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订阅 快刀财经 ▲做您的私人商学院

作者:王怜花

来源:快刀财经(ID:kuaidaocaijing)

15日上午,美团官方宣布,推出“新一代购物平台——美团闪购”。广大网友很快发现,美团的宣传视频疑似“内涵”京东。视频中,用来衬托美团的对照组头像是一只狗,而众所周知,京东的LOGO正是一只狗。此外,还留下了诸如“你的东东再等等”这样暗示性拉满的台词。“美团闪购疑似嘲讽京东”的词条瞬间冲上热搜。

有意思的是,两小时后,京东官方立即在京东黑板报发文,称“京东不打口水仗,但会坚持说实话”。其中,“GMV比‘幽灵外卖’1000万单还大”的说法就差点出美团的大名了。

两家巨头这轮的隔空喊话开始于上周末。

4月12日上午,美团核心本地商业CEO王莆中在社交媒体上发文,透露美团非餐饮品类订单已突破1800万单。但言语之中,又明里暗里将京东讽刺了一通,“京东不是第一家想做外卖的公司”、“如果把外卖当作即时零售(30分钟送万物)的一部分,达达和京东到家早在2014年就开始了,只不过收效甚微。”、“某些公司如鲠在喉,如芒在背。”

随后,刘强东和下属的对话截图随之流传网络,刘强东直言,“不要和人打口仗,不能产生社会价值。”

从年初入局外卖,到前几日宣布一年内将投入超百亿元,刘强东更是在李斌的视频中出镜官宣“做外卖是认真的”,京东不断地挑逗着大众的外卖心智。外界一直期待着美团何时回应,如今,美团终于坐不住了。

同样在今天,据新浪科技报道,一段刘强东2024年内部讲话的线上会议视频流出。视频中,刘强东谈到了京东外卖需要控制利润率、需要给骑手交五险一金、还要让用户能放心吃。

当外卖行业迎来一个全新的玩家,谁又开始慌了?

01

新玩家入局,美团定价权不保?

4月9日,蔚来创始人李斌在社交平台晒出与京东创始人刘强东一起吃外卖的合影。李斌说,“我问强东,京东搞外卖是认真的吗?他说,必须的,京东要做父母、孩子、客人都能放心吃的品质外卖。以后点外卖就点京东外卖。”

事实上,早在2024年,在京东官宣做外卖前,刘强东在一次内部会议中就曾经将自己的想法一吐为快。

“老百姓的民生行业里,基础民生行业里面,竟然能够存在一个公司,一年有几千亿的收入,上千亿的利润,令人惊奇。”

3月21日,美团发布2024第四季度及全年财报。美团全年营收3376亿元,同比增长22%,经调整利润净额为437.72亿元,同比增长88.2%。全年净利润358.1亿元,同比增长158.4%。虽然利润上没有达到千亿级别,但如此庞大的数字,也着实基本符合刘强东的说法。

关于美团的统治力,各个数据源提出了自己的数据:交银国际证券研报显示,2024年,美团外卖市场份额高达65%;智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国餐饮外卖行业市场现状调查及未来趋势研判报告》显示,美团外卖如今占据中国餐饮外卖市场份额的70%,尽管还有其他数字,但都殊途同归地指向了一个观点:美团是当今国内外卖行业无可置疑的霸主的存在。

从古至今,中国人都讲究“民以食为天”,但一个残酷的事实是,餐饮业长久以来一直是典型的薄利行业。

以火锅龙头海底捞为例,即使在2023年那么火爆的情况下,它的利润率也只有11.96%,而2018年、2019年、2020年,海底捞的净利润率分别是9.7%、8.8%、1.1%。

北京统计局发布的数据显示,2024年上半年,北京规模以上餐饮业利润总额为1.8亿元,同比下降88.8%,利润率低至0.37%。

据《2024年中国餐饮行业报告》,2024年餐饮行业平均客单价同比下降8.3%,以“9.9元工作餐”为例,其在美团外卖平台的订单量占比从2023年的12%飙升至2024年的38%,但同期餐饮企业净利润率从8.6%骤降至5.2%。

餐饮企业的利润率日益下滑,但在这种情况下,有一家公司却能通过提供平台的方式,每年拿走数百亿元的净利润,且增速动辄是惊人的三位数,确实不得不令人侧目。

外卖是美团发家的阵地,但并非美团的全部领地,吃、喝、玩、乐,人们的日常生活的每个犄角旮旯,美团无不涉及,且如今,俨然已经成为外卖行业,乃至生活服务行业当之无愧的龙头老大。春风得意之时,突然闯入一个体量相近的巨头,表示自己也要做外卖,而且“是认真的”。任谁也会多三分警醒。

事实上,京东刚加入战局,就将百亿补贴、免佣金和低抽成等政策摆上台面,无论对商家还是消费者都有极大吸引力,“给骑手交五险一金”更是将另一大参与方也收入自己的“乾坤袋”。

可以预见的是,这无疑会引发美团的反击。美团若跟进补贴,将压缩其利润空间,进而影响其定价策略,调整收费模式也可能会让其盈利能力受到极大影响。总而言之,对于美团来说,京东的入场,往小了说,利润可能被压低,往大了说,随时都可能影响整个公司的战略方向。

02

刘强东做外卖,想“细水长流”

美团的佣金过多,一直是外界质疑的一大槽点。

此前,一位新一线城市的畅跑骑手透露,畅跑单价大约在2.5元一单,加上时段补贴大约3元,如果是多天签大概在4-5元/单,以一天跑9-10个小时为例,大概完成单量在45单左右,累计收入就在200元左右。“有一次8.1km只给我4块钱,换你你接吗?”

