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周二,国际能源署大幅下调全球石油需求增长预期,预计2025年需求将降30%至73万桶/日,2026年进一步减缓至69万桶/日。主要原因是贸易摩擦加剧和电动车普及率上升,影响传统石油消费。在供应方面,OPEC+的增产决策加剧了油市供应过剩,预计2026年供应过剩将达到170万桶/日。

国际能源署(IEA)周二发布月度报告,显著下调了未来两年全球石油需求增长预期,并警告供应过剩问题将在2026年持续。

根据IEA的最新预测,2025年全球石油需求增长将降至73万桶/日,较之前预期减少约30%,而2026年需求增幅预计进一步减缓,仅为69万桶/日。

需求下调的主要原因包括贸易摩擦的负面影响和电动车普及率上升,而后者正在逐步取代传统石油消费,尤其是在全球多个发达国家和地区。

IEA分析师在报告中写道:

值得注意的是,地缘政治方面也出现重要进展。据央视新闻,上周末,美国与伊朗举行了自2022年以来的首次高层核谈判,双方均表示对话具有建设性,并计划本周再次会晤。若谈判取得实质进展,不排除伊朗重返全球石油出口市场,推动OPEC总产量进一步上行。

另外,IEA也指出了油市一些积极信号,包括全球石油库存保持在五年区间底部,第一季度需求增长为2023年以来最强,但整体市场前景仍然看跌。

受贸易摩擦和OPEC+增产决策影响,高盛和摩根大通等机构纷纷下调油价预测。通常比其他预测机构更为乐观的OPEC秘书处也在最新报告中承认市场恶化,下调了石油需求预测,尽管其预期仍高于IEA和华尔街的预测。

风险提示及免责条款

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