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  “针对全球最新变化,已指示证监会和港交所做好准备,若在海外上市的中概股希望回流,必须让香港成为它们首选的上市地。”针对中美关税大战之下,在美中概股面临被“除牌”的潜在风险,香港特区政府财政司司长陈茂波日前公开撰文作出如此表态。

  Wind统计数据显示,截至4月18日,目前在美上市的中概股总计有390家,合计总市值超过9200亿美元。陈茂波的表态引发了市场的遐想:香港在迎接中概股回流上做了怎样的准备?胜算如何?将给香港国际金融中心的地位带来怎样深远的影响?

  机构测算:27家中概股符合回港条件

  除对中国出口商品持续增加关税,美国政府还可能对在美上市的中国公司“下手”。

  此前有消息称,若在美上市的中国公司不允许检查会计底稿等,美国法律将准许其退市。而即将上任的美国证交会主席保罗·阿特金斯(PaulAtkins)可能会在上任后,处理退市问题。这使得在美上市的中概股再次面临不确定性。

  记者根据Wind数据统计,截至4月18日,目前在美上市的中概股总计有390家,合计总市值超过9200亿美元,其中包括阿里巴巴、拼多多在内的前20家中概股公司的市值超过7800亿美元,占比约85%。

  值得注意的是,阿里巴巴、网易、京东等头部中概股多数已在香港二次上市或双重主要上市,目前仅在美股市场上市的只有拼多多、亚玛芬体育、富途控股、满帮、唯品会等少数公司,且其中一些公司也已筹划在港上市。

  瑞银于近日公布的一份分析也指出,由于许多中概股已经实现在中国香港的双重上市,中概股“除牌”风险预计影响较小。据记者统计,近些年赴美上市的企业整体募资总额以及平均单价企业募资规模均呈下滑趋势。按上市日期算,2025年以来,截至4月18日,在美上市的中概股仅有32家,合计募资7.72亿美元。

  据高盛测算,当前符合回流香港条件的27家中概股总市值为1.4万亿港元,覆盖电商、金融科技、生物医药等多个领域,其中就有拼多多、满帮、富途等公司。

  安永大中华区财务会计咨询服务主管合伙人刘国华接受证券时报记者采访时指出,当前有三个行业的企业适合回到港股上市:互联网与科技行业、新能源与电动车行业,以及零售与消费行业。其中,市值在百亿美元以上的行业龙头企业,以及在细分领域中具备特色和竞争优势,且处于快速成长期的中等市值公司,都或能在港股市场上获得不错的表现。

  已做好充足准备香港或加速融入“双循环”格局

  事实上,早在2022年的中美科技及贸易摩擦中,中概股也同样面临被“除牌”风险。从那时起,多家中概股就启动了赴港第二上市,以此对冲不确定性风险。而经过数年的上市制度改革和优化后,香港在迎接中概股回归上已没有障碍。

  具体来看,香港早在2018年就推行上市制度改革,包括允许尚未有盈利的生物科技公司上市、开放同股不同权限制,以及接受部分企业在当地进行第二上市等。

  此外,今年2月,陈茂波也表示,香港将改善审批流程,优化双重主要上市及第二上市门槛,以及检讨市场结构,包括研究设立退市后场外交易机制。据悉,优化后的双重主要上市和第二上市制度将放宽对企业的市值、行业属性(如取消“创新产业公司”要求)及合规年限的限制。

  香港迎接中概股“回流”做足了功课、信心满满,这批合资格在港上市的“中概股”将给港股市场带来怎样的影响?

