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香港特别行政区

  欧洲保险监管机构负责人表示,美国国债市场近期的剧烈波动正使其避险地位受到质疑。

  据知情人士透露,欧洲保险和职业养老金管理局(EIOPA)主席PetraHielkema上周在代表欧盟金融监管机构所作的一场简报中发表了上述言论。

  在闭门会议上的这一表态凸显出市场对美国国债的担忧情绪。美国国债长期以来被视为全球“无风险”资产,并作为全球每日数以万亿美元贷款交易的抵押品。尽管目前没有迹象显示欧洲监管机构正在采取任何具体行动,但这番言论表明,外界对美债的看法在短短数周内发生了巨大转变。

  美国国债市场近来出现剧烈波动。在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普提出全面关税政策、给全球贸易造成严重威胁并可能导致经济陷入衰退之际,上周10年期国债收益率创下20年来最大涨幅。与此同时,投资者纷纷转向其他避险资产,如黄金、德国国债以及欧元。

  推荐阅读:避险资产世界似乎多了选择美国国债面临“竞品”挑战

  在法兰克福的EIOPA周四没有立即回复寻求置评的电话和电子邮件。

  要点

  周四,土耳其央行将其关键利率,即一周期回购利率从42.5%上调至46%,这一举措令市场感到意外。

  此前,土耳其3月份的年通货膨胀率为38.1%。

  在美国实施关税以及伊斯坦布尔市长、反对派领导人埃克雷姆・伊玛莫格鲁被捕后出现重大政治动荡的背景下,土耳其一直在应对经济混乱局面。

2024年3月4日日落时分,土耳其伊斯坦布尔的城市景观。

  周四,土耳其央行将其关键利率,即一周期回购利率从42.5%上调至46%,结束了自去年12月开始的宽松周期,这一举措令市场感到意外。

  这一决定是在美国关税导致经济混乱,以及3月份伊斯坦布尔市长、反对派领导人埃克雷姆・伊玛莫格鲁被捕后出现重大政治动荡和投资者外逃的背景下做出的。

  土耳其货币政策委员会在随决定发布的声明中写道:“在收紧货币政策方面的果断态度,正通过抑制国内需求、土耳其里拉实际升值以及改善通胀预期,来推进去通胀进程。”

  该委员会提到“全球贸易中不断上升的保护主义可能会通过全球经济活动、大宗商品价格和资本流动,对去通胀进程产生影响”,并表示“在通过持续降低通胀实现价格稳定之前,将维持收紧的货币政策立场”。

  土耳其3月份的年通货膨胀率为38.1%。

  此次加息是在外汇储备大幅减少的情况下进行的。3月19日伊玛莫格鲁被捕及随后的抗议活动发生后,土耳其央行为了捍卫里拉,在三天内动用了高达250亿美元的资金,里拉曾一度短暂跌至创纪录低点,超过40里拉兑换1美元。伊玛莫格鲁被捕的消息传出后,土耳其市场最初大幅下挫,该国政府于3月23日禁止卖空,并放宽了股票回购规则,以提振股票市场。

  3月20日,里拉贬值促使央行紧急加息200个基点,将其隔夜贷款利率提高至46.00%,达到利率区间的上限。

  杰富瑞(Jefferies)外汇业务全球主管布拉德・贝希特尔(BradBechtel)表示,因此,周四的加息在很大程度上是3月份一系列事件发生后的技术性调整。

  贝希特尔在央行周四宣布加息后的一份报告中写道:“我们将看看(土耳其总统雷杰普・塔伊普・)埃尔多安对央行举措的看法,但到目前为止,央行在应对政治噪音、持续抗击通胀方面做得相当不错。”

  凯投宏观(CapitalEconomics)新兴欧洲经济学家尼古拉斯・法尔(NicholasFarr)周四在分析报告中写道,央行的这一举措“将使上个月实施的紧缩政策正式化,表明政策制定者对通胀的上行风险更加担忧”。

  法尔写道,货币政策委员会的声明“强调了里拉走弱带来的风险,以及政策制定者将在当前美国贸易保护主义存在不确定性的情况下,密切关注资本流动情况”。

  凯投宏观的分析师预计,未来几个月土耳其的通胀率将呈下降趋势,并且认为不会再有进一步的紧缩政策出台。

  报告还补充称:“但很明显,央行的宽松周期遇到了重大阻碍,重启宽松周期可能还需要一段时间。我们现在预计,一周期回购利率到年底将维持在40.00%(此前预测为35.00%)。”

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