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  来源:海豚投研

  阿斯麦(ASML)于北京时间2025年4月16日下午的美股盘前发布了2025年第一季度财报(截止2025年3月),要点如下:

  1、核心数据:指引和订单,都有回落。阿斯麦(ASML)在2025年第一季度实现营收77.4亿欧元,符合市场预期(77.4亿欧元)。本季度收入的同比增长,主要是受EUV持续增长的带动。而环比层面有所回落,主要是受季节性因素影响。公司在2025年第一季度净利润为23.6亿欧元,同比增长92.4%,好于市场预期(22.4亿欧元)。一季度公司净新增订单回落至39.4亿欧元,环比下滑44.5%,低于市场预期(40亿+)。

  2、各项业务情况:EUV持续增长,其余产品季节性回落。系统销售收入仍是公司最主要的收入来源,占据公司收入接近3/4。公司本季度的增长,主要来自于EUV的持续增长。具体来看,EUV出货14台,同比增加3台;ArFi出货25台,同比增加5台。在EUV占比提升的情况下,本季度公司光刻系统的出货均价进一步提升至7460万欧元。

  3、各地区收入表现:韩国收入持续增长,中国大陆收入继续回落。本季度韩国、中国大陆、美国和中国台湾是公司主要收入来源,四者合计收入占比达到99%。其中受海力士等存储需求的影响下,公司本季度在韩国的收入占比达到4成。受此前积压订单逐渐消化以及出口限制等因素影响,中国大陆的收入环比继续回落,但占比仍维持在27%。

  4、阿斯麦(ASML)业绩指引:2025年第二季度预期收入72-77亿欧元(低于市场预期77.6亿欧元)和毛利率(GAAP)为50-53%(市场预期52.3%)。

  海豚君整体观点:下滑的指引和骤降的订单,难给市场信心。

  阿斯麦ASML本季度的营收和毛利率均达到了公司此前的指引。其中毛利率的超预期提升,主要是受服务收入占比及EUV收入占比提升带来的结构性影响。公司的经营费用相对平稳,最终本季度的利润端也比较稳健。

  虽然本季度的数据还行,但公司下季度的指引难以令人满意。公司预期二季度的收入为72-77亿欧元和毛利率为50-53%,两项核心指引都低于一季度。而一季度传统上本身就是公司季节性的低点。

  此前市场本身就对公司有所担心:1)半导体终端市场的回暖有所乏力;2)英特尔、三星等都大幅削减了2025年的资本开支预期。而公司一季度的净新增订单环比下滑44%,至39.4亿欧元(低于调整后的买方预期40.6亿欧元)。对于阿斯麦ASML,从本次给出的指引和订单情况看,并没看到需求明显好转的迹象,这将进一步降低市场对公司的预期。

  而在这情况下,虽然公司依然维持了300-350亿的全年收入预期,但市场对公司的全年预期也可能将下调至300-330亿的区间。另外,“关税政策”的持续调整,也可能给公司带来更多的压力和挑战。

  当前公司面临着“半导体周期的担忧+部分客户资本开支削减+关税政策”的影响,而在这些不确定性的影响下,如果公司不能给市场注入强有力的信心,公司股价仍将受到明显的波动和冲击。至于市场关心的管理层交流及关税看法,欢迎关注海豚君后续的电话会相关纪要内容。

  一、核心数据:指引和订单,都有回落

  1.1收入端:阿斯麦(ASML)在2025年第一季度实现营收77.4亿欧元,符合公司指引上限(75-80亿欧元)。本季度收入同比46.3%,主要受益于EUV系列产品收入增加的带动。收入端的环比下滑,主要是受季节性因素影响,通常一季度是全年的相对低点。

  1.2毛利及毛利率:阿斯麦(ASML)在2025年第一季度实现毛利41.8亿欧元,同比增长55%。具体毛利率方面,公司本季度毛利率54%,继续回升,超公司指引上限(52-53%),主要是受服务收入及EUV占比提升的结构性影响。

  虽然本季度毛利率超预期提升,但公司下季度的毛利率预期相对较低,给出了50-53%的指引区间。结合公司全年预期的51-53%来看,公司一季度的高毛利率有季节性的结构性因素影响。而在系统收入和服务收入相对平稳的状态下,公司毛利率仍将维持在当前的区间内。