  在受访人士看来,最直观显著的利好有两个:一是活跃市场。“虽然短期来看,可能会稀释资金池,但长期来看,这些大企业在港上市有助于吸引全球投资者关注,吸引境内外资金流入香港市场,从而提升市场的流动性。”华辉创富投资总经理袁华明表示。

  二是优化市场结构。刘国华指出,中概股中不少是互联网、科技、生物医药等新经济板块的企业,而港股过去以传统行业为主。中概股的回流将使港股市场的新经济比重不断上升,优化港股的行业结构,使港股市场的指数运行更能反映中国经济增长和转型的实际情况,吸引更多关注新经济的投资者。

  实际上,近两年港股“向新”发展的趋势相当明显,随着越来越多科技企业在港上市,港股的交易活跃度得到了显著提高。数据显示,2025年以来,港股日均交易额超过2400亿港元,远超此前历史峰值。资金流入方面,截至4月17日,港股通累计净买入4.30万亿港元,年内成交净买入6044.61亿港元,占比已经达2024年全年的74.82%。

  从上市公司数量来看,截至目前,港股上市公司超过2600家,总市值接近40万亿港元。尤其今年以来,港股涨幅领先多个市场,截至4月18日,恒生指数年内上涨6.66%,恒生科技指数上涨9.38%。

  有市场评论指出,若成功承接中概股回流,香港将加速融入“双循环”格局,一方面为中国企业国际化提供跳板,另一方面吸引更多海外资金配置中国资产。这种“双向开放”的深化,或将重塑全球金融权力结构。

  市场仍有顾虑 专家建议港股实施“制度—生态—战略”三位一体改革

  记者与业内人士交流后了解到,市场对于中概股“回流”港股信心满满,但也存在一些顾虑。一是,如何衔接好两个市场不同的监管制度?据了解,美国市场采用“披露制”,强调企业自主信息披露,而香港更接近“核准制”,对合规性要求更高。

  刘国华指出,中概股企业大多具有独特的业务模式、股权结构和财务特征,部分企业可能与港股现有的上市规则存在差异。港交所需要在保障投资者权益的前提下,进一步完善相关规则,以更好地适应这些企业回港上市的需求。但他也认为,此前多家中概股在港二次上市和双重上市为香港积累了经验,香港市场的国际化特征和制度灵活性也为这一过程提供了缓冲空间。

  南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉接受证券时报记者采访时指出,在监管机制上,香港应该设立“跨境监管沙盒”,针对中概股回归涉及的跨境法律冲突,允许在特定试点范围内豁免部分规则,探索与内地及国际监管机构的互认机制。也需要根据企业所属行业特性差异化设定市值、流动性要求,动态调整“二次上市”标准,避免“一刀切”限制创新型企业回归。

  陈茂波对此也表态,香港将“主动出击”,针对中概股特点优化监管框架,确保企业“来得了、留得住、发展得好”。

  二是,香港当前的市场容量能否接得住中概股的“回流”?受访人士普遍认为,若大批量中概股回流香港,港股市场的资金或将承压。刘国华认为,港股市场若迎来大规模新增上市公司,而市场资金未能同步大幅增长,可能会导致部分股票交易活跃度不足,甚至会出现短期的供大于求局面,影响企业估值和股价表现。

  对此,田利辉建议,可在制度创新上进一步下功夫。在港股通扩容基础上,推动做市商为回流中概股提供双向报价,同步开发挂钩中概股的期权、期货产品,提升市场深度。也要试点“同股不同权+ESG”融合架构,允许回归企业保留特殊股权结构的同时,强制要求设立ESG委员会并披露技术伦理风险,平衡资本效率与社会责任。

  此外,在市场生态建设上,他还建议,要联合港交所、投行及科研机构,为拟上市企业提供“技术评估—专利定价—上市辅导”一体化服务,解决硬科技企业估值难题。还要考虑推动中概股回归发行人民币计价股票,联动大湾区跨境理财通机制,吸引东南亚主权基金通过港股配置人民币资产。

  田利辉表示,港股承接中概股回流需跳出传统“通道思维”,转向“制度—生态—战略”三位一体改革:以沙盒机制化解跨境风险,以衍生品创新激活定价能力,以人民币国际化重构资金链路,最终将香港从“上市地”升级为“全球科技资本配置枢纽”。这一过程中,既要借力国家战略,也需保持与国际规则的动态适配。

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