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  汇通财经APP讯——周四欧洲时段前,美元兑日元维持在142.60附近,日内自141.60的多月低位反弹逾百点。此次反弹主要受益于美元小幅企稳以及全球市场风险情绪的边际回暖,但整体仍未摆脱近三个月以来的下行趋势。技术面来看,美元兑日元142.00构成初步支撑,若有效跌破,或将加速向141.00关口靠拢;而短期反弹仍可能受阻于143.60区域,若突破144.00才有望引发更大幅度回升。

  贸易谈判释放积极信号,日元避险需求略有减弱

  本周,美国总统特朗普表示与日本的贸易谈判“取得重大进展”,并有望在90天内达成协议。日本首相石破茂也称与美方的对话“具建设性”。

  与此同时,日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正透露,美日双方将于本月再次举行会谈,凸显出两国在推进贸易对话上的意愿。

  “若贸易谈判取得实质性突破,可能短期内抑制日元的避险吸引力。”——野村证券首席外汇策略师KenjiMatsuda

  关税升级与政策不确定性拖累市场信心

  尽管日美谈判释放缓和信号,但整体贸易担忧情绪仍未缓解。特朗普近期宣布对关键矿产与高科技芯片启动新一轮进口审查,进一步激化与亚洲国家的贸易矛盾。

  美国国内企业也对政策信号频繁变化感到忧虑,这种不确定性对美元构成持续压力,推动避险资产需求维持高位。

  日本央行与美联储政策分化加剧汇率波动

  近期市场预期日本央行可能在2025年内再次加息,多位官员也暗示若经济前景稳定,将逐步退出宽松政策。BoJ委员长谷川纯子表示:“若当前物价与经济增长预测得以实现,央行将持续加息并调整货币支持力度。”

  “相比之下,美联储可能最快于6月重启降息周期,这加剧了美元的相对劣势。”——据市场调查显示

  美联储主席鲍威尔虽强调不急于降息,但市场仍押注2025年将至少降息三次。叠加近期1.4%的强劲零售数据,也未能显著扭转市场对经济放缓的担忧。

  编辑观点:

  尽管美日贸易谈判出现一定进展,但全球贸易局势仍暗流涌动,特朗普的关税政策走向依旧不明,制约了市场风险偏好回升的力度。与此同时,日本央行和美联储在货币政策上的分歧进一步加剧了日元升值预期。

  从当前走势看,美元兑日元的短线反弹更像是技术性修复,尚难改变整体看跌结构。除非美联储释放更为强硬的鹰派信号,或全球贸易局势出现实质性缓解,日元或将继续维持强势地位。

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