  1.3经营费用端:阿斯麦(ASML)在2025年第一季度经营费用为14.42亿欧元,同比增长10.5%。

  具体来看:

  1)研发费用:本季度研发费用11.61亿欧元,同比增加12.5%,公司研发投入稳步增加。研发费用率为15%,有所回升,受本季度收入季节性回落的影响;

  2)销售管理及行政费用:本季度销售及管理费用2.81亿欧元,同比增加2.7%;由于公司的客户主要在B端,销售费用相对稳定,本季度销售管理费用率为3.6%。

  1.4净利润端:阿斯麦(ASML)在2025年第一季度净利润为23.55亿欧元,同比增长92.4%。虽然公司本季度收入端受季节性因素的影响,但公司本季度利润端同比仍有明显增长,主要得益于公司本季度毛利率达到了超预期的54%。

  虽然公司一季度财报数据还不错,但公司给出的下季度指引相对疲软。公司预期的下季度收入和毛利率都将出现下滑的情况,结合公司一季度的净新增订单情况也仅有39.4亿欧元,也低于调整后的买方预期(40.6亿)。

  虽然台积电的全年资本开支展望不错,但英特尔和三星对资本开支的预期都相对谨慎,这也直接影响了公司的经营面预期。当前在“关税政策”持续调整的影响下,对公司及行业都增添了不确定性。而公司本次疲软指引和较低的订单情况,都难以给市场带来信心。海豚君也将整理后续电话会内容,可以着重关注公司管理层对这方面传达的具体信息。

  二、细分数据情况:EUV持续增长,其余产品季节性回落

  阿斯麦(ASML)的业务由系统销售收入和服务收入两部分构成,其中系统销售收入占比接近3/4,是公司最核心的收入来源。

  2.1各项业务情况

  1)系统销售收入

  阿斯麦(ASML)的系统销售收入在2025年第一季度实现57.4亿欧元,同比增长44.7%。系统销售业务的同比增长,主要是EUV和DUV系列产品的带动。而环比层面,本季度系统销售收入有所回落,主要是受季节性因素影响,除EUV外,其余各产品收入均有所回落。

  公司系统销售收入主要来自于EUV和ArFi的两块,两者合计占比达到89%。从出货情况来看:公司本季度EUV出货14台,同比增长3台;公司本季度ArFi出货25台,同比增加5台。

  结合出货情况,海豚君测算阿斯麦ASML本季度光刻系统的均价有所提升至7460万欧元/台。其中EUV平均单台价格继续增长至2.3亿欧元,而ArFi的单台均价相对稳定,维持在7580万欧元左右。

  此外,公司本季度净新增订单再次回落至39.4亿欧元,其中主要以逻辑领域需求为主。在这些订单结构中,逻辑领域的需求大约在6成左右,而存储端需求仍维持在4成。

  2)服务收入

  阿斯麦(ASML)的服务收入在2025年第一季度实现20亿欧元,同比增长51.1%。阿斯麦的服务收入,主要包括设备维护等项目,受行业周期影响较小。随着公司设备出货数量的增加,公司服务收入的增速也有所加快,当前公司的服务收入已经维持在20亿欧元左右。

  2.2各地区收入情况

  阿斯麦ASML本季度收入主要来自于韩国、中国大陆、中国台湾和美国,四者的合计收入占比达到99%。其中受韩国存储等需求提升的影响,本季度韩国地区收入占比达到40%。

  随着中国大陆地区客户积压订单的消化以及出口限制等方面的影响,本季度中国大陆地区收收入占比维持在27%。

  阿斯麦ASML当前的EUV占总收入的比重已经达到4成以上,公司未来的业绩也主要受到EUV的影响。而对于EUV的产品采购,公司的主要客户仍将集中于韩国、美国及中国台湾。而中国大陆地区受出口限制等因素的影响,还是将集中在DUV的采购。

  由于阿斯麦ASML处于半导体产业链的最上游,受整体行业面的影响。虽然半导体处于从底部回暖阶段,但当前的整体半导体终端市场仍显疲态。虽然台积电和海力士都有提升资本开支的预期,但英特尔和三星都对资本开支相对谨慎。受AI需求的带动下,公司的产品出货呈现结构化的特征,而整体半导体周期的表现仍将对公司的经营面产生影响。

  此外,“关税政策”也将对公司在各地区的出货及终端市场产生一定的影响,给公司的业绩增添不确定性。

  

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