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  2024年,中药创新药龙头企业康缘药业交出了一份令市场失望的成绩单。报告期内,公司实现营收38.98亿元,同比下降19.86%;归母净利润3.92亿元,同比下滑15.58%;扣非净利润更是锐减27.29%。这是继2020年疫情冲击后,康缘药业再次陷入“营收净利双降”的困境。

  各业务线营收全线下滑 中药注射剂营收降近4成、库存激增

  从产品角度看,康缘药业的核心竞争力主要建立在其三大主力产品——热毒宁注射液、银杏二萜内酯葡胺注射液和金振口服液之上。其中,前两者分别属于呼吸感染与心脑血管领域的中药注射剂,长期贡献公司超半数营收。然而,2024年这两大核心产品的销量均出现断崖式下跌,导致公司业绩大幅下滑。

  年报数据显示,2024年康缘药业注射液产品实现的营业收入约为13.41亿元,同比下降38.33%。其中,热毒宁注射液销售量为4194.57万支,同比下降30.98%;银杏二萜内酯葡胺注射液销售量为560.19万支,同比下降47.86%。

  核心品种的溃退,与医保支付方式改革、药品集采常态化密不可分。近年来,医保控费政策持续收紧,中药注射剂因临床争议和性价比问题,在集采中议价能力较弱。以热毒宁注射液为例,其未被纳入2023年国家医保目录,导致医疗机构采购量骤减。与此同时,临床用药结构向创新化药和生物药倾斜,中药注射剂的市场空间被进一步压缩。

  销量下滑的连锁反应是库存激增。截至2024年末,热毒宁注射液库存量为1176.04万支,同比暴涨759.11%;银杏二萜内酯葡胺注射液库存量为149.76万支,同比增长140.77%,金振口服液库存也同比大增230.73%。

  截至2024年末,公司存货规模攀升至5.4亿元,创历史新高。其中库存商品2.58亿元,相比期初增长约110%。当期存货跌价准备约2550万元,而去年同期仅约505万元。库存商品未来若无法有效去库存,存货减值风险或仍将侵蚀利润表。

  为对冲注射剂颓势,康缘药业试图通过金振口服液和筋骨止痛凝胶打开新增长点。然而,口服液和凝胶剂规模相对较小,或难以弥补核心品种下滑的缺口。从治疗领域看,感染与呼吸、心脑血管、骨科等业务线营收全线下滑,公司的多品类协同战略显然尚未奏效。

  业绩承压之际关联交易愈发频繁溢价收购负资产兄弟公司是否涉及利益输送?

  业绩承压之际,康缘药业与大股东康缘集团的关联交易愈发频繁。2024年,公司两笔关联交易金额合计超4亿元,其中2.7亿元收购控股股东旗下生物药资产中新医药的交易尤为值得关注。

  2024年11月,康缘药业发布公告称拟以自有资金2.7亿元收购中新医药100%股权。康缘药业控股股东康缘集团持有中新医药70%股权,南京康竹(康缘集团全资子公司担任执行事务合伙人)持有中新医药30%股权。从股权关系看,中新医药为康缘药业兄弟公司,本次交易构成关联交易。

  据公告显示,此次交易采用资产基础法对企业股东全部权益价值进行评估,截至2023年12月31日,中新医药单体报表口径股东权益账面值为-3.59亿元,评估值2.72亿元,评估增值6.3亿元,增值率175.87%。

  然而需要关注的是,标的公司商业化前景不佳,且处于负资产状态,股权收购后仍需向康缘集团偿还借款及利息。公告显示,中新医药自成立以来仍处于亏损状态,截至2024年9月30日经审计的净资产为-4.23亿元。其中,中新医药存在对康缘集团的借款本金、利息合计4.79亿元。

  从商业化前景看,中新医药已获取4个创新药的6个临床批件,皆进入临床阶段。4个创新药分别为(rhNGF)重组人神经生长因子注射液、(rhNGF)重组人神经生长因子滴眼液、(GGGF1)三靶点长效减重(降糖)融合蛋白、(GGF7)双靶点长效降糖(减重)融合蛋白。

  各在研管线中,除(rhNGF)重组人神经生长因子注射液正在开展外伤、青光眼导致的视神经损伤的II期临床研究之外,其余各在研管线均处于临床Ⅰ期,未来能否成药面临极大不确定性。

  此外,占中新药业估值权重最高的GLP-1类药物,市场竞争日益激烈已趋于红海,抛开已有仿制药上市的单靶点GLP-1不谈,仅在多靶点GLP-1领域内国内就已有诸多处于临床后期的强力竞品,包括信达生物的玛仕度肽注射液、恒瑞医药的HRS9531 注射液、博瑞医药(维权)的BGM0504、翰森制药的HS-20094注射液。而中新医药相关在研管线仍处于临床Ⅰ期,研发进度远远落后于第一梯队,即使未来能够上市,能够获得的市场份额也相当有限。

  生物药研发具有高投入、长周期、高风险特性。中新医药核心管线尚处早期阶段,预计需投入超4亿元临床资金,且至少5年才能上市。在此期间,康缘药业需持续对其“输血”,这对于业绩大幅下滑的康缘药业而言无疑是沉重负担。

  同时,康缘药业的核心能力集中于中药研发与生产,缺乏生物药领域的经验积累。收购中新医药后,如何整合团队、技术、渠道?能否在生物药市场分得一杯羹?这些问题均无明确答案。从财务数据看,并表中新医药已导致公司2022-2023年净利润追溯下调,未来业绩拖累效应或进一步放大。

  值得一提的是,这并非康缘药业首次卷入关联交易争议。2024年7月,其子公司与江苏新基誉(康缘集团关联方)签订1.63亿元工程项目协议,而后者2023年营收为零,2024年上半年仅2000余万元收入,几乎完全依赖康缘药业业务。尽管公司坚称交易公允,但此类操作难免让投资者担忧利益输送可能性。

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