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摘要

高利润与高库存并行“背后”。

昨日,宁德时代公布了2025年第一季度财务报告。公司实现营业收入847.05亿元,同比增长6.18%,增速相对平缓。

然而,其盈利能力显著增强,归属于上市公司股东的净利润达到139.63亿元,同比增长32.85%,创下历史新高。综合毛利率提升至24.4%,实现了同比及环比增长。

销量方面,宁德时代第一季度电池总销量达126GWh,同比增长超过30%。其中,动力电池销量为102GWh,同比增长36%;储能电池销量为24GWh,同比增长20%。该季度电池总销量与市场此前的预期存在一定差距。

营收增长幅度远低于销量增长,则反映出单价的压力,第一季度单GWh电池价格维持在0.6元左右,与去年四季度基本持平。

在市场竞争层面,宁德时代在国内动力电池装车量市场份额出现同比下滑。数据显示,其一季度装车量占比同比减少了4个百分点。

这一下滑主要体现在三元电池领域,该类别电池在3月份的装车量份额下降了7个百分点。这背后是终端新能源汽车加速采用磷酸铁锂电池的趋势。

而尽管宁德时代在磷酸铁锂电池市场的占有率保持稳定,但从行业整体来看,特别是LFP电池领域,供过于求的局面并未扭转。

数据显示,行业产销比(销量/产量)维持在70%左右,且在一季度略有下降,尤其是LFP电池的产销差有所扩大,显示供给侧产能相对过剩。

储能业务方面,一季度需求表现较为旺盛,销量占比回升至约20%。增长动力部分来自美国关税不确定性预期下的海外提前采购,以及国内特定项目并网节点前的安装需求。

然而,储能业务未来面临不确定性。美国关税政策是其中一个变量。

有市场分析指出,包括为特斯拉供应magapack储能电芯在内,美国市场可能占宁德时代2024年储能出货量的相当比例,并对其利润有一定贡献。若关税政策发生重大调整,可能影响相关业务。

但据宁德时代自身披露,其直接和间接涉及美国的业务出货量占比为个位数,并表示在政策波动环境下将积极与客户协商对策。

存货水平是财报中另一个引起关注的方面。截至一季度末,宁德时代存货增至656亿元,较去年四季度末的598亿元进一步增加58亿元。存货周转天数也达到89天。

公司曾解释去年底库存增加主要系在途商品,预计在一季度转化为收入。但本季度存货继续增加,结合出货量未达预期的情况,引发了市场对于储能电池是否备货过多的讨论。

宁德时代对此回应称,公司存货随销量增长而相应增加,是为了满足后续销售的备货需求,属于合理增长,并将持续加强库存管理。

为应对市场波动,宁德时代持续推进技术与商业模式创新。

在动力电池领域,宁德时代计划年内实现平均倍率6C的超充磷酸铁锂电池量产,其峰值充电速度能达到12-15C。同时,通过与中石化、蔚来等合作,公司在乘用车市场推广换电模式。

此外,公司正加大在商用车市场的渗透,其在该领域动力电池出货占比已达20%,并已经在大巴、物流车市场占据高份额。

公司预计今年商用车市场将带来较快增长,尤其受益于政策支持和欧洲商用车电动化趋势。

在储能领域,宁德时代正重点关注中东、澳洲市场以及AI数据中心带来的需求,这些市场被认为具有增长潜力。在欧洲市场,公司称其动力电池销量在一季度继续增长,对应市场份额则从2021年的17%提升至2024年的38%,位列第一,并持续扩大领先优势。

宁德时代称其德国工厂已开始盈利,匈牙利一期工厂预计年底投产,产能已被预订,主要满足欧洲本土OEM客户的需求。

财务方面,公司研发投入保持稳健增长,一季度达48.14亿元,同比增长10.92%。经营活动产生的现金流量净额为328.68亿元,同比增长15.91%,现金流状况良好。

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