如果说对外卖员只是收入上的影响,那对直接控制餐品品质的商家进行利润压缩,则甚至会直接影响到餐品的品质。

2020年4月10日,广东省餐饮协会发布一则《广东餐饮行业致美团外卖联名交涉函》,称收到几百家餐饮企业的各类投诉,直指美团外卖的垄断和高佣金之举让众多餐饮商家不堪重负。有商家抱怨,“新开餐饮商户的佣金最高达26%”。

重压之下,即使是连锁店也难以保证食品安全。前段时间315期间,知名连锁品牌“杨铭宇黄焖鸡”被记者曝光食品安全问题:使用存放多天的发酸食材,顾客食用后的剩菜回收再加工售卖,隔夜发黑的牛肉加色素后冒充新鲜牛肉,甚至大量无需健康证的店员直接上岗……

这些恐怕只是冰山一隅,毕竟当一只屋子发现一只蟑螂时,意味着屋子里已经全是蟑螂了。

在2024年的那场会议中,刘强东也提到了这一点,“我听说佣金有的甚至到了30%多了,如果加上广告费什么的(就更多了),这样一来带来的危害就是,让餐厅为了生存不断的降低自己的品质,在厕所里面去洗那个整只鸡、在一个个地下室里面,老鼠蟑螂爬在一块呢、一些外卖餐厅专门做外卖,没有堂食,肉和老鼠苍蝇蟑螂混在一块,触目惊心。”

然而,在商业战场里,“屠龙者终成恶龙”的故事从来都屡见不鲜。

刘强东谈到如何避免京东外卖同样落入“抽成过多”陷阱的时候,给京东做外卖划出了底线,“我给京东外卖定一条规矩,京东外卖永远赚的净利润不允许超过5%。超过5%,我要处分人的。我们一定要在行业里面,按照三毛五的理论,来约束自己的赚钱能力、赚钱欲望。”

京东的三毛五理论,是刘强东在京东成长初期提出的一种利润分配理念,其核心思想是:如果京东有机会获取一元利润,只会拿走七毛,另外三毛留给合作伙伴;拿走的七毛中,三毛五留给团队,剩余三毛五用于公司持续发展。

“我们牺牲一部分利润,不要让餐饮的人卷得太厉害,导致他们食品不安全,也不要让外卖小哥卷太厉害,导致他们的身心未来都得不到保障。”刘强东的哲学是一如既往的,让利于合作伙伴,给合作伙伴留出调整空间;而不是将他们逼到墙角,如果这样做,迟早会将他们逼出底线。

于是,2月19日,京东官宣为外卖骑手缴纳五险一金;3月20日,京东外卖宣布已与超10000名全职骑手签署正式劳动合同;3月21日,刘强东在朋友圈发言,“我们的利润、市值和财富更不应该建立在底层百姓无保障的生活之上的!呼吁所有快递员和骑手都可以获得五险一金待遇,因为今天中国几大平台的利润和市值完全可以支撑!期待各阶层一起幸福生活!”

当然,京东做外卖也并非为了做慈善,在刘强东看来,此举也能帮助京东“可持续发展”。

他坦言,“最后我们的利润可能比美团少很多,美团的净利率可能是我们3倍、5倍,都有可能,但是呢我坚信我们会活得更长啊,我们可以细水长流。”

让事情是它本来的样子,或许,东哥的自信在于,这样建立在自己二十年理念上的玩法,京东已经有足够的经验了。

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  美国国土安全部表示,哈佛大学如果不能满足特朗普政府的要求,将不能再招收外国留学生。这是美国政府针对该教育机构采取的最新升级行动。

  美国国土安全部部长诺姆(KristiNoem)周三还宣布终止对哈佛大学的两项拨款,总额超过270万美元。

  诺姆说,她已致函哈佛大学,要求在4月30日之前提供有关校内外国学生签证持有者的“非法和暴力活动”记录。“如果哈佛不能证实其完全遵守了报告要求,该校将失去招收外国学生的权力,”诺姆在一份声明中说。

  “哈佛拥有532亿美元的捐赠基金,可以自己出钱消除混乱,而国土安全部不会,”诺姆还补充说,哈佛存在“反美、亲哈马斯的意识形态”。

  哈佛大学此前曾表示,该校在维护学术自由和抗议权利的同时,也努力打击校园内的反犹太主义和其他偏见。

  特朗普政府上月底表示,正在审查给哈佛大学的90亿美元联邦合同和拨款,随后要求该校实施限制措施,包括禁止示威者佩戴面具和取消多样性、公平性和包容性项目,然后才能继续获得联邦拨款。

  哈佛大学周一拒绝了多项要求,称这将把控制权交到政府手里。特朗普政府随后表示将冻结23亿美元资金。

  特朗普周二还威胁要剥夺哈佛大学的免税资格。美媒周三报道称,美国国税局正在制定取消哈佛大学免税资格的计划,预计很快做出最终决定。

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