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  一季度,“冠军基”“季军基”规模双双破百亿元!

  4月21日,今年一季度公募基金业绩排名第一的鹏华碳中和主题A、排名第三的永赢先进制造智选A相继披露了2025年一季报。两只基金规模均在一季度实现大规模增长,从2024年末的10亿级别规模,增长至百亿元规模,截至一季度末,两只基金规模分别达108.96亿元、115.18亿元。

  两只基金均在一季度重仓人形机器人板块,基金经理在一季报中对该板块做出解读。

  其中,鹏华碳中和主题基金基金经理闫思倩认为,2025年将成为具身智能发展元年,随着中国制造与AI快速发展,具身智能在未来几年将提升各制造业行业生产效率,大幅降低制造成本,目前仍处于从0到1的起步阶段,空间巨大却也还有很长的路要走。永赢先进制造智选基金经理张璐认为,机器人板块是未来10年大级别beta机会,机器人板块会持续活跃,但随着量产的逐步落地,个股可能会去伪存真,分化可能加剧,波动会有所增加。

  一季度绩优基金规模双双破百亿

  4月21日,今年一季度公募基金业绩排名第一的鹏华碳中和主题A和排名第三的永赢先进制造智选A双双披露一季报。

  因重仓机器人板块,鹏华碳中和主题A、永赢先进制造智选A今年一季度业绩表现亮眼,收益率分别为60.26%、52.32%。一季度,两只基金规模大增,鹏华碳中和主题基金份额由2024年末的10.51亿份增至今年一季度末的69.13亿份,规模达108.96亿元;永赢先进制造智选基金份额由2024年末的14.01亿份增至今年一季度末的60.11亿份,规模达115.18亿元。

  从具体持仓来看,今年一季度,鹏华碳中和主题较2024年末大幅增持了双林股份、中大力德、五洲新春(维权)、震裕科技、华辰装备、汉威科技、中坚科技、兆威机电、绿的谐波等个股,并新买入捷昌驱动;截至一季度末,该基金前十大重仓股分别为双林股份、中大力德、五洲新春、震裕科技、华辰装备、汉威科技、捷昌驱动、中坚科技、兆威机电、绿的谐波。

  永赢先进制造智选增持了北特科技、浙江荣泰、震裕科技、斯菱股份、兆威机电、中大力德、伟创电气、肇民科技、蓝黛科技,并新买入凌云股份。截至一季度末,该基金前十大重仓股分别为北特科技、浙江荣泰、震裕科技、斯菱股份、凌云股份、兆威机电、中大力德、伟创电气、肇民科技、蓝黛科技。

  2025年是人形机器人量产元年

  对于年内热门赛道机器人板块,基金经理在一季报中给出详尽分析认为,2025年是人形机器人量产元年,未来渗透率的天花板高且想象空间大。

  回顾一季度机器人板块的亮眼表现,永赢先进制造智选基金经理张璐表示,机器人板块近期有四个维度的积极变化:1.机器人板块在持续扩圈,从以前的机器人主机厂单一映射到现在有了国内外多个机器人主机厂衍生的多个产业链共同映射。个股方面,大量传统电新、汽车、机械等板块公司开始涉及机器人相关业务,机器人相关个股数量增加明显;2.整个一季度机器人板块有较密集的催化,各主机厂机器人新视频的不断推出、春晚机器人节目出圈、英伟达CES大会等事件使得机器人板块持续维持着高关注度和高热度;3.政策端方面,广深、江浙沪、川渝、安徽等几个省市陆续发布了机器人产业支持政策,对于机器人产业链,政策层面有超预期的扶持力度;4.产业链进展方面,2025年是人形机器人量产元年,全球范围内可能会有革命性的机器人产品发布,产业将开启量产时刻。

  鹏华碳中和主题基金经理闫思倩在一季报中表示,2025年以来,多家汽车及零部件公司公告转型具身智能,主流车企都在加入机器人产业化阵营。两会期间,全国人大代表、小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏预计未来将在人形机器人领域投资500亿—1000亿元。互联网巨头像当年涌入互联网造车一样,纷纷涌入人形机器人领域。2025年将成为具身智能发展元年,随着中国制造与AI快速发展,具身智能在未来几年将提升各制造业行业生产效率,大幅降低制造成本。但目前仍处于从0到1的起步阶段,空间巨大却也还有很长的路要走。

  人形机器人赛道分化可能加剧,投资需注意风险

  展望二季度,张璐认为,人形机器人产业链依然在快速地发展,行业日新月异。机器人板块会持续活跃,但随着量产的逐步落地,个股可能会去伪存真,分化可能加剧,波动会有所增加。

