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  来源:证券之星

  市场全天震荡分化,三大指数涨跌不一。

  盘面上,从板块来看,银行股维持强势,工、农、中三大行续创历史新高。电力股再度走强,华银电力等涨停。PEEK材料概念股集体大涨,中欣氟材涨停。下跌方面,次新股展开调整,港迪技术跌超10%。

  截至收盘,沪指涨0.03%,深成指跌0.58%,创业板指跌0.68%。市场热点较为杂乱,个股跌多涨少,全市场超3600只个股下跌。多只高位股尾盘走出反包走势,安记食品、国芳集团均上演“地天板”。沪深两市全天成交额1.11万亿,较上个交易日缩量1207亿。

  01. 资金回流防御性板块

  今日,A股市场震荡调整,沪指3300点得而复失,成交额再度缩量。

  值得注意的是,A股三大指数早盘一度跳水,对于调整原因,据证券时报消息,分析人士认为,消息面上并无明显利空出现。美国所谓“对等关税”之后,不少股票走势较强,多头优势也较为明显。此前一段时间,各期限的股指期货出现了连续贴水的行情,可能表明多头在现货上的力度比较大。随着行情深入以及五一长假临近,市场可能出现了一些获利了结的情况。

  市场调整之下,资金开始回流电力、银行等防御性板块。

  对于电力方向,广发证券表示,当前电力板块基本面持续改善,煤价下行叠加容量电价机制优化,火电企业盈利修复确定性增强,水电及绿电亦具备结构性机会。建议关注三大投资组合:一是稳健防御型水电及区域能源;二是弹性火电标的;三是受政策驱动的绿电进攻组合。

  对于银行方向,2025年中央金融机构注资特别国债今天启动发行,发行金额为1650亿元,发行期限为5年期,根据预算安排,今年拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元。中国银河证券认为,大行注资首期特别国债发行,稳步推进增资落地,有助增强银行风险抵御能力、助力实体经济。继续看好银行板块配置价值。

  此外,宠物经济概念受相关个股业绩超预期催化而逆势走强,乖宝宠物、中宠股份双双爆发,股价均创历史新高。美容护理等新消费方向涨幅同样居前。

  消息面上,中宠股份2024年实现营收44.6亿元,同比增长19.1%,净利润3.94亿元,同比增长68.9%,营收净利再创新高;乖宝宠物2024年实现营收52.44亿元,同比增长21.22%,净利润6.24亿元,同比增长45.68%。

  作为新兴消费的重要方向,近年来我国宠物行业市场规模持续扩张,中国企业自主品牌建设、全球化布局成为国内宠物企业业绩增长的两大重要支撑。对于宠物经济等新消费方向,银河证券指出,情感经济、科学养宠消费趋势的变化将带来结构性机遇,相关行业均存持续扩容预期,相关企业盈利能力有望进一步增强。

  另一方面,科技股方向在经历昨日反弹后未能走出延续性,大多呈现横盘震荡走势,昨日略有起色的AI应用、算力等方向跌幅居前,可见市场热点依旧维持高速轮动。

  整体而言,市场在经历连续反弹后短线或重回分歧整理,故分析人士建议,应对上耐心等待短线风险充分释放,后续哪些方向和个股能够获资金回流修复仍是观盘重点之一。

  02. 社保基金最新重仓股出炉

  随着上市公司密集披露一季报,前十大股东的变化透露出了大资金的动向。

  根据已披露的公告,截至一季度末,社保基金共现身113只个股前十大流通股东名单,合计持股市值达到323.48亿元。

  从行业角度看,社保基金重仓股中基础化工行业个股数量最多,共有17只;医药生物行业紧随其后,为15只。有色金属行业则有8只。

  从持股市值角度看,有色金属行业社保基金持股市值最高,合计达到71.53亿元;基础化工、医药生物行业社保基金持股市值分别为44.89亿元、33.93亿元。

  从个股角度看,截至一季度末,20只个股获社保基金持仓市值超过5亿元。其中,云铝股份获社保基金持股市值居于首位,达到25.13亿元;万华化学、西部超导、中国巨石、蓝思科技社保基金持股市值均在10亿元以上。

  云铝股份一季报显示,全国社保基金118组合为公司第四大流通股东,且该只社保基金自2022年第三季度开始持续重仓云铝股份,重仓时间超过2年。

  万华化学社保基金持股市值为14.26亿元,全国社保基金103组合在今年一季度增持了该股,持股占流通A股比例由0.66%提升至0.68%。

  从业绩角度看,113只社保基金重仓股中,72股归母净利润实现同比增长(其中有9股净利润增幅超过100%),4股今年一季度扭亏为盈,4股实现减亏,报喜比例超过七成。

  03. A股上涨仍有空间

  除了上市公司,各大机构近期也密集公布一季报。券商资管的基金经理在报告中纷纷谈及对于近期市场的看法,对于下一阶段的市场表示乐观看待。

  对于近期关税等市场焦点,中泰证券资管副总经理姜诚表示仍有底气,原因有两方面:一是我国完备的产业链和巨大的内需给经济提供了韧性;二是可运用的政策空间还有很大余量。此外,四月是传统的财报季,市场或许会更聚焦于政策对基本面的长中短期影响。

  对于近期市场表现,东方红资产管理的周云表示,“尽管短期的波动巨大,但我对于中国经济和市场的中长期依然持乐观态度,会结合市场与宏观环境的变化,以乐观的心态去调整组合。”

  周云进一步表示,就国内而言,中国全新的周期已经悄悄开启,外围的冲击恰恰是促进国内经济转型和改革的动力。另一方面,以AI为代表的科技创新方兴未艾,今年很可能是AI应用兴起的元年。相信AI驱动的新一轮产业革命很可能已经开启,对于未来的变化,需要大胆想象,小心求证。

  对于股票市场后续行情,招商证券认为,在ETF维护指数稳定的背景下,A股下行风险可控,上涨有空间,后续建议关注三个方向:

  其一,局部景气回升,包括券商、大消费、军工、AIDC、半导体自主可控;其二,高自由现金流方向;其三,低渗透率且高成长赛道,包括AI、人形机器人等。

  -End-

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