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无人生还(黑化 囚禁):与系列前作的对比分析
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无人生还(黑化 囚禁):与系列前作的对比分析

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作者|东台

跨国器械巨头,或将遭受关税风暴的最大冲击。

01

强生发出关税影响预警

将产生4亿美元费用

当地时间4月15日,强生公司首席财务官约瑟夫・沃尔克(JosephWolk)表示,基于特朗普政府已宣布的商品和原材料关税,公司预计将面临4亿美元(折合人民币约29.2亿元)的利润损失。强生公司表示,受关税影响最大的是医疗技术部门。

这项预测是基于已经宣布的关税计划和执行时间,相关成本包括墨西哥和加拿大的关税,部分产品的钢铁和铝的关税(这部分影响较小)以及中国的关税。其中,与中国市场相关的关税成本,可能是最大的影响因素。尤其原产地为美国、销往中国的产品,将会受到很大影响。

强生公司是首家公开此轮关税风暴带来的成本影响的跨国器械巨头。有评论指出,强生的关税困境可能是一个迹象,受关税影响的中国和其他国际市场的设备制造商,可能会在本季度调整指导方针。

分析师预计,关税将成为围绕医疗技术公司今年一季度收益的讨论关键领域。对于在中国拥有大量收入或制造业风险敞口的公司来说尤其如此。波士顿科学、美敦力、Integra、Intuitive和Teleflex等被认为属于此类情况。

近期,美敦力、GE医疗也透露,正在准备缓解计划,评估特朗普关税政策的潜在影响。

综合来看,尽管近几年许多跨国企业加码在中国的本土化生产和研发,但仍有不少细分品类以进口为主导。如果关税风暴持续下去,跨国企业原产地为美国的产品销往中国,将受到较大影响。

国内医疗器械从业者也关注到了这一信号。一位业内人士表示:“强生中国区销售的外科缝线、介入导管等产品依赖美国进口,如果未来关税成本转嫁至终端价格,可能导致市场份额部分流失,院端和经销商也可能部分转向国产品牌。”

不过仅就当下而言,在已经签订合同协议的情况下,定价不太可能成为缓解策略。强生预计,其美国制造能力将随着时间的推移帮助进一步抵消关税。而未来如何,还有待进一步观察。

02

2025年一季度保持增长

心血管业务继续领跑

尽管可能受到关税影响,强生对于2025年依然颇有信心。

4月15日,强生发布2025Q1财报。2025年第一季度强生实现营收219亿美元,同比增长2.4%,超出市场预期。其中,强生医疗科技营收80亿美元,同比增长2.5%。

(截图自强生医疗科技官网)

董事长兼首席执行官JoaquinDuato说:“强生独特多元化产品组合的力量在本季度得到了充分展示,强劲的运营销售增长加强了我们对2025年指导的信心。”

强生公司将其全年销售指导从之前的预测在892亿至900亿美元之间,提高到910亿至918亿美元。调整后的每股收益指导保持不变,为10.50美元至10.70美元。

聚焦在器械领域,今年一季度,强生医疗科技的增长主要由心血管领域的Abiomed、普外的伤口闭合产品推动,但部分增长被脊柱、运动和其他整形外科所抵消。

心血管业务依然领跑增长,销售额达21亿美元,同比增长16.5%;骨科业务则有一定下滑,销售额22.4亿美元,同比下降4.2%。

新产品推进方面,2025Q1强生启动普外科机器人系统OTTAVA的临床试验。

4月14日,强生医疗科技宣布完成OTTAVA™机器人手术系统的首批临床试验病例。

相关研究完成后,强生计划在美国提交OTTAVA系统DeNovo授权,目标适应症涵盖胃旁路、胃套、小肠切除、裂孔疝修补等上腹部普外科多种手术。

OTTAVA机器人系统正在开发中,未被授权在任何市场上销售或销售。该产品旨在解决当今机器人手术中未满足的需求,并支持复杂的手术。此前,OTTAVA系统于2024年底获得了美国FDA的研究器械豁免(IDE)批准。

按照强生此前计划,接下来创新及高增长领域仍将是该公司的重要发力点。

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