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  华尔街见闻

  巴克莱认为,尽管特朗普撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的可能性仍属低概率事件,但相关压力和噪音仍可能持续到鲍威尔任期结束,一旦市场将未来的宽松政策解读为受到特朗普政府干预的结果,美元的下行风险将加剧。

  特朗普连日公开抨击美联储主席鲍威尔,无论鲍威尔是否屈服,对美元都是坏消息。

  周一,美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上再次发帖,抨击鲍威尔是“太迟先生”和“大输家”,暗示如果美联储不尽快降息,经济可能放缓。这已是特朗普连续第三天在欧洲央行降息后公开呼吁美联储跟进。

  特朗普炮轰下,隔夜美元暴跌至去年10月份以来的低点,资金加速流向瑞郎、日元和黄金等避险资产。

  前高盛首席外汇分析师RobinBrooks认为这可能是2018年底美联储政策转向的重演,美联储可能再次屈服于政治压力而加速降息。Brooks在社交媒体上指出:

  如果按照2018年这一剧本,当美联储开始降息后,美元在经历初期下跌后,可能会出现反弹。然而巴克莱则警告,如果鲍威尔屈服于政治压力,美元将面临更严重贬值风险。

  鲍威尔屈服,美元崩?

  在最新研究报告中,巴克莱外汇策略团队警告,如果美联储独立性受到质疑,美元风险“大到不容忽视”。

  巴克莱研究团队认为,特朗普政府的政策压力已经使美元处于特别脆弱的状态。报告指出:“市场已经开始考虑去美元化、储备减少以及从美国资产超配状态撤资的可能性。”

  在这种情况下,对美联储的干扰将进一步对美元造成下行压力。

  巴克莱的ThemistoklisFiotakis等分析师警告:“美联储独立性面临风险,对于当代全球金融架构中最重要的金融机构来说,这是一个带来非常显著尾部风险的事件,不仅对美元,也对全球金融系统构成威胁。”

  巴克莱表示,尽管特朗普撤换美联储主席鲍威尔的可能性仍属低概率事件,但美联储独立性受损的风险已成为美元走势中最值得关注的尾部风险,相关压力和噪音仍可能持续到鲍威尔任期结束,在这种环境下,美元实际上没有理由交易在远高于公平价值的水平。

  巴克莱警告,一旦市场将未来的宽松政策解读为受到特朗普政府干预的结果,美元的下行风险将加剧。

  然而,值得注意的是,巴克莱也承认,央行信誉丧失导致金融条件收紧的历史案例也很多,巴西就是最近的例子,该国在全球宽松背景下反而加息。

  风险提示及免责条款

  市场有风险,投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议,也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资,责任自负。

  作者:张铃

  4月21日晚,三博脑科多名内部人士告诉经济观察报,他们是在看到公告后才知晓张阳被留置的消息,他们对此消息感到意外。其中一名内部人士说:“就在前两天,他还接受了央媒采访。”

  4月21日晚,三博脑科(301293.SZ)公告称,其收到内蒙古自治区监察委员会签发的关于其控股股东、实际控制人之一暨董事长张阳的个人《留置通知书》和《立案通知书》。

  经济观察报记者致电张阳个人手机,显示已关机。他最新的朋友圈更新于4月16日,内容是他转发的家乡某视频号对他的采访。

  4月21日晚,三博脑科多名内部人士告诉经济观察报,他们是在看到公告后才知晓张阳被留置的消息,他们对此消息感到意外。其中一名内部人士说:“就在前两天,他还接受了央媒采访。”

  三博脑科称,目前,公司已对相关工作进行了妥善安排,日常经营管理由高管团队负责,公司及子公司生产经营秩序正常。公司其他控股股东、实际控制人及其他董事、监事和高级管理人员均正常履职,公司控制权未发生变化,董事会运作正常,上述事项不会对公司日常生产经营产生重大影响。公司将持续关注后续进展情况,并严格按照相关规定及时履行信息披露义务并提示相关风险。

  公开信息显示,张阳出生于1965年10月,是黑龙江齐齐哈尔人,1984年进入北京理工大学机电学院力学工程系就读。2004年至2025年3月,任三博脑科总经理;2014年至今,任三博脑科董事长。此外,张阳担任中国非公立医疗机构协会副会长、中国医院协会民营医院管理分会副会长、北京市非公立医疗机构协会终身名誉会长。

  2023年5月,三博脑科上市,目前,其总市值为93亿元。据三博脑科2024年年报,目前其共运营了8家医院,分别位于北京、重庆、昆明、福建、成都和河南。三博脑科未在此次对张阳实施留置的内蒙古自治区运营医院。

  三博脑科上市后不久,张阳在接受经济观察报专访时提到,三博脑科不收患者红包,不靠药品耗材增加收入,摒弃各种暗箱操作,每年拒收的红包数额达数百万元,同时给到医生高于公立医院的阳光收入。

  2025年3月4日,三博脑科发布公告称,根据其经营发展及管理需要,张阳辞去总经理职务,仍担任董事、董事长及董事会战略委员会主任委员职务。

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