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美联储发出最新警告。

今日凌晨,美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告,其中显示,随着经济不确定性加剧,尤其是关税方面的不确定性,几个地区的前景“显著恶化”。根据统计,在这份报告中,总共107次提到“关税”一词,与“不确定性”有关的词汇出现89次。

另外,近期关于解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的风波持续搅动美国市场。美国总统特朗普最新表示:“我认为鲍威尔不降息是在犯错误,我可能会给鲍威尔打电话。”

值得一提的是,在此之前,特朗普表示他“从没有打算”解除鲍威尔的职务。据知情人士透露,特朗普改变主意与美国财政部长贝森特和商务部长卢特尼克有关,知情人士称,他们警告特朗普罢免鲍威尔或引发市场动荡和法律纠纷。

美联储重磅发布

北京时间4月24日凌晨,美联储公布了最新一期的美国经济状况报告(简称《褐皮书》),这是“关税风暴”后的第一份《褐皮书》,因此备受市场关注。

《褐皮书》显示,随着经济不确定性加剧,尤其是关税方面的不确定性,几个地区的前景“显著恶化”。各地区价格均有所上涨,大多数地区指出,企业预计关税将导致投入成本增长加快。

在美联储最新的《褐皮书》中,“关税”一词共被提及了107次,是上一期《褐皮书》两倍以上的频率。与“不确定”的相关词汇也高频出现了89次。

这份最新版本的《褐皮书》由亚特兰大联储编写,所用信息均截至4月14日或之前收集。该报告收录了美联储12个地区的商业状况评论和轶事,信息直接来源于企业和其他联系人。美联储官员们将于5月6日至7日召开下一次FOMC会议。

《褐皮书》显示,美国各地区物价普遍上涨,企业预计关税导致投入成本上升。许多公司报告称,其供应商已发出成本上涨的通知,大多数企业表示将计划把更高的价格转嫁给消费者。企业报告称已增加关税附加费或缩短定价周期,以应对不确定的贸易政策。

特朗普的关税计划变化频繁,为进口产品和原材料的企业带来了极大的不确定性。特朗普暂停了对几十个国家征收所谓“对等关税”的计划,但仍实施了统一的10%关税。这些关税是在此前对钢铁、铝和汽车进口产品征收的基础上追加的。

《褐皮书》显示,美国就业总体保持不变或略有上升。报告指出,美国政府职位和依赖政府资金的机构职位出现下降。这很可能反映了特朗普政府缩减联邦劳动力人员并削减成本:几个地区报告称,企业在招聘方面采取观望态度,在经济形势更明朗前暂停或放缓了招聘。此外,零星报告显示企业正在为裁员做准备。

报告还提到,消费者在关税相关价格上涨前赶紧购买车辆和非耐用品,同时国际游客数量下降。此外,非汽车类消费整体下降。

《褐皮书》还显示,运输活动略有增长。制造业表现不一,但三分之二的地区表示制造业活动变化不大或有所下降。能源行业略有增长,多个地区的农业状况相对稳定。

“解雇鲍威尔”风波

当地时间4月23日,特朗普最新表示:“我认为鲍威尔犯了一个错。(自特朗普1月20日宣誓就任美国总统以来)美联储不再降息是在犯错。我可能会给鲍威尔打电话。”

另据《华尔街日报》最新报道,据知情人士透露,白宫内部此前对特朗普公开批评鲍威尔的言论十分重视,甚至有白宫律师私下研究罢免鲍威尔的法律方案,包括是否可以因“正当理由”罢免,因为根据法律,美联储理事只能在任期结束前因正当理由被罢免,而法院通常将“正当理由”解读为渎职或不当行为。

最终,特朗普改变主意,并表示,他“从没有打算”解除鲍威尔的职务。特朗普指责相关说法是媒体炒作,他只是希望鲍威尔能在利率问题上采取更加积极的行动。

《华尔街日报》报道称,特朗普改变主意与美国财政部长贝森特和商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克有关,知情人士称,他们警告特朗普,罢免鲍威尔或引发市场动荡和法律纠纷。

一位知情人士补充称,卢特尼克还表示:“哪怕炒掉鲍威尔,特朗普也难以在利率上得到实际改变,因为美联储理事会的其他成员可能会采取与鲍威尔类似的货币政策。”

美媒分析称,尽管特朗普嘴上称对市场涨跌毫不在意,但他本人和幕僚确实在密切关注华尔街与大企业对其议程的反应。一位高级官员称,特朗普仍在密切关注市场动态。

值得一提的是,欧洲央行行长拉加德也在最新的讲话中表示支持鲍威尔,称鲍威尔正在尽其所能履行美联储主席的职责。

她在《华盛顿邮报》的一次活动上表示:“美联储主席的才能和能力让我感到安心。我知道,他正在竭尽全力、严守纪律地履行他的使命。”拉加德称:“非常尊重鲍威尔主席,我知道他正在尽其所能服务美国人民,维护金融稳定,这与价格稳定息息相关。”

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