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  4月17日上午,贵金属突然跳水。

  截至发稿,COMEX黄金自3370美元/盎司高点短线跳水超30美元,最新报3351.7美元/盎司。

  COMEX白银直线下跌,盘中跌幅扩大至2.45%,最新报32.45美元/盎司。

  国内沪金、沪银主力合约纷纷跟随跳水。

  消息面上,今天凌晨美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示暂不降息。据CME“美联储观察”,美联储5月维持利率不变的概率提高至83.2%。

  而日本还表示可能加息。据证券时报报道,日本央行行长植田和男表示,尽管仍存在一些疲弱迹象,日本经济正在温和复苏,如果经济展望实现目标将会加息。他称计划在下周的会议期间与美联储主席及其他政策制定者进行会谈。此外,韩国中央银行韩国银行宣布将基准利率维持在2.75%不变。

  今年以来,多家商业银行频繁调整积存金业务,特别是从3月份至今,已有超过5家银行宣布调整积存金起购金额,涉及国有大行、全国性股份制银行、城商行等。

  4月15日,招商银行发布关于贵金属业务调整通告,近期黄金价格呈现较大幅度波动。根据黄金积存业务相关监管规定,该行将对零售黄金账户业务进行调整,自2025年4月21日(周一)起,黄金账户活期及黄金账户定投按金额认购的起点由750元调整为800元。

  据悉,这是招商银行年内第三次上调积存金的认购起点金额。此次调整后,该行的黄金账户活期买入起点及黄金账户定投起点从650元调升至800元,调整幅度超过20%。

  招商银行进一步提示,黄金价格可能因突发政策、市场情绪变化或国际事件等因素出现短期剧烈波动,进而导致黄金账户持仓市值快速变化。若出现境内外黄金价格波动剧烈的情况,投资者提交交易时刻的买卖金价可能与最新金价产生较大偏差,从而导致交易无法达成。请投资者关注市场行情,增强风险防范意识,合理评估自身风险承受能力,理性投资。

  自3月份以来,已有工商银行、中国银行、建设银行、招商银行、光大银行、宁波银行、东莞银行、四川天府银行等多家银行上调积存金起购门槛。调整后,这些银行积存金业务的起购门槛在750元至1000元不等。

  据证券日报报道,深圳市前海排排网基金销售有限责任公司理财师姚旭升告诉记者,银行近期上调积存金业务起购金额的举措主要基于以下考量:风险管理方面,面对金价持续攀升,银行通过提高投资门槛,有效抑制小额投资者因市场短期波动而产生的非理性交易行为。合规经营方面,随着金价持续上涨,适时上调起购门槛既确保业务开展的合规性,又向投资者传递了审慎投资的理念,引导市场参与者理性看待黄金投资的价值与风险,避免盲目跟风可能带来的损失。

  近日,投行高盛将2025年底金价目标从3300美元/盎司提高至3700美元/盎司,并预计到2026年年中金价将升至4000美元/盎司。这反映了央行购金力度超预期、衰退风险增加对ETF流入的提振,以及黄金作为避险资产的独特地位。高盛认为,由于特朗普政府在关税方面“一再翻转”,引发全球经济衰退的可能性越来越大,因此黄金价格还有进一步的上涨空间。

  天风证券日前表示,金银价格主要受关税扰动担忧升级影响,在美国全面征收关税引发全球经济衰退的担忧之后,投资者转而将美元作为避风港。与此同时,持有大量美债的外资可能抛售债券以反制关税,叠加美国众议院推进减税政策,长期美债承压。伴随关税扰动进一步深化、美债兑付风险加剧,美元信用弱化支点下持续看好黄金上行动力。

  银河证券称,美国对各国加征关税的背景下,各国与美国的摩擦加剧,对脱离美元体系的意愿加强,将使各国央行增加黄金储备。在美国经济衰退、滞胀预期升温等背景下,市场风险偏好将会下滑,黄金资产配置战略性提升,全球黄金ETF基金与全球各国央行加速增持黄金,有望推动金价继续上涨。

  申万宏源指出,央行购金主导金价,当前央行黄金储备仍偏低,全球信用格局持续重塑下金价上行趋势不改。白银方面,供给整体平稳,需求受光伏需求拉动,供需紧张状态维持,黄金价格上涨有利于白银金融属性的修复,银价维持偏强判断。

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