算、芯片设计和人工智能等关键领域的领先地位。

  但是目前看来,美国政府尚未对以上政策做出变化,而是率先盯上了英伟达的H20。H20芯片正是英伟达为符合美国出口管制而特别设计的,其实H20早已不是英伟达最先进的AI芯片。

  H20是基于英伟达上一代Hopper架构的产品,为中国市场特制的“阉割版”芯片。而英伟达最新的架构是Blackwell,该系列芯片已经规模出货,但和A系列、H系列一样受到出口限制。

  然而,美国政府执意加大管控强度。2024年,H20芯片为英伟达带来了约120亿美元至150亿美元的收入。对比英伟达去年上千亿美元的收入,尽管H20的收入占比并不高,但它为英伟达提供了重要的中国市场缓冲。今年以来,中国科技大厂纷纷加码AI基建,H20需求上涨,如今其供应再次面临政策不确定性的掣肘。

  在上个月的英伟达GTC大会上,当被问及中国市场问题时,英伟达创始人兼CEO黄仁勋向21世纪经济报道在内的媒体表示:“我们有基本的义务,让企业遵守法律,尽力去竞争和服务客户,这对于每家企业而言都是基本,我们也不例外。世界本身就很复杂,而一些因素并不是公司层面能考虑的,我们唯一需要做的,就是始终确保遵守法律,并尽最大努力服务各个市场的客户。”

  与此同时,英伟达近日宣布,正与制造合作伙伴共同在美国建立工厂,首次实现完全在美国本土生产英伟达的AI超级计算机。根据声明,英伟达计划在未来四年通过与台积电、富士康等公司合作,预计在美国生产价值高达5000亿美元的AI基础设施。

  相比之下,苹果今年同样宣布了5000亿美元的美国投资计划,并因“对等关税”豁免而短期获益。而英伟达参与的5000亿美元投资,能否为其带来许可证的转机,仍有待观察。

  一边是美国对包括H20在内的高性能芯片出口设限,另一边是中国本土半导体企业正加速自主研发步伐。

  多位半导体业内人士向21世纪经济报道记者指出,不论是拜登政府还是特朗普政府,针对中国半导体的新出口管制政策都在趋严,芯片制造环节和AI高性能芯片(先进制程)仍是关注重点。但是,业内基本有预期和准备,部分产品提前囤货、成熟制程加速发展、先进制程努力追赶。

  GPU和AI厂商也在发力,在科技巨头阵营中,华为、阿里、百度、腾讯均已布局自研AI芯片;在纯芯片厂商中,既有寒武纪、景嘉微、海光信息等上市公司,也涌现出如芯动科技、燧原科技、瀚博半导体、沐曦集成电路、壁仞科技、摩尔线程、天数智芯、地平线等一批兼具技术沉淀与创新活力的企业。值得注意的是,壁仞科技、摩尔线程、燧原科技已陆续开启IPO。

  IDC的报告指出:“2024年,中国加速芯片的市场规模增长迅速,超过270万张。从技术角度来看,GPU卡占据70%的市场份额;从品牌角度来看,中国本土人工智能芯片品牌的出货量已超过82万张。”

  IDC表示,通过适配DeepSeek,中国本土芯片在软件生态领域实现了突破,逐步完善软件生态。这为本土芯片在市场中的竞争力提供了有力支持。同时也促进了本土芯片厂商的技术交流和资源共享,打破了国产芯片生态建设的僵局。许多本土芯片厂商开始围绕DeepSeek开展合作,共同打造适配本土芯片的软件栈、工具链等生态组件。

  值得一提的是,近期华为云推出CloudMatrix384超节点,已经通过昇腾云正式商用,在芜湖数据中心规模上线。提供更强算力的同时,昇腾AI云服务已全面适配包含DeepSeek在内的160多个第三方大模型,支撑行业应用快速落地。

  中国半导体产业链正加速技术攻关与产能扩张,呈现多点突破态势。在存储芯片领域,长鑫存储作为国内DRAM龙头企业已实现多款产品量产,目前正积极推进产能爬坡;长江存储则专注NAND闪存产品创新,构建完整存储解决方案。模拟芯片赛道则涌现出圣邦股份、纳芯微、思瑞浦、富满微等一批具备核心技术的本土企业。晶圆制造环节,中芯国际与华虹公司持续加大研发投入,为产业链整体发展提供关键支撑。

  中信证券预期,一方面中国拥有庞大的下游产业集群和需求市场,以此为契机各行业有望形成加大国产芯片采用的风向,促进本土芯片制造和设计;另一方面,部分外资企业也推行“ChinaforChina”等“在地化”生产策略,将中国的需求放在中国晶圆厂生产,有望促进芯片制造环节发展。

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