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  来源:时代周报

  随着特朗普关税政策的不确定加剧,国际金价震荡上扬并多次刷新历史新高。

  据央视新闻报道,当地时间4月15日,特朗普签署行政令,调查美国依赖进口关键矿物的安全风险。关税不确定性加剧,引发黄金避险需求升温。

  4月16日,伦敦现货黄金再创历史新高,向上最高触及3307.33美元/盎司高位,日内上涨约2.40%。

  A股贵金属板块集体走强,截至当日收盘,赤峰黄金涨8.08%,山金国际涨超6.15%,二者股价均创历史新高。另外,西部黄金、ST中润涨超5%,山东黄金、四川黄金等跟涨。

  此前,华尔街大行再掀黄金唱多潮。瑞银将金价预测上调至3500美元/盎司,摩根大通则预测2025年央行黄金购买量将达到约850吨,并认为金价达到4000美元/盎司的速度将“超出预期”。

  另外,高盛也将2025年底金价目标价从3300美元/盎司大幅上调至3700美元/盎司,在极端情况下甚至预测黄金可能触及4500美元/盎司。

  瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室(CIO)团队对时代周报记者表示,除了避险需求和战术投机者的参与外,黄金的配置需求端最近也发生许多结构性转变,比如允许险资配金、各国央行提高黄金份额等。从长期配置来看,瑞银建议,在美元平衡投资组合中配置5%的黄金是最佳选择。

  4月金价高位震荡

  最近,黄金价格波动明显。4月4日,伦敦现货黄金价格强势突破3167美元/盎司,刷新历史最高纪录。随后上演“高台跳水”,连续下跌,4月7日收盘报2980.85美元/盎司,跌破3000美元的心理关口。4月8日略有回升,价格在3000美元/盎司附近震荡。

  这场金价异动的背后是远超市场预期的“对等关税”。据新华社报道,当地时间4月2日,特朗普在白宫签署关于所谓“对等关税”的行政令,宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征10%的“最低基准关税”。

  此后,美国关税政策反复修改。在强硬推出“对等关税”后不久,特朗普却令人意外地“逆转态度”宣布,已授权对不采取报复行动的国家实施90天的关税暂缓。

  特朗普多次改变关税立场,市场担忧加剧,黄金开启“狂飙”行情。4月10日,伦敦现货黄金价格强势突破此前高点,收盘报3175.025美元/盎司。4月11日,国际金价继续突破,收盘报3238.17美元/盎司。

  4月10日,上海黄金交易所发布《关于继续加强近期市场风险控制工作的通知》称,近期国际形势复杂多变,贵金属价格波动较大,市场风险加剧。提示投资者做好风险防范工作,合理控制仓位,理性投资。

  当地时间4月10日,美国市场出现罕见的股债汇三杀的行情。美股三大指数集体收跌,纳指跌4.31%,标普500指数跌3.46%,道指跌2.5%。美债抛售持续,美国30年期国债收益率在一天内上涨12个基点,至4.85%。美元全线走弱,美元指数跌破100大关,为2023年7月以来首次。

  随后,国际金价持续攀升拉伸,4月14日,伦敦现货黄金价格盘中最高报3245.73美元/盎司,续刷历史新高,当晚跌破3200美元/盎司位置。4月16日,国际金价再创新高,突破3300美元/盎司关口。

  险资买金规模或达250亿美元

  特朗普在关税政策上的反复无常,加剧了投资者对美国资产的不安情绪。随着避险情绪的飙升,大量资金涌入黄金市场。

  世界黄金协会(WGC)的数据显示,4月迄今为止,流入中国实物黄金ETF的投资已超过第一季度的总流入,并超过了美国黄金ETF的流入量。

  4月14日,世界黄金协会高级市场策略师里德在社交媒体上表示,4月前11天,中国黄金ETF持仓增加29.1吨。相比之下,一季度的流入量为23.5吨。

  此外,国内险资的潜在需求也是黄金上涨一个重要原因。紫金天风期货贵金属研究员刘诗瑶对时代周报记者表示,国内已有4家大型保险公司注册成为上海黄金交易所的会员。据测算,他们可用于投资黄金的资产规模高达250亿美元。若按照3000美元/盎司的价格计算,这将带来每年约833万盎司的额外黄金需求,占全球黄金需求的5%。

  高盛最新报告预计,现货黄金价格到今年年底将升至3700美元/盎司,到2026年年中将升至4000美元/盎司。高盛坚信,黄金在对冲经济衰退风险方面具有得天独厚的优势。

  知名经济学家洪灝于近期发文表示,黄金价格的飙升并非因一时之乱,而是市场悲观情绪与资金流向预期长期作用的结果。黄金价格的历史性上涨不仅仅是因为全球避险需求,更折射出现在美元霸权的裂痕、各国政策的博弈与多层次市场动态的复杂交织。

  刘诗瑶进一步表示,2025年的宏观环境对黄金来说似乎仍然非常有利。因市场持续担忧关税对全球经济的影响,货币市场定价了年内3次的降息幅度,由于黄金是无息资产,降息通常利好黄金价格。

  数据显示,在2024财年,美国联邦预算赤字飙升至1.9万亿美元,赤字率高达6.6%,这一水平仅次于二战时期、2008年金融危机及2020的特殊情况。

  “美国经济当前面临的最大问题在于其不可持续的财政轨迹,这也是本轮金价大涨的逻辑之一。”刘诗瑶表示,黄金的避险价值在当前阶段明显优于美元和美债。

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