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冉学东

由于特朗普对等关税政策对美国经济造成的确定性影响,美国上下都盼着鲍威尔尽快降低利息,但是鲍威尔在昨晚的讲话中,让市场打消了这个念头。

并且鲍威尔直指关税战将会导致美国经济的通胀,他说:“关税很可能至少导致通胀暂时上升。通胀的影响也可能(alsopossible)更为持久。”鲍威尔指出,特朗普的关税上调幅度甚至超过了美联储预计的高端假设场景。“关税水平超出了预测者的预期,当然也高于我们的预期,甚至在我们的上端预期情形下也是如此。”

鲍威尔暗示,美联储可能陷入既要遏制高通胀又要支持经济增长的两难困境。

他说:“在履行这一职责的过程中,我们将平衡充分就业和物价稳定的目标,同时牢记,如果没有物价稳定,我们就无法实现惠及所有美国人的长期强劲劳动力市场。我们可能会发现自身处于(以上)双重目标相互冲突的挑战境地。如果这种情况当真发生,我们将考虑经济距离每个目标还有多远,以及预计在哪些不同的时间范围内缩小这些差距。”

对特朗普政策的批评也来自美联储前主席和前财政部部长耶伦,她批评特朗普政府的关税政策对美国经济造成了严重的自我伤害,认为这是她见过的最糟糕的政策之一。她指出,特朗普的关税政策可能会使普通家庭每年损失数千美元,并且这些政策对原本运转良好的经济造成了不必要的破坏。此外,尽管实施了关税和相关补贴政策,但是将制造业工作岗位回流美国的目标仍不切实际且并不可取。

很显然,在这种情况下,美联储是很难降息的,这显然直接和特朗普降息的想法针锋相对。

对于鲍威尔的美联储主席任期,特朗普团队早就颇有微词,希望尽快换人。4月14日,美国财长贝森特称:“一直在考虑下一任美联储主席人选,计划秋季开始面试潜在候选人。”以前市场猜测未来的美联储主席很可能是贝森特。

当被问及美联储主席一职面临政府的威胁时,鲍威尔表示,美联储的独立性是由美国法律赋予的,政府不可以无故罢免联储官员。他说:“我们(美联储)的独立性是一个法律问题。”

鲍威尔的以上表态对最近正在大幅下跌的美元是一个支撑,4月11日,美元跌破100关口,近几日一直在震荡,4月16日,美元开始有所反弹。

鲍威尔不赞成所谓押注美联储将拯救股市的看法。被问道,如果市场暴跌,美联储是否会介入降息,鲍威尔回答:“不会。”他给出的解释是,面对关税政策迅速变动相关的不确定性,市场正在正常运转,而且是有序的。

被问及随着美元下跌出现的美债市场抛售时,鲍威尔表示,“很难实时了解”正在发生的事情。在他的职业生涯中曾见过一些情况,当时有一种说法可以解释债市的大波动,但几个月后回过头来看,那种说法却被认为是错的。

4月9日,30年期美债收益率迅速拉升20个基点,盘中触及5%。创下1982年以来的最大单日涨幅。美国国债市场功能一度失常。第二日,美元下跌接近2%。

此次美元大幅下跌,欧元、日元和黄金等货币大幅上涨,似乎遂了特朗普的心愿,他一直希望美元汇率能够降低一些,以吸引美国制造业回流,增加出口,减少进口。但是这次美元的下跌的原因却是由于特朗普政策导致的美元信任危机,这显然又是他不愿意看到的,所以近期在关税政策上立场有所软化。

其实在特朗普和鲍威尔之间存在一个“特里芬难题”:特朗普希望鲍威尔降息,让美元稍微弱是一些,以提高美国制造业的竞争力,减少贸易逆差。但是,美元弱势一定会削弱美元的全球储备货币地位。因为美元之所以能够成为全球储备货币,就是因为存在贸易逆差,每年输出大量的美元,使得更多人持有和使用美元进行交易,如果没有逆差,就没有美元现在的地位。

特朗普和贝森特既要美元全球储备货币地位,还要顺差,这就让他们包括鲍威尔陷入了特里芬难题。这一点只有鲍威尔和耶伦看到了:特朗普的贸易政策正在危害美元的国际储备货币地位。

责任编辑:冯樱子主编:张志伟

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