  机器人板块是未来10年大级别beta机会。它的闪耀登场远不止解放双手那么简单,无论从情感陪伴还是物理支持都将全方位赋能人类的生活。特斯拉公司首席执行官埃隆·马斯克多次阐述愿景:未来人类和人形机器人的比例将不止1:1,有较大可能超过人类数量,渗透率的天花板高且想象空间大。人形机器人相较于其他行业壁垒较高,涉及多学科的融合、软硬件的协同,所以对入局的资金、技术、资源整合都有相对较高的要求。而且产业链从上游到核心零部件和系统零部件,到中游的机器人本体和系统集成,到下游的终端应用,产业链长且复杂。机器人,可能是未来不可多得的,如同当年消费电子中苹果产业链、特斯拉电动车产业链——现象级的长坡厚雪大赛道。

  “板块短期上涨较多后,我们也在机器人细分领域内做出取舍,例如市场对可能面临快速通缩、同质化竞争激烈的品种的定价较为充分后,我们更愿意把仓位布局在感知类零部件、新制造工艺、潜在新型电机方案、整机组装代工商、积极拓展机器人业务且估值相对偏低的公司等。”一季度“亚军基”平安先进制造的基金经理张荫先在一季报中表示,本产品一贯的投资方法:一方面布局确定性,寻找在机器人业务中较高概率进入供应链的公司,另一方面挖掘弹性,积极寻找主业基本面有支撑或改善、同时新拓展机器人业务的优秀公司,这类标的一旦实现0—1的新突破,有望获得估值及业绩的双击机会。

  需要注意的是,永赢先进制造智选一季报特别提示,永赢智选系列作为聚焦新质生产力的工具型产品系列,其高成长性决定了必会伴随较大的市场波动。对于该产品来说,面对人形机器人这样一个具有长期向好逻辑的板块,单纯地追高或在市场波动时恐慌离场都不是最优策略。投资者在初次接触相关行业时,不妨将其纳入关注列表,深入了解和研究该行业及工具型产品的风险收益特征,基于真正看好时再做出投资决策,而不要仅仅因为热度高就跟风购买。若看好板块未来发展,可以考虑采用定投方式与行业共同成长,熨平短期波动,力争享受行业长期发展的红利。同时,也希望大家能够适当分散投资,从更理性、更长期的角度做好资产配置,不要把资金全部押注到单一产品。

  4月20日晚间北信源发布2025年度向特定对象发行股票预案。

  本次向特定对象发行股票采用竞价方式,本次向特定对象发行的定价基准日为发行期首日,发行价格不低于定价基准日前20个交易日公司股票交易均价的80%。

  本次发行的股票种类为境内上市人民币普通股(A股),每股面值为人民币1.00元。本次发行的股票将在深圳证券交易所创业板上市交易。本次向特定对象发行的股票数量按照募集资金总额除以发行价格确定,且不超过本次发行前总股本的30%,即不超过434,947,226股(含本数)。

  本次募集资金总额不超过人民币47,733.04万元(含本数),在扣除相关发行费用后的募集资金净额拟投资于信源密信安全AI基座项目、智能应急响应平台研发项目。

  分红缺失与实控人减持套现

  北信源的股东回报体系呈现“双输”格局:中小投资者长期零分红,而大股东通过减持套现攫取利益。

  在股东回报上,相比同行,奇安信、启明星辰等同行近三年分红率均值达30%,而北信源分红金额不足其1%。

  公司自2012年上市以来累计派现1.17亿元,远低于同期股权融资额(12.62亿定增+IPO募资3.9亿)。近三年(2022-2024)因未弥补亏损达4.07亿元,连续停止分红。

  需要指出的是,大股东疑似通过减持精准套现。据公开资料,实控人林皓在2024年4月以4.53元/股转让5.01%股份,较当日收盘价(4.51元)溢价0.4%,套现3.29亿元。此举恰逢公司净利润转亏前夜。

  基本面羸弱?

  北信源的经营基本面已陷入“收入萎缩-成本激增-现金流恶化”的恶性循环。

  一方面,公司的收入结构脆弱性疑似暴露。具体数据上,2024年政府客户收入下滑33.25%,金融客户收入下降28.31%,两大主力市场营收占比从63%降至52%;

  另一方面,公司成本或暴露相关管理问题。数据显示,军工客户成本激增134%,政府项目成本上升67%,导致营业成本同比增加33.19%,远超收入降幅(-24.31%)。

  此外,公司经营性现金流连续两年为负,2024年净流出7261万元,同比恶化200.87%;

  应收账款周转率0.89次:账期长达409天,5.17亿元营收中2.1亿元为应收账款,存在坏账风险;

  融资依赖度攀升:资产负债率36%,但流动比率1.36、速动比率0.96,短期偿债压力凸。

  注:此文为AI工具生成,不构成任何投资建议。

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